50k account profits POLL

[trefoil]

Quote from HowardCohodas:

If you want to share your trades with me either privately or publicly, I'd be glad to comment on them with respect to my methods.

My methods do not require constant management. Five minutes a day after trading closes is about it. (Full disclosure; I spend a little extra time each day as I use my journal as training material for the course I teach)

If the market is trending, I may roll the profitable side to collect some additional credit. This may take thirty minutes on that day. For the October expirations, I have rolled the put spread twice so I'm working on my third credit on that side of the iron condor for that one month.

Thanks for the offer, but I have my own ideas, my own methods, and my own models. I have confidence in them, but I also know the market doesn't care what you have.
You could do this for as long as you like. I know exactly what you're doing, because I do it elsewhere, where I have a directional bias and I'm intending to make serious money.
If you're doing an IC, you're not supposed to have a directional bias, and taking one only increases the risk.
IC's are already a crazily risky strategy, and increasing the risk is just not good.
You have, as I recall, a three month record, just like me, doing this strategy. The difference between you and I is I know the risk, you apparently have no idea.
I can guarantee that I'll make less in most years, once I've got this thing down, but I'll be around a lot longer. It's the old story of the tortoise and the hare.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from trefoil:

I can guarantee that I'll make less in most years, once I've got this thing down, but I'll be around a lot longer. It's the old story of the tortoise and the hare.

We'll see.

There is a Taoist story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit.

"Such bad luck," they said sympathetically.

"We'll see," the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses.

"How wonderful," the neighbors exclaimed.

"We'll see," replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune.

"We'll see," answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son's leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out.

"We'll see" said the farmer.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from HowardCohodas:

We'll see.

You do realize in september 2008 there were a huge influx of newbies ( i was one) who thought they had found the golden egg by hsorting the bear market.

Subequently most of them got crushes when realized their strategies were based on luck and bad money management

You will realize yours was too.

I don't see alot of newbies posting anymore, they lost all their money and moved on...

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

You do realize in september 2008 there were a huge influx of newbies ( i was one) who thought they had found the golden egg by hsorting the bear market.

Subequently most of them got crushes when realized their strategies were based on luck and bad money management

You will realize yours was too.

I don't see alot of newbies posting anymore, they lost all their money and moved on...

You've only been here a year. (at least this nick)

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Thanks for the offer, but I have my own ideas, my own methods, and my own models. I have confidence in them, but I also know the market doesn't care what you have.

You could do this for as long as you like. I know exactly what you're doing, because I do it elsewhere, where I have a directional bias and I'm intending to make serious money.

If you're doing an IC, you're not supposed to have a directional bias, and taking one only increases the risk.

IC's are already a crazily risky strategy, and increasing the risk is just not good.

You have, as I recall, a three month record, just like me, doing this strategy. The difference between you and I is I know the risk, you apparently have no idea.

I can guarantee that I'll make less in most years, once I've got this thing down, but I'll be around a lot longer. It's the old story of the tortoise and the hare.

You do realize in september 2008 there were a huge influx of newbies ( i was one) who thought they had found the golden egg by hsorting the bear market.

Subequently most of them got crushes when realized their strategies were based on luck and bad money management

You will realize yours was too.

I don't see alot of newbies posting anymore, they lost all their money and moved on...

You state so many things with certainty about me that you cannot possibly know. And you seem to lack the curiosity to gain any insight into how I trade from me.

Just for the record.

• You cannot possibly know exactly what I'm doing. I've stated the general principles but not the details. You are welcome to pay for and attend my class if you wish. I'll give you a special price.
• I've been trading the credit spread strategy for only three months with real money and five months paper trading. I don't recall stating on this forum my trading experience beyond credit spreads.
• I believe I understand the risk. So does my son with whom I reviewed it. He is an economist, undergraduate at Cornell, Masters at VPI and worked as an economist for the Commonwealth of Virginia and the City of Richmond. So far he has more credibility than you do. Not because he is my son, but because of his education and work experience.
• You cannot possibly know my money management strategy as I have not stated it here.

We'll see

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

I don't know if your system has enough the real samples to have a statistical significance.

psychology is another important leg of trading besides money and the mechanics (the trust in one's system, if one doesn't have good system, there'll be time he is not able to pull the trigger).

Quote from HowardCohodas:

Paper trading 5 months. Money trading 3 months.

My own rules based on some math developed jointly with my son. I am a retired software engineer but majored in mathematics in college. My son is an economist. I'm not yet sure if this is of significant advantage.

We both still have much to learn about these matters.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from HeSaidSheSaid:

I don't know if your system has enough the real samples to have a statistical significance.

I would agree. Two years of backtesting, five months of paper trading and three months of real trading and still review the math. Continuous learning and continuous improvement is the plan.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from ProfLogic:

You've only been here a year. (at least this nick)

No, I've been here multiple years and changed alias to failed_trad3r when I failed in the bull run trading. Guess what, like 90% of the shorters in 2008 failed also in 2009. It's a fact.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from HowardCohodas:

You state so many things with certainty about me that you cannot possibly know. And you seem to lack the curiosity to gain any insight into how I trade from me.

Just for the record.

• You cannot possibly know exactly what I'm doing. I've stated the general principles but not the details. You are welcome to pay for and attend my class if you wish. I'll give you a special price.
• I've been trading the credit spread strategy for only three months with real money and five months paper trading. I don't recall stating on this forum my trading experience beyond credit spreads.
• I believe I understand the risk. So does my son with whom I reviewed it. He is an economist, undergraduate at Cornell, Masters at VPI and worked as an economist for the Commonwealth of Virginia and the City of Richmond. So far he has more credibility than you do. Not because he is my son, but because of his education and work experience.
• You cannot possibly know my money management strategy as I have not stated it here.

We'll see

8% a month is a statistical anomaly if this is a true edge. what will happen is either you're lucky and a disaster is waiting to happen or the edge will diminish and completely disappear.

8% a month means you're overleveraged in normal trading, even in daytrading.

so believe me when I say that you should be very very careful

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

8% a month is a statistical anomaly if this is a true edge. what will happen is either you're lucky and a disaster is waiting to happen or the edge will diminish and completely disappear.

8% a month means you're overleveraged in normal trading, even in daytrading.

so believe me when I say that you should be very very careful

I admire your tenacity. Whenever I refute one of you statements, rather than admit you were wrong, you come back with another statement without any supporting references or you recycle one or your old ones.

"8% is a statistical anomaly." Shall I take that as truth or trust my mathematics and the analysis of a respected economist? Why?

"8% a month means you're over leveraged" Make your case. What's your evidence for such a statement?

"you should be very careful" Ah, I agree with that whole heartedly.

Quote from Will Rogers:

It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so.