6 months TopStep 50K Net Profits

[FTDK]

Good Overnight Session
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Always asks yourself if a monkey, at random, would have done better.

Good job so far.

No disrespect, however it seems you get very lucky with that short this night that got stuck in the limit down. Most of the limit downs don't trade higher until they open lower, that one could have cost you everything. Looking back in this thread it seems like you often take 10-20-30 points draw down for a small target and get close to blowing out, why do you take so much risk?

 

[Sekiyo]

Good job so far.

No disrespect, however it seems you get very lucky with that short this night that got stuck in the limit down. Most of the limit downs don't trade higher until they open lower, that one could have cost you everything. Looking back in this thread it seems like you often take 10-20-30 points draw down for a small target and get close to blowing out, why do you take so much risk?

This morning was some gamble I agree.
But I kinda new I wouldn’t get stuck because 1. The price had bounced several times before I took the trades 2. There was volume at the limit down asks (23K asks lifted at the limit) which showed interest to unlock the price 3. A great amount of bids were trying to support the price just above the limit.

It’s true and I am aware of this and trying to correct. Lately I kept losses smaller. It’s getting better. The problem is stupidity, absurdity. I am trying to not lose. So I used to not take small losses. Then it gets bigger, I try to get a +1 tick. In the end I risk 100pts for a +1tick. Guess I begin to heal from this kind of thinking.

The remedy is to take small losses. At worst you can try to sell higher or buy lower after taking the loss. Being out also help reshape clearly the situation. Breath. Take small losses and take great gain. No need to cut short your profit. Don’t try to secure them. Secure the downside.

Also I’ll try to not risk more than 4risks for 1Reward. So if I am trying to get +1 ticks I have to not risk more than 4 ticks. If my initial TP was 10Pts I don’t have to risk more than 40Pts.

This is the worst case.

Payoff and confidence are linked.
A high probability setup will be 4risk 1Reward
A low probability setup will be 4Rewards 1Risk
Grossly speaking.

Trying to learn day in day out.
Thank for your feedback

 

[FTDK]

But I kinda new I wouldn’t get stuck because 1. The price had bounced several times before I took the trades 2. There was volume at the limit down asks (23K asks lifted at the limit) which showed interest to unlock the price 3. A great amount of bids were trying to support the price just above the limit.

With all respect but there was no way of knowing you wouldn't get stuck. You could not have known beforehand if it would trade back up from the limit down or not and the past weeks have shown it rarely happens.

If you want to survive on the long run i would suggest next time place your stop before you reach the limit down. If this would have happened with any other limit down earlier this month you would have blown out and even worse, if it would ever happen with your own account you wouldn't just blow your entire account but probably end up in debt with your broker as well.

Don't get me wrong, your results are amazing, but it seems like they are quite lucky as well. You said it yourself now, sometimes you risk way to much for a small profit, what would you do if price didn't reverse after you are 30 points down? There aren't much options left at that point ...

 

[Sekiyo]

Payoff and confidence are linked.
A high probability setup will be 4risk 1Reward
A low probability setup will be 4Rewards 1Risk
Grossly speaking.

 

[Sekiyo]

With all respect but there was no way of knowing you wouldn't get stuck. You could not have known beforehand if it would trade back up from the limit down or not and the past weeks have shown it rarely happens.

If you want to survive on the long run i would suggest next time place your stop before you reach the limit down. If this would have happened with any other limit down earlier this month you would have blown out and even worse, if it would ever happen with your own account you wouldn't just blow your entire account but probably end up in debt with your broker as well.

Don't get me wrong, your results are amazing, but it seems like they are quite lucky as well. You said it yourself now, sometimes you risk way to much for a small profit, what would you do if price didn't reverse after you are 30 points down? There aren't much options left at that point ...

As I said. It did already bounce up several times before I bought the limit down. At worst I had in mind to get out at the limit down asks. Just place an ask and maybe someone will hit your ask. 23K have been lifted down there. More than usual. There was interest.

I already took a loss this way on a previous limit down. Took a long loss at the limit down ask and even entered a short. Then the market gapped down and I made money. But I agree it’s not recommended.

 

[Sekiyo]

Luck is part of the game.
I don’t care being lucky on the upside.
Actually, I even try to ride it on the upside.
Part of the skill set is to cap luck on the downside.

I am proud about being a lucky winner.
I just don’t want to be a lucky loser.

 

[Sekiyo]

@FTDK

This is how a limit down looks like

Bids are under the limit 2601.
You can’t bid under but you can ask 2601.
As you can see there was currently 4405 asks.
You can’t market sell I believe. Never tried at least.

What you can is either market buy, hit the ask,
Or limit sell and add yourself into the queue.

So you can buy and sell at this level.

No volume profile on the picture,
But there was about 5K transaction at 2601.

Guys are hitting the ask,
Often there are less askers than asks.
So the price just lie there but you can be filled.
Market Buyers hit the bid and bidders renew the liquidity.

Especially if you are early in the morning,
There is Asian session, the EU before US unlock.

If you put an early ask at the limit down,
You’re more likely than not to be filled.

The market does not stop.
People still negotiate at this level.

But you can get stuck if no one hit your nth ask.
In this case you risk a gap down.
You can risk big indeed.

 

[Sekiyo]

@FTDK

Vertical blue line is my first order.
As you can see price had already bounced up.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Luck is part of the game.
I don’t care being lucky on the upside.
Actually, I even try to ride it on the upside.
Part of the skill set is to cap luck on the downside.

I am proud about being a lucky winner.
I just don’t want to be a lucky loser.

If you're lucky, you can also be unlucky.

I also thought that long trade seemed a bit reckless. One bad trade can eradicate a lot of good ones.

Anyway, nice catch today and keep it up.

 

[Sekiyo]

If you're lucky, you can also be unlucky.

I also thought that long trade seemed a bit reckless. One bad trade can eradicate a lot of good ones.

Anyway, nice catch today and keep it up.

Of course, luck has two sides.
Luck is by definition neutral, it’s just variance.

We say “Good Luck” and “Bad Luck”.
I want to profit from good luck, being positively lucky.
But I also want to mitigate bad luck, not being negatively lucky.

LMAO Reckless is the term.
Seriously I thought I was gaming the rules.
But the downside is huge so ... Reckless that’s it.

Thanks @Laissez Faire
Best day today of the journal.
And I’ve made more than my worst day.