50k to 500K in 10 (ten) trades

now longterm system in green and high for the year and close to all time high - time for review.

Expected that markets will be in downtrend in symphaty with after '87 scenario at least till new year. So far, massive job losses have not eventuated in Melbourne & Sydney which are recepients of government subsidies paid by mining. However, there are job losses, just done in more quiet way. Estimate we are in recession, but numbers massaged. Hot suburbs sale activity dropped off sharply and unemploymnet in pricier suburbs creeping up.

QLD and WA were allowed to delverage, probably as they are economically strongest states. NSW and VIC still not. Also minimizes the shock for the country.

However, this is not important on global scale. Most of the world is doing well.

For now, I remain long.
 
Feel good rally to encourage consumers. Protests probably helped. 1 hedge fund guy was sent to prison already so now banksters have to be nicer for a while.

Started cothinking about scaling out & -> short. Patience is virtue. Hope to handle pressure better this time as I scaled back in not the best way.
Will employ options to enhance yield. Feel my winnings from winning trade should be larger.

Consider selling calls (for the stocks i own), instead of buying puts. Maybe both.
 
My portfolio is now 100% AUD based. Winnings from the rally (i am positioned for) will flow to currencies with diversified economy. EUR and USD will be my choices to keep it simple.

First lot ( 3% of account) will flow to USD.

However when getting clear sell or buy signal will position larger part of portfolio aggresively in short period of time.
 
i dont trust charts. especially in century of machines and phds without a clue behind them. i dont do breakout trading anymore. And hate margin.

However, after a bottle or two of good wine, have a look and charts make sense. Comparision of asx in '87 vs '08, continuation. All markets similar anyway. I think we have a bit to go on upside. I am pretty much long.

My take is this is feel good rally so cristmas season willbe good as people feel wealthier and safer with markets up. How otherwise propping up economy ?!?!? Cant see any other way left.

wine here got really cheap. Now i can get sub $10 quality wine I used to pay 20-30. Wineries not on a list of subsidy, obviously. Pitty. This is one industry that would be competitive no matter what aud level due to natural advantages.
 

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swept first bit of profit in usd.

next one if it arrives, probably usd as well.

there seem to be awful lot of shorts or money sitting in cash, possibly exiting after break down. See hedge fund statistics for october. They have not moved up in october.

Chinese going up, japs some positive vibes as well. americans in + for the year.

good potential for extra lot or two of profits.

I dont like options. You have to predict direction and when it will happen. One way to increase effect of valid directional call is to buy higher beta stocks. I will only short via currencies, this is buy USD or similar. No real short position in this money printing, f*you short squeeze era.
 
bit of technical analysis....

there are 2 occasions of double bottoms before current one in SP.

one before 2008 and one during crash.

bit of geomerty and current one resembles more one in upswing. It is moving up faster. Upswing from low point around 50%. This nicely fits with projections to take out new highs in this swing. That would be hillarious !!!

Second upswing was the same percentage but took 2 months. Now we are month 1. Hesitation 2 weeks or so to push higher would be indication reversal likely. However, I have now 'free' 2 weeks. If pushes up will laugh, if not will consider swapping the sides. Going down will redeploy resources and possibly increase gearing > 1
 
aud = proxy for gloabal inflation.

can we get more inflation ? Looks like there is no other option, except if one likes riots, anarchy, etc which is not consesus. However, world is unpredictable and less desired option may materialize anyway.

AUD was in '80 at 1.4 usd at the height of resources boom. Inflation then was linked to wietnam war. Then lost 2/3 to low 0.47 or so.

Can it go to 1.4 again. Technically, had in '08 drop from 0.98 to 0.6. Projecting same size move we arrive to around 1.4.

If so, there is lots of infllation ahead.

bhp - diversified resource firm, so far reversed at 50% of increase from '09 recocery. It reached previous high, meaning there is conviction. Low 35, looking for 65.

EUR I think is in a bad shape. Lybia and Iraq were important engines of EU prosperity. Now, this is gone. Public coffee jobs will shrink. EU has no army to negotiate. Frreebie from wv2 has expired. back to misery.

My plan to hold & accumulate resources and sweep profits in USD until view changes.

Gold stocks. Waiting for a crash.

thats my view if anyone reads it.
 
time for upside.

regrettably, was too busy with my life to catch bottom - audusd 50% retracement except with some insignificant amount.

i am expecting to propell at least to 1.07 withour\t retesting low at around 1.0050 -> suggesting markets will be up around similar percentage.
 
Quote from macroman:

time for upside.

regrettably, was too busy with my life to catch bottom - audusd 50% retracement except with some insignificant amount.

i am expecting to propell at least to 1.07 withour\t retesting low at around 1.0050 -> suggesting markets will be up around similar percentage.
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expecting also some serious weakness in eur against aud. break below 1.29 will confirm. Target 1.0000. Probably start loading on strong down day with a stop.
 
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