700B Plan Priced In Already?

SPY EOD after 700B is approved

  • drops >10%

    Votes: 12 12.2%

  • drops >5%

    Votes: 6 6.1%

  • drops >2%

    Votes: 14 14.3%

  • +/-2%

    Votes: 23 23.5%

  • gains >2%

    Votes: 18 18.4%

  • gains >5%

    Votes: 14 14.3%

  • gains >10%

    Votes: 11 11.2%
  • Total voters
    98
$700B or not I'm not sure this will help us overall. The big difference between now and great depression is that the Government is already running a huge deficit, on top of the current account deficit. Also what foreign treasury investments does the US Government hold that it could cash in? In fact the US is debtor and debt is all held by foreigners. As the global growth falls and US consumers buy less imported goods this will result in less recycled dollars invested back into treasury debt by Chin and Japan et al.

Bottom line is that i-rates will be forced up to attract foreign investment. This will place farther downward pressure on the economy. Fed rate cuts will only depreciate the currency and force commodity prices back up.
 
Quote from S2007S:

This time its different, fighting the fed has been the way to go since they began cutting rates....This IS NOT the climax to the bear market, this is going to be the longest bear market in history, there is not one catalyst for this market to be even slightly bullish, sell the rallies, the bear market will be here for many years to come.
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i think you will find there is a great catalyst...huge buying for some inexplicable reason

the market does what it wants, not what you want it to. I am long ES still from 1150, still a superb trade risk reward wise. If i get stopped out boo hoo i lost 70 points :)

but i doubt it. the crash will come in a few years time and ill be out by then and looking for a short
 
I have never seen a big market up move where ALL the volume on over 800 stocks is one sided and long. Of course, I have only been watching this one sided trading thingy for three days.
 
Regardless of whether its approved, the market will rally from here. All the fear in the market. Every man and his dog that is going to sell has sold. All the margin players have been called. We're just building a base now. A 2-3% rally in the next month is highly likely.

Runningbear
 
Quote from Trendytrader:

$700B or not I'm not sure this will help us overall. The big difference between now and great depression is that the Government is already running a huge deficit, on top of the current account deficit. Also what foreign treasury investments does the US Government hold that it could cash in? In fact the US is debtor and debt is all held by foreigners. As the global growth falls and US consumers buy less imported goods this will result in less recycled dollars invested back into treasury debt by Chin and Japan et al.

Bottom line is that i-rates will be forced up to attract foreign investment. This will place farther downward pressure on the economy. Fed rate cuts will only depreciate the currency and force commodity prices back up.
More...

Trendytrader isn't just talking. He's clearly someone who reads. Reads history and knows the facts. Unlike most people watching this financial tsunami.

When the U.S. government (and the manufacturing associated with WWII) bailed out our free market system in the 30s and 40s, the U.S wasn't in debt to foreign governments. This is an entirely new situation. I'm not saying that it's worse, just that it's uncharted territory.
 
well ving he obviously doesnt read enough history.

pretty much every time there has been a 'disaster' scenario that everyone could forsee people often have said this is 'new territory', 'unprecedented' and 'this time its going to be different'.

did that ever stop a massive rally out of nowhere for no explicable reason? no and it wont this time either in all likelihood

name me a time in history there was a collapse that was forseen by your average joe...
 
Quote from BlackBison:

well ving he obviously doesnt read enough history.

pretty much every time there has been a 'disaster' scenario that everyone could forsee people often have said this is 'new territory', 'unprecedented' and 'this time its going to be different'.

did that ever stop a massive rally out of nowhere for no explicable reason? no and it wont this time either in all likelihood

name me a time in history there was a collapse that was forseen by your average joe...
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What are you talking about? I was just commenting on the one post that pointed out the difference between this disaster and a previous one. I never said this wasn't inevitable.

Secondly, the stock market took over a decade to recover after the crash of 29. So what if you get another pop as you're seeing today. As you said, yourself, we can't predict where the market will be when this mess is over, nor can we predict how long the mess will last.

By the way, as long as average Joe keeps voting other average Joes into office, we'll never have anyone in charge who knows what they're doing. I mean, Jesus! When you go to a doctor, do you pick the one who is a good guy, an average Joe? Or do you pick the best doctor you can? Let's put the smartest, most thoughtful, person in there! Not someone who hates government and thinks it's not necessary. Yeah, let's go to the doctor who hates medicine.
 
There will be a huge run-up followed by the king of all reversals. After it breaks downward, we won't see positive movement for over a week.

Deep down, nobody really thinks 700 billion will fix this. Just like in poker, it's a bet amount sized to make your opponent think it is a good value.
 
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