Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
I thought the 60 Minutes argument was weak and inconclusive, but 60 Minutes ceased to be a serious program years, maybe decades, ago. Basically, they said prices went up and tried to establish a correlation between that and increased spec activity. Even that was flawed, as COT data show commercials far overshadowing specs. They never answered the basic question of what happened to all the oil that long-side specs were cornering. They never addressed the risk premium issue, the china Olympics issue, the fact that every other commodity also went vertical or the dollar weakness.
That said, I find it awfully coincidental that prices collapsed as soon as congress got involved.
Quote from Landis82:
Most of the people on ET don't trade for a living. They also have very little clue about the "Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000

Quote from Thunderdog:
I'm guessing you first made that observation about 8 years ago...
Quote from Il Principe:
Salient points, although the Wall Streeters got themselves classified as commercials, then used swaps to hide their true exposure. IMO, that's the main reason why all commods went SO high/so fast beyond the justifiable arguments for a bull mkt. I was a hedger in cocoa and $3K+/comtract was actually quite funny. Probably see it again in 3 months.
That's all well and groovy, except that the evidence suggests there was manipulation going on, on a meaningful scale. Remember, we're not talking about mere speculation, but manipulation. Also, currency fluctuation did not explain the level of volatility in oil prices, so I'm not quite sure why you brought it up. Apart from all that, your self-righteous commentary makes me feel warm all over.Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Soybeans went to $15
Gold went to $1000.
Copper to $4.00
BP to over $2.10
The loonie to $1.11
Minneapolis Wheat to over $20 a bushel but somehow the short lived spike in crude was the product of evil manipulative speculators. Too friggin' funny. I can find virtual 100% price correlation between almost every commodity and currency on both the run-up and now the break.
And for cunts who obsess over the "looting" of the consumption happy American middle class by a year or two of high gasoline prices I'd argue that the moral play of Suzi SUV subsidizing starving masses in Nigeria and Venezuela via her pollutants is tit for tat.
Quote from Rtrader2525:
great thread guys and very good post Pabst. I certainly am not trying to hijack the thread I just read that this Il Principe is a cocoa hedger. I'd be very interested in hearing what cash cocoa trading and hedging is like. You have your Pm's turned off sir.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
And for cunts who obsess over the "looting" of the consumption happy American middle class by a year or two of high gasoline prices I'd argue that the moral play of Suzi SUV subsidizing starving masses in Nigeria and Venezuela via her pollutants is tit for tat.