7 feb 2006 brutal yen correction, any thoughts?

Quote from 2cents:

. . . but why the coordinated squeeze in mid-afternoon after equity mkt close in tokyo on a 7th of feb, instead of rampant yen-buying over a couple of days?
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Yesterday afternoon was US treasuries auction, apparently softly bid by foreign central banks.
 
[The 30-year Treasury auction drew an impressive 65.4% indirect bid. Coupled with the encouraging 4.8% indirect bid at Wednesday's 10-year auction this suggests overseas demand for US assets remains strong. The bid/cover ratio was 2.05 - in line with the 2001 average.]
 
interesting... is issuance contracting or expanding overall in these sort of (10+ yrs) maturities? at current LT rates level, its kinda surprising to see so much interest from foreign buyers, isn't it?
 
ok this time its clear who's the chicken, who's the egg... looking at the charts around JP CGPI, then Machine Orders figures time, the correl with XAU index move points towards JP trust banks dumping gold for yen on the TOCOM... trouble is, this is done via $, which creates sizeable $ longs on the books of the FCMs/counterparties, and they in turn need to rebalance their books presto, therefore selling as many $ as required to move back to whatever $ gbp eur weightings they r comfortable with ahead of GE CPI & US TB figures later today...

or at least thats a fairly plausible (micro-)scenario to me... would also take care of what happened on Feb 7 and in mid-december...

SethArb if u watching, any comment? i am not equipped to track / chart TOCOM intra-day times & sales, can u help?
 
Quote from 2cents:

interesting... is issuance contracting or expanding overall in these sort of (10+ yrs) maturities? at current LT rates level, its kinda surprising to see so much interest from foreign buyers, isn't it?
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Don't actually understand what you mean by contracting or expanding but I expected such unusual indirect bid, i.e. very high or very low because it's been first issuance since August 2001. Such indirect bid means that an overseas demand is still ready to absorb US rising appetites.
 
its about the yield curve - which is a bit of a concern these days - and things that may have an impact on it, or things it may have an impact on. i wish i were on top of all this stuff and how it is likely to unfold but... still digesting... just food for thought ;-)
 
the links / urls i had provided and that provide an excellent basis for discussion 20 minutes ago have been removed by mod TL Trader on concern that they may consitute some form of advertising... therefore my post makes no sense... and i'll just leave it at that... pm me if u believe i may have been posting sthg of value...

cheers all!
 
Quote from 2cents:

i haven't had a chance to check out the goldismoney.com forums but will def do soonest!
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mistake, wrong URL... i tried to correct & provide the right URL but moderator deleted my post... anyway this forum is not particularly difficult to find if u know how to search... cheers
 
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