50/50

burt_schroder · Jul 19, 2013

50/50 minus expenses and the order fill system, it's not even 50/50, the odds are against you.

Q1. Are long term speculative traders lucky?

Q2. If the answer to Q1 should be a resounding NO, then why can't everyone make money?

Q3. Edge!? Do only wannabees/jealous types, ask what an edge is?

kut2k2 · Jul 19, 2013

Quote from burt_schroder:

50/50 minus expenses and the order fill system, it's not even 50/50, the odds are against you.

If by 50/50 you mean zero expectation then yes, the smart move is no move. This is why the Kelly fraction for a zero-expectation scenario is itself zero.

Quote from burt_schroder:

Q1. Are long term speculative traders lucky?

Depends. If by long-term you mean long-term successful, then such a trader is either very lucky or very skillful.

Quote from burt_schroder:

Q2. If the answer to Q1 should be a resounding NO, then why can't everyone make money?

Q3. Edge!? Do only wannabees/jealous types, ask what an edge is?

Q2 - not everybody is either lucky or skillful.

Q3 - I imagine anyone who doesn't know the meaning of edge would ask what it is. The problems arise when the questioner is unwilling to accept the correct definition or is actually looking for a detailed specific formula that he can glom unto.

Far too many newbie traders naively expect some benevolent mentor to magically appear, gently take them by one hand and painlessly guide them straight from Newbieville to some holy grail. Why some people think the world works this way is anybody's guess.

burt_schroder · Jul 19, 2013

Quote from kut2k2:

If by 50/50 you mean zero expectation then yes, the smart move is no move. This is why the Kelly fraction for a zero-expectation scenario is itself zero.
Depends. If by long-term you mean long-term successful, then such a trader is either very lucky or very skillful.
Q2 - not everybody is either lucky or skillful.

Q3 - I imagine anyone who doesn't know the meaning of edge would ask what it is. The problems arise when the questioner is unwilling to accept the correct definition or is actually looking for a detailed specific formula that he can glom unto.

Far too many newbie traders naively expect some benevolent mentor to magically appear, gently take them by one hand and painlessly guide them straight from Newbieville to some holy grail. Why some people think the world works this way is anybody's guess.

For me, at least, you've pretty much nailed it there buddy.

+1.