50k to 500K in 10 (ten) trades

[macroman]

find it funny when people from usually health organization on street asking for money, like you are rich help x and y.....

Or even begger. He has no debt.

The asking line translated: hey you , give me some money, you are rich, you have access to credit cards & line of credit.

And skip the bit : add up all your assets & liabilities as you may find out net worth is less than a begger one.

beggars are hipocrites !

 

[peilthetraveler]

Quote from macroman:

find it funny when people from usually health organization on street asking for money, like you are rich help x and y.....

Or even begger. He has no debt.

The asking line translated: hey you , give me some money, you are rich, you have access to credit cards & line of credit.

And skip the bit : add up all your assets & liabilities as you may find out net worth is less than a begger one.

beggars are hipocrites !

Back in the 90s when Donald Trump was having money problems and looking to go bankrupt (I believe he owed 20 billion dollars or so to banks) He was walking with his young daughter and they saw a homeless man begging for change. Donald pointed him out to his daughter and said "See that man? He's worth more money than me"

She was young and didnt understand until years later though what he meant.

 

[macroman]

so, presume he did not give money to begger

thought of another possible scenario to add to my fundamental watch list.

Japanese style downturn in countries with ccy correlated to gold. Obvious candidates AUD CHF.

Japanese can't go out of crisis because of strong YEN.
Au will not be able to deflate AUD because of correlation with gold.

Japanese did not print looks like although strong yen. Same forces will prohibit this 'way out' in AU.

One can see that au market underperforming after '08. So seeds already here.

There is very little free cash available.

I think this scenario will become reality if market hits '08 low.

Parallel with Japan, AUD currency will be place to be for years.

it does not look that credible from distance but good enough to keep in mind. May get extra pieces to add to this puzzle and suddenly may become obvious.

 

[macroman]

Buy IBM, sell SENSEX. Outsourcing play. Have not done spread before so small position.

assimetrical risk profile.

 

[macroman]

Quote from macroman:

my system spit sell signal for stock markets.

After first sell signal i got 2 weeks or so ago and act mildly also due to my large cash position which is in itself short, as i measure success of the system against index and not in absolute terms, this is really second part of trade where I would double, according to my plan. It will be taken as directional short in indexes.

I will be selling any new highs next week or take sell signals. Will throw in towel around 8% higher.

Plan is to get new lows and then lighten a bit or tighten stop or mix and see how far can this thing go.

Short will be on weak indexes, possibly ASX. Will not bother with individual stocks or sectors.

Couple of factors there: economic trend - realization sets in that recession is knocking on the door, timeline same as in '90 recession.
Possibly AUD will not soften the blow as usual due to external reasons.
AUD market performing poorly compared to others.
China news from chinese sites not good from several fronts.

good call for last week but managed to get in with 20% of position on average. Entering small bits sucks If i was wrong would take full loss.

DAX market did not even go up when others were up. Missed my sell for 40 pts. And then fell the most. I check markets 2x a day so good timing not possible.

I still think lower prices are ahead.

What worries me the most is that there is no good way to employ cash left globally.

 

[macroman]

last post. I have finished what i wanted to achieve. Did not make 1000% return but only 60%. And not 10 trades but only 6.

However I have convinced myself my paper % are replicable as I was able to make winning calls 90% of the time and actually commit real money. So no 'positive bias' in memory.

Not all calls executed and not all calls entered by the rules but have confirmed my approach and hopefully improve execution stage.

Now I trust my system fully and expect to extract profits. Have brakes in place if/when system stops beeing hot, set from my prevous go's at market and restart when hitting goals again.

My greed level is high enough.

Thanks everyone for participation.

Now i am out for good. Celebrating with good bottle of red.

 

[macroman]

Quote from macroman:

Buy IBM, sell SENSEX. Outsourcing play. Have not done spread before so small position.

assimetrical risk profile.

not a bad call. Did not know this thing can move soo quick. Next time will bet more.

Lost some nerves and jumped long with 30% of available cash partially 'covering' my position. Now i can think clearly again because in pretty position. If market comes back will book 8% return for the year which is my target for longterm system and if it goes down will have pleasure buying at bargain prices and increasing lead against my benchmark.

Will sleep thru BB show tonight. However, considering SENSEX tanking, and DAX not much better would not be too optimistic. Breath of global depression can be felt.

 

[macroman]

no stimulus markets up. heh.

bb mentioned jobs and sensex down. presume outsourcers will feel this one. Although ibm is up hovewer accenture less as ibm still has some other diversification. Both underperformed nasdaq.

Thinking of next pair buy nasdaq sell acccenture but don't like shorting stocks or buying on margin. Matter of time before stepping on a mine with this shady money printing.

Maybe better option buy nasdaq sell sensex but this spread extended a bit right now.

 

[macroman]

DAX sharp fall, money flowing from EU banks. EU markets undeperforming. Apparently negative interest rates in US due to large cash inflow.

idea1
shooting in north eu kick started new trend of ethnic cleansing in eu. Property would be hit and banks but there would be lots of 'leben raum' freed. north eu loses nothing as they do not have property bubble. This scenario not the first time so tradition is there too.

idea2
revenge for lybia brewing. eu will take the blame & hit.

idea3
official stories


i am hedged for upswing but downtrend is the game. Taking only sell signals with now 3 systems + new spread experimental that worked nicely in ibm/sensex pair.

 

[macroman]

market proven strong !

looking to go all in on buy side. Beeing too pessimistic does not pay. Plan to cement around 12% lead against my benchmark this year by moving in/out of cash.

My ex fund manager never was that good ! Bunch of losers.

It does bother me that bonds predict recession. So I have alternative scenario also, all in cash. Currently 40% in.

Observing price action will decide which way I move. But essentially market down will buy and reverse.