6 months TopStep 50K Net Profits
- Thread starter Sekiyo
- Start date
An Edge is not so much about probabilities
It's more about the payoff function.
This is what it looks like to buy / sell in the middle of nowhere
And this is what it looks like to buy low
or sell high
Price have the exact same probability of going up or down.
But when you buy low then the upside should be greater than the downside.
Your expectancy is therefore something like 3/5x0.5-2/5x0.5 > 0
Also, at first, the uncertainty is at its maximum (1/N)
And the closer we get from expiration, the closer it get to 100%.
If you look at the beginning of each of this individual path in each scenario,
It's tough to tell what's his respective probability of going either up or down.
There are also under / over performing paths around our expectation.
What's counter intuitive is under maximum uncertainty 1/N,
it means we should bet with a 1 risk 1 reward ratio (50/50).
And let the more Upside / Downside do its job.
In the end we will win probability wise.
1*3/5-1*2/5 > 0
Not sure ...
It's more about the payoff function.
This is what it looks like to buy / sell in the middle of nowhere
And this is what it looks like to buy low
or sell high
Price have the exact same probability of going up or down.
But when you buy low then the upside should be greater than the downside.
Your expectancy is therefore something like 3/5x0.5-2/5x0.5 > 0
Also, at first, the uncertainty is at its maximum (1/N)
And the closer we get from expiration, the closer it get to 100%.
If you look at the beginning of each of this individual path in each scenario,
It's tough to tell what's his respective probability of going either up or down.
There are also under / over performing paths around our expectation.
What's counter intuitive is under maximum uncertainty 1/N,
it means we should bet with a 1 risk 1 reward ratio (50/50).
And let the more Upside / Downside do its job.
In the end we will win probability wise.
1*3/5-1*2/5 > 0
Not sure ...
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Upside and Downside are nearest target.
Daily ones. I use them more for ratios than targets.
It gives me an idea of the potential bullish, bearishness.
It's like a map. And entry (last close) is traveling through it.
Then weighted with probability it tells me what I should be doing.
Either going short. Doing nothing or buying. Might not respect targets then.
I am a seller @ 72.5
Target 3030
#1 EDIT:
3070... 3037
Seller @ 3058 (POC)
#2 EDIT:
3052 ... 3031
Seller @ 3056-8
#3 EDIT:
Filled @ 3057
Target 3021
SL 93
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3070 ... ?
Almost a new local high (3073)
Hope we make a new local low < 3031
I am dead if price doesn't go below 3050.
Currently 3057
Lol lots of bids around 3050
We might go to 3090
No need to go find buyer lower
if they come by themselves at current price.
Some Muther focker aygain
Currently local low at 3043
3125 in sight ?
#1 EDIT
Tiny new local low at 3041
3030-3080 is short term range.
#2 EDIT
Protective Stop @ 55. Current price 39
#3 EDIT
Price reached 53 from 39
Action not bearish ...
#4 EDIT
Out @ 50
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Great stuff, well deserved. If you perform in the funded account like you do in the sim (no reason you wouldn't), you'll definitely reap the rewards of trading. Been great following along on your journey, hope to see your posts after funding also.
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Guess I’ll keep posting until I withdraw 10K net.
That’s my goal then open an AMP account with flat fees.
Then instead of giving TST 20%,
I’ll take them for me.
Might set either 5K or 10K margin per contract.
It doesn’t pay off to be greedy, long term.
So maybe 1 contract per 10K.
Especially with this kind of daily volatility,
10Pts is 500$ or 5% of 10K.
Better be cautious.
Thanks for believing I deserve success ^^
But I still have to learn a lot !
Managing anxiety is one thing.
Not blowing up is a daily challenge.
Min(Risk), Max(Profitability) is still enigmatic.
The craft of trading itself is yet another one ^^
There is no reset once funded xD
But I feel like I deserve to trade some real $$$
Now I’ll have to preserve it and grow it as I could.
Money is just a byproduct.
Gotta focus on the system and its implementation.
The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge
- Stephen Hawking ?
I’d rather be dumb and antifragile than extremely smart and fragile, any time.
- Nn Taleb
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Out of curiosity, which platform would you most likely use on there? I haven't put much thought/effort into thinking past TST (moving on to step 2 of the combine now), but l would move off TST as well once I've built up a bit of profit and go out on my own. That said, I'm just starting to think about it and what it entails in terms of setting up an account somewhere (like AMP), which platform to use, other 3rd party things. If anything gives me something to research and think about.
All of that preamble, I'd be curious what you are thinking of doing for a platform and anything else you might use?