If you are attributing the run-up in oil prices directly to Iran, then how has the Iranian situation resolved itself so markedly to reflect the significant drop in prices from their peak?
60 minutes on the oil manipulation
- Thread starter stock777
- Start date
Pop goes the weasel cos the weasel go pop.
All markets become bubbles that pop.
All markets become bubbles that pop.
I never said that the entire run was DIRECTLY linked to the Israeli mission.
But if you traded ( or watched ) crude oil last Spring and how it traded during the months of April, May, and June (into the early July peak), you would have come to the conclusion that a major oil producer was about to go "off-line".
Thus, in my mind everything above $110 was the result of speculation/hedging based on Iran going "off-line" due to a military action against it.
Israel's mission obviously did not happen, and as we all know the world Economy took center stage with demand falling dramatically.
All true and if I could add the threat of terror/labor strikes in Nigeria was a concern as well.
You'll notice in both this thread and in life that those who scream manipulation are novice type traders. Markets are ALWAYS manipulated. Duh. Longs/producers have an ax to grind higher and shorts/commercial users have an ax to grind lower. Governments either want a weak currency or a strong exchange rate, insiders either want a pumped stock market to unload on or a weak market to accumulate additional shares etc.
The notion that participants are trying to jam prices to one extreme or another should be taken as a GIVEN. Since Americans believe it's a birthright to pay about 5 minutes wages for a gallon a gas any additional cost on our gross, polluting consumption is an assault on liberty. How dare an oil exec earn a salary comparable to a New York Yankee or Met......
You'll notice in both this thread and in life that those who scream manipulation are novice type traders. Markets are ALWAYS manipulated. Duh. Longs/producers have an ax to grind higher and shorts/commercial users have an ax to grind lower. Governments either want a weak currency or a strong exchange rate, insiders either want a pumped stock market to unload on or a weak market to accumulate additional shares etc.
The notion that participants are trying to jam prices to one extreme or another should be taken as a GIVEN. Since Americans believe it's a birthright to pay about 5 minutes wages for a gallon a gas any additional cost on our gross, polluting consumption is an assault on liberty. How dare an oil exec earn a salary comparable to a New York Yankee or Met......
I think your post has some merit, but who are we to decide on what price increments are attributable to what factors? And when a number of factors are at play, it is then easier to engage in some corruption and pass it off as one of those factors.
Did that happen? I don't know, but what has been going on, as reported by 60 Minutes, doesn't exactly pass the smell test. I'm still troubled by the extent of Morgan Stanley's active participation in the physical commodity. I'm also troubled that some of the key people in the game were the very same people who had worked for Enron when it had manipulated the energy markets. I'm not talking about the price action that results from mere speculation alone. I'm referring to the very real possibility of corrupt manipulation. Pabst seems to be a tad too obtuse to make the distinction. I think you're fairly smarter.
In any event, it will be interesting to see what additional facts will be uncovered and how this thing plays out in the fullness of time, Pabst's self-proclaimed omniscience nothwithstanding.
My issue is that the ICE futures in London captured at least 30% of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market, and that this contract was outside of CFTC regulation due to the Enron "loop-hole" that came out of the "Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000."
It never made any sense to me that we would allow West Texas Intermediate crude to trade "overseas" ( in London and Dubai ) without any kind of regulatory oversight or accountability.
It never made any sense to me that we would allow West Texas Intermediate crude to trade "overseas" ( in London and Dubai ) without any kind of regulatory oversight or accountability.
Do not also forget about the bankruptcy and liquidation of hedges of SemGroup. Just as Amaranth's liquidation seemed to correlate with the seasonal lows in Nat Gas, SemGroup's blowout seemed to correlate closely with the highs in CL. Perhaps indiscriminate liquidation of their portfolio was made even more difficult by the geopolitical risks being factored into crude at that time. Thunderdog, if you choose to undertake the mission, I would suggest focusing the brunt of your investigation into the manipulation of crude on the period surrounding the liquidation of SemGroup, their counterparties, and their creditors privy to information regarding their vulnerability.
I'm a bit pressed for time. Perhaps you can give 60 Minutes a call. 