7/30 week (potential) large movers; GMCR, LNKD

i think i'm going to play for a big drop with a cheap otm option on lknd say if this deal gets shot back to 80.. things will go well for otm puts haha ..
 
well lnkd in is growing pretty freaking good..


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i hate this... i can never find out when they are exactly annoucing.. its after the bell tommorrow..? what websites do you go to that its easy to find.
 
what about this trade instead o straddle on GMCR

GMCR AUG 03 '12 + (2) 19 Call - (1) 19 Put - (1) 18 Call + (2) 18 Put Combo
bid 2.51 ask 2.80 2.65 would probably be what you can get it for ..

GMCR AUG 03 '12 18 Straddle you can get for 4.12

obviously this strategy gets killed if it only moves a dollar in either direction..
but who really thinks thats going to happen? haha in that case the straddle would still be worth a dollar.. big deal you lost three... where as you lose less on this wrangle..
 
Quote from pikerforlife:

in all seriousness, google helps. usually every week some news site or blog will do an "earnings week" preview. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/367...-reporting-earnings-next-week-july-august.htm (one hopes they have checked their facts) as well as http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=lnkd shows if they've confirmed. that's if you don't feel like finding out yourself, through the company's own sources, or simply trusting whatever your broker or yahoo finance might have up.
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opps i didn't put my trade through and it looks like it just was halted..
 
so, GMCR closes around $18, numbers comes out, it heads to $15 on the mark, then turns around and heads for $21. AMZN did a similar move last week.

my question is, what stock/option strat takes advantage of (or causes) these extreme after hours moves to either side of the measured market move implied by the options? are these moves related to the vol. crush the next day, or, are they connected to the inflated option premiums going into an earnings event? who's opening/closing/exercising positions at these peaks which see the most volume at end of the move.
 
we could have! should have, god damn, why didn't we each buy 100 or 1,000 shares at $16, or $17, or $18 after hours, knowing it would keep heading for $20+ at that point, right? a fair 10%-20%+ move for an hour or less hold. then again, most of those plays roll over, and we all know the feeling of that trade, holding from $16, $17, or $18, as the stock quickly lands back at $15. "i'm not chasing that", we'd say to ourselves, and watch someone else book 25%.

guess i'll have to see how the butterflies do. picked up the 20/21/22 for .08 on monday, and traded into the 14/15/16 for .05 monday/tuesday. a more adept trader could have gotten both of these on riskless/cheaper, i'm sure, as well as being able to get the most out of them on exit. i'll be happy to flip out of one at .25+ and call it a wash, biggest winner here, my broker. flies aren't worth it on the lower prices stocks.

will check back in for the LNKD moves tomorrow, after close.
 
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