Not lately. If you keep track of the New Highs and New Lows for the major markets: http://finance.yahoo.com/m0 You can get an idea for the odds. It's been pretty dry on the new lows list for quite some time. That wasn't the case a year or so ago though.
If you are going to play the new highs or new lows, my advice is keep an eye on the statistics from the exchanges. The best odds are to play the new lows short during bear markets and the new highs long during bull markets.
