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70% of WTI outstanding = Speculator Positions
- Thread starter scriabinop23
- Start date
Quote from Rtrader2525:
exactly! That is not even enough to make a difference, I never saw the OP or comment on this?? haha
You guys are confusing things. 70% of *open interest*. The noncommercial and commercial designations on nymex don't show the picture. This data is markedly different from the CFTC COT noncommercial position side of things.
Quote from scriabinop23:
Saw this on tradethenews tonight:
Today 07:29pm
Oil: According to data released by the head of the Senate's Energy Committee, speculators hold close to 70% of all of the outstanding WTI oil contracts
- The data is from the CFTC.
- (reminder from 6/12) CFTC and FSA reportedly look to set limits to front-month WTI front month contracts in ICE futures Europe - unconfirmed report
We all knew noncommercial = IB spec positions...
Anyone have any news clippings w/ more details on this?
I'm sure this is wrong but I was wondering if someone could explain this to me
I can understand how a stock can be bid up so high and sustain that level for quite sometime (a bubble)
However I don't understand w/ future contracts how people the speculate? If you are a speculator and buy the month contract, don't you HAVE to close out of the position before expiration (unless you want oil delievered to you)
So therefore if there was a huge surplus of buy speculators wouldn't you think that approaching expiration the price would come down (cause they have to get out). So really from my view is the longest it could be in a bubble is the time of the contract.
Quote from Fishbird:
Speculators dont drive markets. They provide liquidity.
And the usuall small trader is shorting uptrends because it looks too high.
Unless we have a very tricky cornering here, this all doesnt make sense.
Maybe the chinese are more trendfollowers and like to spike a market.
They are cornering the market. Enron pulled this trick in California. Oil bulls never mention how since the futures markets were de-regulated a few years ago, this is when we have seen the runup in commodities. There is no shortage of oil, wheat, corn, etc. so why are prices rising? This is pure manipulation, and it's being done via sophisticated methods, between parties utilizing Nymex, Ice and Dubai exchanges. They basically trade back and forth with each other, as well as accumulate positions.
1) Speculators operate on the long and short-side of the market. Their participation offsets one another.
2) The proper conclusion is that commercial users "drive" the market. Speculators only go along for the ride. That's one of the reasons why the market doesn't fall apart upon the approach of each monthly expiration.
2) The proper conclusion is that commercial users "drive" the market. Speculators only go along for the ride. That's one of the reasons why the market doesn't fall apart upon the approach of each monthly expiration.
Quote from ProgrammerGuy:
I'm sure this is wrong but I was wondering if someone could explain this to me
I can understand how a stock can be bid up so high and sustain that level for quite sometime (a bubble)
However I don't understand w/ future contracts how people the speculate? If you are a speculator and buy the month contract, don't you HAVE to close out of the position before expiration (unless you want oil delievered to you)
So therefore if there was a huge surplus of buy speculators wouldn't you think that approaching expiration the price would come down (cause they have to get out). So really from my view is the longest it could be in a bubble is the time of the contract.
They can roll over the contract to the next month indefinetely.
Quote from nazzdack:
1) Speculators operate on the long and short-side of the market. Their participation offsets one another.
2) The proper conclusion is that commercial users "drive" the market. Speculators only go along for the ride. That's one of the reasons why the market doesn't fall apart upon the approach of each monthly expiration.
so you're saying it is NOT the speculators who are driving the market up right??