61.8 % FR within the first 30 min bar revisited

W

wally_

Attached is the picture of something very similar to what happened also the day I wrote 'So we bounced off that magic number again!' Find this thread to see what I meant and how open-mindedly (should I use the word 'mind' here at all?) it was received. Then the 61.8 % FR within the first 30 min bar proved to be a serious resistance. In the picture presented which comes from 12-20-02 (3 min bars in the ES chart) it proves to be a formidable support.

See the picture and do your own homework if you want to use this setup for trading. This is a very simple setup and I am surprised that I have to draw a picture to get it across. I hope that the picture gets posted. I once had problems with that.

This setup occured 8 times in the ES chart in November alone, each time it was possible to get 5 ES pts or more.

The beauty of this setup is that your stop-loss is automatically defined. It is one tick below/above the closest end of the first 30 min bar. On the day presented in the picture it would be at 888.25 as the low of the first 30 min bar was at 888.5 and it was the end of it closest to the 61.8 % FR line. With an entry @890.5 you would be risking 2.25 ES pts. It's good to assume a target of at least 2 times the amount risked, that is here 2*2.25=4.5 ES pts, which in this case would easily be attained.


FR=Fibbonacci Retracement

Happy New Year!
 

Attachments

This garbage doesn't work. Are you trying to sell a system? Fib retracement... yeah right. Next you'll be telling me you make money with it. Sheesh...!

After all, if it really worked, why would you tell anyone about it?

:)
 
I rarely post but your annoying crap finally got to me!

On 11-06-02 03:55 PM you wrote in another post:

"I think I am very close to having a power system along the lines discussed here, but with some additional elements that I will elaborate on later on, some time this week.

Now, some request, if you guys don't mind: I need daily data (high, low, close for the daily sessions) for the last ES contract (September one). I am testing some very simple system that seems to be quite promising, but it's too early to say anything more about it. Need more data to backtest it."

Now besides your other 500 bullshit posts, for a guy who so often claims to have some great "systems" how can that be if you don't even have any data to test them with? Looks like you don't even have a good data/chart package to trade with!

If people like you continue with your bullshit, it will eventually drive this forum downhill.

Go away!
 
Quote from wally_:

...So we bounced off that magic number again!' Find this thread to see what I meant and how open-mindedly (should I use the word 'mind' here at all?) it was received...

This is a very simple setup and I am surprised that I have to draw a picture to get it across. I hope that the picture gets posted. I once had problems with that.

This setup occured 8 times in the ES chart in November alone, each time it was possible to get 5 ES pts or more.

The beauty of this setup is that your stop-loss is automatically defined. It is one tick below/above the closest end of the first 30 min bar. On the day presented in the picture it would be at 888.25 as the low of the first 30 min bar was at 888.5 and it was the end of it closest to the 61.8 % FR line. With an entry @890.5 you would be risking 2.25 ES pts. It's good to assume a target of at least 2 times the amount risked, that is here 2*2.25=4.5 ES pts, which in this case would easily be attained.


FR=Fibbonacci Retracement

Happy New Year!
More...

Hi Wally,

I read your post very carefully and saw a few sarcastic remarks that prompt me to read for the first time a past thread that you started on this particular issue.

I wanted to see what happen in the past that would prompt you to re-open what I quickly came to the conclusion must have ended in a heated debate based on the tone of how you started this particular thread.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ght=So+we+bounced+off+that+magic+number+again

I had to use ET's search to find it.

Note: Today was the first time I read the past thread and because of the way you started this thread...you must be still upset about something that occurred in that other thread.

My question is this...what prompt you to re-open this particular issue on your trade setup after knowing how your previous discussion thread turned into?

Another question...your first chart (synthesis-fr2.gif) had no indicators and your second chart (synthesis-fr1.gif) had many indicators...

thus, do you trade with indicators in combination with Fib numbers or not?

I don't know a whole lot about Fibs but I will say this...

if it works for you...you don't need to defend it.

And if you have a need to defend it...

you may want to re-read Nitro's suggestion from that particular thread you gave reference to in which he said...

"IMHO, there is only one REAL TIME that deserves to be called that - the chartroom.

I think both you and wally should come in the chatroom and post some FR REAL TIME trades..."

By the way...via those two intraday charts you posted...a simple Bullish Divergence via the 1min all session globex chart would have netted as much points.

I won't post any charts unless you can't see the Bullish Divergence that developed nicely (fell below the 200eMA no more than 2 points) near the 200eMA before trending upwards for a nice trend with a few wiggles here and there until the trend peaked and exhausted itself.

I saw some guys posting realtime trades via the Bullish Divergence in a few chat rooms on those particular days your charts give reference to.

However...I don't know if they were using the Bullish Divergence in combo with Fib numbers...or if they used Fib numbers at all.

What's my point? There are many roads to profits...what's simple to one trader may not be simple to another. What works for one trader may not work for another.

If traders can't understand that...

I think this thread may turn into what the prior thread did simply because of the tone of how you started this thread.

Good luck.

Happy holidays all and lets try to keep the good spirits.

Eat some left-over turkey or duck with some wine...that's what I'm about to do in about 5mins.

NihabaAshi
 
Quote from inandlong:

This garbage doesn't work. Are you trying to sell a system? Fib retracement... yeah right. Next you'll be telling me you make money with it. Sheesh...!

After all, if it really worked, why would you tell anyone about it?

:)
More...

Smells like shit to me!
 
This trading plan reminds me of an old Cheech & Chong skit:

Jabornik!

Yah?

Come here. . . .

What that?

I don't know.

Look like dogshit to me.

Yah, look like dogshit to me, too.

Pick up.

What?

Pick up!

Feel like dogshit?

Yah, feel like dogshit.

Smell.

What?

SMELL!

Smell like dogshit?

Yah, smell like dogshit.

Taste.

WHAT??

I said TASTE!

Taste like dogshit?

Yah, taste like dogshit.

Well, good thing we didn't step in it.

Yah, good thing.
 
wally, did you check to see how many times it got stopped out in Nov by any chance?

Ah don't pay any attention to them.

A good opening setup can be valuable because it shakes you awake and you're right there first thing.

Hard to know about that open, now with more and more 24 hr trading going on. I guess it's good as long as somebody is playing catchup in the morning.

I'll check it out more closely this time. Actually I have been following it. So far my rule of thumb is, the open has to be wide enough that I can read the 61.8 number on the sierra chart.
 
On the 24 hr data, unless you are going to trade premarket, I don't think it pays to use it. It masks the opening gap otherwise present from day to day, a gap which fills almost everyday. It skews indicators also for the first 15-30 minutes.

The world doesn't care what happened in the UK with the ES, if it did the gap wouldn't fill. They get up or stay up to trade our markets, not vv.
 
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