SOLD!....on point 4 hilarious
65 million flats in China are vacant
- Thread starter richardyu301
- Start date
If they can find a woman to marry. The china 1 child policy meant a lot of female fetuses get aborted or killed post birth.
http://www.gendercide.org/case_infanticide.html
http://www.gendercide.org/case_infanticide.html
by that logic, America has been in a bubble for 200 years
yup. Average prices are TWENTY times annual salary. If it doesn't burst in the next 10 years or so then china has created a deus ex machinima
prices NEVER go down! 
The trigger is unemployment
the great depression was a pullback in the 200 year bubble?:eek:
you clearly know nothing about the market in Shanghai or greater China, I recommend you stay in your own thread, the one nobody else ever commented in.
Let's say the average US salary is about 50k USD (which is a pretty accurate 2007 or so level). Use max half of that to make your mortgage payments and you end up with 500k equity for a home. Now, anywhere aside the great plains between the East and West coast, including all other large metropolis around the globe price new 3 bed room apartments at >500k, especially in Shanghai. Right now prices for a 3br apartment in an average location in Shanghai (such as around Xujiahu) is priced around 900k USD (around 6 million RMB).
While this segment of the market in Shanghai is clearly bubbly nobody says this must be the top. The previous post by newguy (someone who seems to know what he is talking about) puts it correctly: For local Shanghainese an own apartment is what a car is to your average country side American, a must-have. For most younger people getting married without their own four walls is almost unimaginable. Since most apartment prices are completely out of reach for those often parents chip in. I am talking of course about a growing affluent middle to upper middle class. I believe the poorest segment will soon be entirely pushed out of this city because they can simply not afford to live there anymore.
So, I would be careful to call any tops in the Shanghai real estate market. Once the bubble pops I believe we will see easily corrections to the tune of 50-60% but I claim nobody knows when this will occur.
Let's say the average US salary is about 50k USD (which is a pretty accurate 2007 or so level). Use max half of that to make your mortgage payments and you end up with 500k equity for a home. Now, anywhere aside the great plains between the East and West coast, including all other large metropolis around the globe price new 3 bed room apartments at >500k, especially in Shanghai. Right now prices for a 3br apartment in an average location in Shanghai (such as around Xujiahu) is priced around 900k USD (around 6 million RMB).
While this segment of the market in Shanghai is clearly bubbly nobody says this must be the top. The previous post by newguy (someone who seems to know what he is talking about) puts it correctly: For local Shanghainese an own apartment is what a car is to your average country side American, a must-have. For most younger people getting married without their own four walls is almost unimaginable. Since most apartment prices are completely out of reach for those often parents chip in. I am talking of course about a growing affluent middle to upper middle class. I believe the poorest segment will soon be entirely pushed out of this city because they can simply not afford to live there anymore.
So, I would be careful to call any tops in the Shanghai real estate market. Once the bubble pops I believe we will see easily corrections to the tune of 50-60% but I claim nobody knows when this will occur.
someone who CLEARLY knows his stuff, congrats. Too many people who chip in here and there without knowing any facts.
I fully agree with you on all points except I believe that a point comes where the bubble bursts. The problem I see is that a select local finances are in a horrible state of affairs, something the government hides and nobody knows whether anyone is interested to ever clean it up. For now I think the government will want to promote "measured growth" which means to tax high rollers and support the masses. They will do anything it takes to maintain something similar to the status quo for a long time to come. For the same reasons American politicians will never push through with campaign financing reform Chinese top politicians will not tax the hell out of the affluent; nobody wants to cut off their own legs.
It takes a huge, concerted panic in China for the real estate to turn upside down and I simply dont see it even on the horizon yet. It will be interesting to see how demand out of Europe will drop out once Europe will hit rock bottom and how much of that will impact the Chinese market on the production side and how it feeds through the whole system. I believe it will again target the poorest and least trained rather than those who made it and are part of the "success story".
I fully agree with you on all points except I believe that a point comes where the bubble bursts. The problem I see is that a select local finances are in a horrible state of affairs, something the government hides and nobody knows whether anyone is interested to ever clean it up. For now I think the government will want to promote "measured growth" which means to tax high rollers and support the masses. They will do anything it takes to maintain something similar to the status quo for a long time to come. For the same reasons American politicians will never push through with campaign financing reform Chinese top politicians will not tax the hell out of the affluent; nobody wants to cut off their own legs.
It takes a huge, concerted panic in China for the real estate to turn upside down and I simply dont see it even on the horizon yet. It will be interesting to see how demand out of Europe will drop out once Europe will hit rock bottom and how much of that will impact the Chinese market on the production side and how it feeds through the whole system. I believe it will again target the poorest and least trained rather than those who made it and are part of the "success story".