If you missed the worst days you made 10 million (That would be days you were out of the market)
Buy and Hold made 5 Million
50% smaller returns missing the top 10 best days in the market from 1999-2019
- Thread starter Ninja Mobile Trader VPS
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Buy and Hold made 5 Million
How quickly people forget.
The Nasdaq took 15 years to recover the 2000 drop.
It only broke out to new highs a few years ago!
And the current bubble is even bigger than the one we saw in 2000.
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Ninja Mobile Trader VPS
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That doesn't really tell the whole story. For example, in 2000 Amazon was lumped in with Pets.com
Now in 2021, Amazon employees more than 1 million people. Would you say Amazon is just a bubble? https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/29/amazon-hiring-pandemic-holidays/
Nasdaq 100 companies by weight: https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100
The Nasdaq 100, the top 100 stocks in the Nasdaq, also took 15 years to make new highs as a group.
Even AZMN on its own took 10 years to go above its 1999 high.
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Agreed, but I guess what I meant was the Amazon of 2000, 2010, and 2020 and very different companies. Also the reach of these companies is far greater today than it was back then. Yahoo in 2000 is nothing like reach of Google today.
Another interesting data point against the bubble popping anytime soon is that excess household savings are at an unprecedented high. https://www.thestandard.com.hk/brea...ehold-savings-in-US-swells-to-US$2.3-trillion
"The U.S. economy, the world’s biggest, is now forecast to expand 6.4% in 2021 — its fastest growth since 1984 — and 3.5% in 2022." https://apnews.com/article/world-ne...emic-economy-95c0c07f39af685fac274df73738f61a
I don't know when this latest stock market bubble is going to pop, maybe this year, maybe next year or maybe in five years time.
The point i was making is that it could takes years to get back to all time highs after it pops.
The real answer is that nobody knows what the future holds, we can only look back at history to see how things played out in the past. And in the case of US tech stock market bubbles we don't have to look back that far.
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99.9999999% of all companies never achieved what Amazon did. So Amazon was the exception that confirmed the rule that what they did is almost possible.
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Japan has also had zero population growth since the 90s...
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Ninja Mobile Trader VPS
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For a day trader's perspective, it's crucial to not miss the big up and down days. The worst days should be just as easy to day trade a strong down trend.
As a trader I would never miss the opening even during a vacation. Organizations have traders filling in for each other, but as an individual we don't have backups. I could be half way around the world on a beach, and will always set an alarm to check the markets and be ready to trade strong trend days. Runners on these days make or break profit for the entire year. The rest of the year are days filled with cutting losers quickly in chop.
Roughly 50,000 listed companies in the world. I count several did what Amazon did ( let's just say Apple, Google and Microsoft ). So that's at least 4 out of 50,000. So only 99.992% of companies didn't. The number is probably lower but it's not higher. Saying it's "almost impossible" is stupid. There are moves like this every generation; the numbers may be bigger now but we have global markets now. Microsoft has been going strong since the 1980s. 99.9999999% is a ridiculous exaggeration. But this is what permabears do, make ridiculous claims. There are a ton of companies out there that have made sustained, large moves over decades.