Quote from TradeMetal:
This remark states that you are denying the facts and that you are in denial. That is what the bubble is based on. People who think that the facts are wrong and they remain in denial until they lost 50% on their investment.
Quote from S2007S:
Exactly true, just as it was during our bubble years, I remember telling people and even arguing with people that real estate was going to collapse and foreclosures were going to number in the millions and most of them ignored my opinion, some even laughed. Well fast forward and man were they fucking wrong.
Shanghai is in a bubble.
Quote from BVM88:
Ponzi loans aside, what Mish said is pretty much in line with what you're saying.
Look at his heading: ".......Home sales plunge 44% in Xiamen ; Bubble Bursts in Tianjin.
He does not say 44% drop in prices, he says plunge in sales, which is what happens at a property market top. Here's the reference he posted: http://www.whatsonxiamen.com/news13408.html
With Tianjin he says the bubble has burst and gives a link to explain the deteriorating property market there: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...nute-as-china-s-real-estate-sales-tumble.html
That's what often happens after property prices peak: they begin to stagnate due to insufficient demand and increasing supply. After the initial standoff that may last some time, sellers become anxious and start selling into what by that stage is ever decreasing demand, causing prices to drop. The price drop continues as fear grips sellers and buyers hold off expecting lower prices. At the end you tend to have limited demand for only the best properties. Properties that are poorly located or generally undesirable have no demand. That's my experience anyway over two property booms/busts.
He posted many more links to other regions, which I'm not going to bother posting (there's dozens if you include links detailed in articles). If anyone's interested they can do their own research. I've seen enough anyway to know that I'd be selling if I had property in China.
Quote from S2007S:
Exactly true, just as it was during our bubble years, I remember telling people and even arguing with people that real estate was going to collapse and foreclosures were going to number in the millions and most of them ignored my opinion, some even laughed. Well fast forward and man were they fucking wrong.
Shanghai is in a bubble.
Quote from asiaprop:
but this is exactly where I strongly disagree with the blogger, that demand actually easily outstrips supply. The problem is that the bid/ask spread is incredibly wide and, most importantly, that everyone is looking for more clarity what the government is gonna implement in order to curb the real estate sector. In-transparency is what keeps everyone on hold.
Quote from richardyu301:
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Hong-Kong/Rental-Yields
Below are the figures for Hong Kong where I live.
USD10k/square meter for a decent apartment. USD20k/square meter for a luxury one. A lot of the apartments are bought by investors from mainland China.
Hong Kongâs biggest-ever property boom
Last Updated: Apr. 27, 2010
MIDLEVELS -
Apartments COST (US$) YIELD (p.a.) PRICE/SQ.M. (US$)
TO BUY MONTHLY RENT TO BUY MONTHLY RENT
55 sq. m. 660,495 2,461 4.47% 12,009 44.74
85 sq. m. 1,206,830 3,607 3.59% 14,198 42.44
120 sq. m. 1,970,640 5,332 3.25% 16,422 44.43
175 sq. m. 3,453,450 8,243 2.86% 19,734 47.10
250 sq. m. 5,917,500 12,990 2.63% 23,670 51.96
THE PEAK -
Apartments
200 sq. m. 5,745,600 11,602 2.42% 28,728 58.01
300 sq. m. 9,885,600 18,168 2.21% 32,852 60.56
HONG KONG ISLAND - Apartments
(other luxury areas)
120 sq. m. 2,222,400 5,137 2.77% 18,520 42.81
160 sq. m. 3,384,480 7,661 2.72% 21,153 47.88
200 sq. m. 4,328,800 9,496 2.63% 21,644 47.48
250 sq. m. 6,966,000 13,130 2.26% 27,864 52.52
350 sq. m. 8,625,750 18,739 2.61% 24,645 53.54
KOWLOON TONG -
Apartments
120 sq. m. 1,931,640 4,348 2.70% 16,097 36.23
200 sq. m. 3,864,400 6,716 2.09% 19,322 33.58
NEW TERRITORIES - Apartments
80 sq. m. 608,000 2,081 4.11% 7,600 26.01
120 sq. m. 1,273,800 3,782 3.56% 10,615 31.52
170 sq. m. 1,945,990 6,025 3.72% 11,447 35.44
250 sq. m. 3,617,000 8,683 2.88% 14,468 34.73
Quote from Lights:
Try 2 billion people. 1.3bb are heads accounted for. There are hundreds of millions in rural areas who have not been counted in census. ie there are 350 million americans not 300, if you count the illegals.
65 million empty homes for 2 billion people is not much.