6 months TopStep 50K Net Profits

That Daily (1) and Monthly (20) are gamble.
Mostly 50/50. with mean 0.

So price are reverting monthly on average,
From weeklies.

That it takes 2 to 5 days to express a trend.
Maybe retracements happen over a week (-2%)

That above 50 days price is likelier to increase.
Mean 1%(50), 3%(100), 12%(250)
But numbers are biased.

250 days from 5 years isn’t much sample.

...

What do you see ?
I shouldn't day trade.
 
@Sekiyo,

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

You have excellent math, coding skills and a good logical mind. You will go far.

Me? Over the hill, poor math and coding skills, not very logical. I am lucky I picked the right time period to trade but the way this market is going my luck may run out this year. :(
 
@Sekiyo,

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

You have excellent math, coding skills and a good logical mind. You will go far.

Me? Over the hill, poor math and coding skills, not very logical. I am lucky I picked the right time period to trade but the way this market is going my luck may run out this year. :(

Thank you @ironchef

I only have little knowledge of these.
Not sure it currently gives me an edge but I am trying to improve.

Not every great traders have a quantitative approach,
And not every great quants are good at trading !

So don't worry, you can go far too !

Ultimately the hardest part is to keep the money,
This is where you need to prove yourself.
At worst, don't trade these markets.

Wait for better conditions that suits you !
 
Tradovate: 105% of CPU resources, 15% of memory resources.
upload_2020-3-10_12-0-55.png


Just because I volume profile the 5 last days.
 
Some quotes from “The Great mental models”

“Removing blind spots means we see, interact with, and move closer to understanding reality.”

“I don’t want to be a great problem solver. I want to avoid problems—prevent them from happening and doing it right from the beginning.”

“When understanding is separated from reality, we lose our powers. Understanding must constantly be tested against reality and updated accordingly. This isn’t a box we can tick, a task with a definite beginning and end, but a continuous process.”

“What you need is to understand the principles, so that when the details change you are still able to identify what is really going on.”

“Most geniuses—especially those who lead others—prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.”

“Understanding only becomes useful when we adjust our behavior and actions accordingly.”

“The world is smarter than we are and it will teach us all we need to know if we’re open to its feedback—if we keep our feet on the ground.”

“When we use flawed models we are more likely to misunderstand the situation, the variables that matter, and the cause and effect relationships between them.”

“Sometimes making good decisions boils down to avoiding bad ones.”
 
They gave me the Pro account
Made two trade for the moment.
Got a short in place for later, let's see.

upload_2020-3-10_17-5-53.png


Bought one @ 2740
+1 tick
Bought another one @ 2745
+10 Pts
 
Missed the short by 10 Pts
Guess I am going to stop here for today

upload_2020-3-10_17-39-25.png


upload_2020-3-10_17-39-55.png


LMAO thanks @jtlexington
Hope you're a better speculator than me !

Not good to not be able to hold onto a good trade. Been shaken out of my trades but volatility is kind of crazy.
 
Missed the short by 10 Pts
Guess I am going to stop here for today

View attachment 221635

View attachment 221637

LMAO thanks @jtlexington
Hope you're a better speculator than me !

Not good to not be able to hold onto a good trade. Been shaken out of my trades but volatility is kind of crazy.

Took another 5Pts scalp
upload_2020-3-10_18-23-45.png


Got another limit to sell @ 2815

Seriously ... The only good trade is the +1 tick.
The two other ones miss so much opportunity.
Playing great defense but not the right way.

upload_2020-3-10_18-47-25.png


By being too protective I am shooting myself in the foot.
This is a newbie error ... Cut profit short and let losers run.

Bought 745 sold 800.
Took 10 Pts over 55 pts
ONE FIFTH

It's uncertainty.
Part of the game ^^

Better safe than sorry.
Anyway ...
 
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