70% success rate Index Futures strategy

Your success rate

  • 70%+

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • 50%+

    Votes: 2 22.2%

  • Less than 50%

    Votes: 3 33.3%
  • Total voters
    9
R

rajesheck

Note : This strategy works best with Primary Index of any Exchange.

Entry Rules

1# A rally of 0.18% or more of Nifty trading points within 20 minutes.
For example if Nifty is trading at 8500 then 0.18% means 15 points.

2# Enter when there is a crossover of the rally between 10 to 60 minutes.
For example if the rally touches 8515 and crossover the same after 10 minutes and before 60 minutes

Note : The rally need not be a high/low breakout. The rally can be either with the trend or against the trend.
 
Always remember that a 70% win rate can offer far more potential problems than a 30% one.

With 70% it's going to be hard if not impossible to increase the rate to higher than 70% meaning the risk is always to the downside as it won't be that hard to drop it to 60% or even 50%. At 50% the strategy might become unprofitable.

But with 30% it would probably be hard to drop below 30% so there's little or no risk of under-performance, only the possibility of over-performance as you manage to increase the win rate to say 35% or even 40%.

Low win rates are therefore far more structurally sound going forward than a high win rate.
 
Ok for the win rate. But what are the Payoffs ? You can win 5 70% of the time. Lose 1 25% of the time. Lose 10 5% of the time... You end up with a losing strategy.
 
Apophenia said:
Ok for the win rate. But what are the Payoffs ? You can win 5 70% of the time. Lose 1 25% of the time. Lose 10 5% of the time... You end up with a losing strategy.
More...

Yeah, totally right. I have 3 trading accounts. One of them have really high win %(like 70-80%), but it's still net down. Don't get lured into high win rate! Because when I lose which is only 30% of the time, I take a big hit. I'm revising that strategy...
 
It is six of one thing and half dozen of another, high win rates work for the environment you are scalping, have to have low losing rate to Scalp and on losing days they are huge, but overall it consistently is profitable. Other side is low winning rate in which case you have to earn huge profits as they come less likely. I do both, and neither are in perfect world, you get use to what you have designed, if not working right, fix it.
 
A high win rate system is by nature a small time in market system . Anyone find that such a systems exit can serve as confirmation for entry into a system whose time in market is longer yet has a lower win percentage?
Managing position size can for each method may yield more money than simpy combining the entry of first and exit of the second into one method and optimizing size.
Maybe many systems can be looked at in this way.
 
eurusdzn said:
A high win rate system is by nature a small time in market system . Anyone find that such a systems exit can serve as confirmation for entry into a system whose time in market is longer yet has a lower win percentage?
Managing position size can for each method may yield more money than simpy combining the entry of first and exit of the second into one method and optimizing size.
Maybe many systems can be looked at in this way.
More...
greta traders makin billios replieth
 
Broadly speaking there are two approaches to trading.
1. Prediction based
2. Momentum based

I strongly believe prediction based trading is gambling. Momentum based trading is controllable and profitable.

This strategy is momentum (velocity) based....distance (0.18% or more) and time (within 20 minutes).

Intraday trading gives me more control than positional.

The exit strategy can be anything of your own style and preference. It can be either scalping or trend trading or range bound or a hybrid version.

This strategy can also be used for positional trading as an entry strategy.

You can use, play, tweak, experiment, adopt and improvise with this strategy as you wish. Except under extreme market conditions like very high volatility, I would suggest to use this strategy ANYTIME with confidence and without fear. Because there is In-Built safety measures in this strategy. :)
 
Algo-Trading VS Momentum Trading

The advantage of Algo-Trading is that it purely depends on the chart pattern and nothing else.

Disadvantage is that Algo scripts cannot be configured to minimise the hit rate of stop loss just before it hits the target. In effect the success rate dips.

On the other hand momentum trading is purely based on chart pattern (like Algos) and at the same time the Rally>>Wait>>Enter approach controls the hit rate of stop loss. Eventually the success rate is maintained at optimal level.
 
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