73 cent Aussie?
- Thread starter loyek590
- Start date
What time frame are you looking at. On one side you talk about mounts/years of time frame and subsequently you talk about an intraday trade with extremely tight stop. Does not really fit into the same "book". Medium to long term Aussie and particularly the Kiwi can lose a lot more value as function of poor resource and dairy demand. The entire bubble of the past years in Australia and NZ has almost entirely been built on top of the Chinese consumer and government directives. Look at most Australian and NZ cities: Retail property pricing is almost entirely driven by Chinese investors.
yes, that's the way I have always looked at it. AUD just a proxy for China. I am constantly adding and getting stopped out, but the core position may be quite old. All that matters is the current average price and the first stop.
no, I have been short the aussie against usd for a long time, and I have the accrued interest to remind me. There have been some brief excursions on the long side, but they never last very long. But here I am short again at 73 cents? Anybody want to do the limbo and see just how low you can go? At 1.00 on the dx that usd is going to start seeing some demand destruction.
and that my friend is why I never take a profit. You can be a loser with a loss full of hope that for some reason the market will miraculously turn back in your favor, or you can be a winner full of fear that for some reason God will get mad at you for making easy money and will turn the market on you.
Or, you can just be a trend trader and always believe what has gone up will keep going up. And just keep betting on it until it does actually turn on you.
agree, and it is probably hard to get around building a position in phases when wanting to trade longer holding periods.
To be fair this was a 2-3 hour trade not a multi day one. I was expecting a bounce off of a support level (admittedly probably not a strong support) around my target and could then make a decision after that. Instead it was a strong flush. That being said the target was probably a bit conservative.
Playing devils advocate I've probably lost more money swinging for home runs than I have taking consistent measured trades with defined targets. We could twist the logic many ways in hindsight.