Ok here's an example of sticking with a trade and the irrationality of some daily market moves. On Thursday, Gold rallied but the broader market dropped quickly on rational sell off in IT firms. However, all the mining stocks I own followed so I took a small hit. Noting the irrationality of the situation, I bought two more miners at the daily bottom. Friday, the miners rallied back and back to positive for the two days. I took profits on two of them that are moving the least on the up size. I kind of juggle all of them to acknowledge short term technicals, and my overall position got way too big with the new purchases. I did this despite being 80% certain they are going to appreciate in value early this week.
So Gold at $1900 is poised to either take out the ATH or set a short term top. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is looking like it's rolling over, probably late in the week if not sooner. So I'm heavily long miners still ( earnings are coming in next two weeks with Yamana already putting in a solid predictable beat ) and as a kind of hedge I shorted the Nasdaq with a 2x etf. The thing about the miners is most make money at $1500 Gold and at $1900 they print it. Which means the stocks are likely higher in October even if they correct somewhat with the broader market. Or maybe they don't correct at all, even better. It's a good gamble that hasn't attracted the masses yet like it did in 2010-2011.
I've sold almost all my broader market exposure except a few longer term plays that are relatively cheap right now. I will look to rebuy on a correction the same stuff I bought March and April.
So Gold at $1900 is poised to either take out the ATH or set a short term top. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is looking like it's rolling over, probably late in the week if not sooner. So I'm heavily long miners still ( earnings are coming in next two weeks with Yamana already putting in a solid predictable beat ) and as a kind of hedge I shorted the Nasdaq with a 2x etf. The thing about the miners is most make money at $1500 Gold and at $1900 they print it. Which means the stocks are likely higher in October even if they correct somewhat with the broader market. Or maybe they don't correct at all, even better. It's a good gamble that hasn't attracted the masses yet like it did in 2010-2011.
I've sold almost all my broader market exposure except a few longer term plays that are relatively cheap right now. I will look to rebuy on a correction the same stuff I bought March and April.