50k to 500K in 10 (ten) trades

with harsher economic conditions, queue for government support will/has lenghten considerably.

existing recepients will get less as new, more urgent issues have to be addressed.

china land fell 9% in august. So less eager chinese internet shoppers.

not sure how to position to benefit from this yet but buying is not attractive option.
 
now 70 % in.

Secured 12% lead against my benchmark this year. I screwed around 5% of lead, technical errors.

It is soooo much easier having big positions if one plays without margin !

Thats is sure one receipe how to break size bareer.
 
he,he,he I am a bit slow. but optimistic at the right time. See eurchf.

This intervention should be good for 20% up for global markets or so.... Possibly 30. At least I hope so.

Once we kick these negative thinking people out, then back to dark ages.
 
chf move pierced hearts of many, especially us & uk based participants, based on media bias prior.

Effectively this is bailing out banks that depend on mortgages in CHF given to new enthusiastic capitalists. Although their ccy loss is 28% assuming they got in around 1.65, they are lucky as this could have turned out much worse for them.

One of deflation generators was shut out yesterday. Easy arbitrage is to sell chf and buy eur, put in the bank and receive some interest. Free money for everyone. Or use it for speculation.

But bank does not guarantee 0 int rates, only exchange rate.

Eu took over from US by injecting stimuluses.

I still think this will be good for 20 or so % for markets, possibly double that as market caught short in a big way.
 
eurchf - vw2 (volkswagen) ?

bet with a small stop - buy.

one option is eurchf comes to 1.2000 and stays there until swiss give up and here you go back to lows.

other option - shorts that are now trapped start worrying and cover. After all chf is now as worthless as eur :-) This causes massive move up and bails out eu borrowers that took swiss loans. Not exactly what uncle Obama had in mind when giving away stimuluses. Need to get these banksters, take their pants off and punish them for not doing what they promised when getting cash

:D :D
 
positive move for me in eurchf.

Do not forget !!!

once eurchf pierces high of this reaction, it is a buy season for short term trading. Market markers and manipulators are out, every setup will work on upside. Noone will dare or has no interest to push down the pair.
Targets should be increased to 6:1. Winnings compound aggresively.

Stop if/when pair reaches 1.65.
 
9228 views for 56 messages. Looks like kind of record here on et.
making money for owners of this website.

And of these around 3 not from me.

Well ladies and gents f* you.

I get nothing out of it. I can post my messages to my wife and get properly rewarded when correct.

I know you think i am hooked. But i can/will setup my webpage, you know how to google for my name, if I see I really need attention while moving my balances up.

On brighter note, australian wines are f*kin good. You have to look for 15+$. Honest. Better than french :D :D
 
85% long. Still have some bullets left. I think market should not have more than 15% to go down. I am relaxed swing trading gearing free.

Short is now extremly crowded trade. SP500 option bets Near all large ones are for falls and the biggest to 800. Now 1131.

There is no meaningfull bet to upside.

My estimate is that premium sellers are professionals and surprise would be on upside.

I am all for it.
 

Attachments

Japan scenario in stocks. Possible ?

1. Nikkei in USD is not down.
2. Number of people decreasing in Japan due to their policy not to use immigration for prosperity.
3. Not prepared to print JPY.
4. they think longterm.


Dip below '08 low possible however, would not last that long because

1. Printing will continue due to political structure. Cant see at this point to suddenly west switches to beeing moral etc.
2. Immigration is continued policy. Indians and muslims do not need it and are/will be net exporters of humans.
3. Prepared to start a war to increase asset base.

What could change this ?

1. US backs off and closes borders and creates something like middleages in eu. However there are others ready to take US place like russians or chinese.
2. War in asia not to be discounted.
3. Escalation of riots in organised movement.

Based on this, the position providing most defence in bad times and gains in good times is overweight resources. Covers well most scenarios.
 
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