5 Predictions for Real World Assets in 2024

Lazy socialists think that everyone who works is "exploited". Those of us with a bit more maturity understand that work is what pulls counties out of the dark ages into the modern industrial era. Without hundreds of millions of people getting up every day and pulling an oar, you'd be starving on the street while the world reverts to ignorance and subsistence farming.
That's not the point, Mr. Capitalism. What I was saying is that you're investing for capital appreciation. In another word, you're doing this strictly to make money. Don't pretend that you're doing this out of kindness for the humanity and other nonsense bullshit.
 
Yea. People have been losing money on obvious bubbles since forever. Crypto reminds me of the French Mississippi company. At one time its market cap was greater than the value of all the land in France, yet it only had about 30 employees and effectively did nothing.



It doesn't because the math problem was arbitrary. Anyone who feels like it can come along and pick a slightly different crypto with just as much scarcity as Bitcoin.

Something that may be of interest:

Dogecoin,which was developed as an (albeit tongue in cheek) competitor to bitcoin currently has a circulation of 140 Billion coins.

I'm not aware of a cap and therefore feel confident that any appreciation would be largely due to the meme world and not due to scarcity and the laws of supply and demand.Thus,it is not in my portfolio*.

*Full disclosure,I do own $250 worth of Doge which I was intending to give to my young nephews for Xmas to sort of whet their appetites and give them something with a bit of volatility to keep an eye on.Didnt get around to setting up their wallets so I am actually currently invested.:D.Should be out by new years!:D
 
That's not the point, Mr. Capitalism. What I was saying is that you're investing for capital appreciation. In another word, you're doing this strictly to make money. Don't pretend that you're doing this out of kindness for the humanity and other nonsense bullshit.

The projection here is amusing.
Not all of us will do literally anything for money, despite whatever your commie friends may have told you.

I understand you have to tell yourself that everyone else is doing it too. Otherwise you might question the morality of pushing Bitcoin when you know the only way to get more out than you put in is to have someone else put more money in.

I buy things that I think make a legitimate contribution to the world economy. I also tend to buy companies that pay dividends. I don't need to talk my book and hope the share price goes through the roof because I get paid even if I never sell.
 
Just thinking out loud is all. No position, no axe to grind. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, for what its worth.
! BTC 2024.png
 
What was that about Gold being a better store of value than Bitcoin?
https://x.com/saylor/status/1740846181566279911?s=20

View attachment 330681

Personally, I feel like gold is tough because the market is small relative to the overall economy. This makes it subject to manipulation, distortions, etc. A limited allocation can make sense, and in some cases your personal situation may have other considerations that outweigh those factors.

It's also worth remembering that gold futures have some funky rules that IMO make CME gold less that 100% trustworthy.
"Note: In the event the aforementioned calculations described in this advisory cannot be made or if CME Group staff, in its sole discretion, determines that anomalous activity yields results that are not representative of the fair value of the contract, the staff may determine an alternative settlement price."
https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Settlement+Disclaimer+and+Contact

"FAILURE TO DELIVER In the event a clearing member fails to fulfill its specific delivery obligations pursuant to Exchange rules, the sole obligation of the Clearing House is to pay reasonable damages proximately caused by such delivery obligation failure, in an amount which shall not exceed the difference between the delivery price of the specific commodity and the reasonable market price of such commodity at the time delivery is required according to the rules of the Exchange. The Clearing House shall not be obligated to: (1) make or accept delivery of the actual commodity; or (2) pay any damages relating to the accuracy, genuineness, completeness, or acceptableness of certificates, instruments, warehouse receipts, shipping certificates, or other similar documents; or (3) pay any damages relating to the failure or insolvency of banks, depositories, warehouses, shipping stations, or similar organizations or entities that may be involved with a delivery. © Copyright Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 8 of 15 Notwithstanding any provision of the rules, the Clearing House has no obligation or liability to any clearing member or any other person relating to a failure to fulfill a delivery obligation unless it is notified by the clearing member that did perform, or was in a position to perform its delivery obligations, that a failure occurred, as soon as possible, but in no event later than 1 hour after the delivery deadline for the respective product, which may be extended by the Global Head of Clearing & Post-Trade Services or their designee pursuant to the provisions of Rule 702. If a clearing member does not fulfill its delivery obligations to another clearing member, it shall be responsible to the Clearing House f..."
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/CME/I/7/7.pdf

So if a gold bug's dream comes true and there is a run on gold, I would expect CME to just stop delivering gold and force you to settle for a paper price. Of course that price wouldn't be reflective of reality because actually buying the gold would drive the price up.
 
Personally, I feel like gold is tough because the market is small relative to the overall economy. This makes it subject to manipulation, distortions, etc. A limited allocation can make sense, and in some cases your personal situation may have other considerations that outweigh those factors.

It's also worth remembering that gold futures have some funky rules that IMO make CME gold less that 100% trustworthy.
"Note: In the event the aforementioned calculations described in this advisory cannot be made or if CME Group staff, in its sole discretion, determines that anomalous activity yields results that are not representative of the fair value of the contract, the staff may determine an alternative settlement price."
https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Settlement+Disclaimer+and+Contact

"FAILURE TO DELIVER In the event a clearing member fails to fulfill its specific delivery obligations pursuant to Exchange rules, the sole obligation of the Clearing House is to pay reasonable damages proximately caused by such delivery obligation failure, in an amount which shall not exceed the difference between the delivery price of the specific commodity and the reasonable market price of such commodity at the time delivery is required according to the rules of the Exchange. The Clearing House shall not be obligated to: (1) make or accept delivery of the actual commodity; or (2) pay any damages relating to the accuracy, genuineness, completeness, or acceptableness of certificates, instruments, warehouse receipts, shipping certificates, or other similar documents; or (3) pay any damages relating to the failure or insolvency of banks, depositories, warehouses, shipping stations, or similar organizations or entities that may be involved with a delivery. © Copyright Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 8 of 15 Notwithstanding any provision of the rules, the Clearing House has no obligation or liability to any clearing member or any other person relating to a failure to fulfill a delivery obligation unless it is notified by the clearing member that did perform, or was in a position to perform its delivery obligations, that a failure occurred, as soon as possible, but in no event later than 1 hour after the delivery deadline for the respective product, which may be extended by the Global Head of Clearing & Post-Trade Services or their designee pursuant to the provisions of Rule 702. If a clearing member does not fulfill its delivery obligations to another clearing member, it shall be responsible to the Clearing House f..."
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/CME/I/7/7.pdf

So if a gold bug's dream comes true and there is a run on gold, I would expect CME to just stop delivering gold and force you to settle for a paper price. Of course that price wouldn't be reflective of reality because actually buying the gold would drive the price up.

you don’t see the irony in the fact that bitcoin alleviates all of these concerns? Bitcoin is completely traceable, there can be no funny games played at all, since everything is on chain. Same reason why it’s a terrible thing for criminals to use. Plus, the supply is known to the decimal. It relieves all of these opaque characteristics of gold, you don’t see that?
 
you don’t see the irony in the fact that bitcoin alleviates all of these concerns? Bitcoin is completely traceable, there can be no funny games played at all, since everything is on chain. Same reason why it’s a terrible thing for criminals to use. Plus, the supply is known to the decimal. It relieves all of these opaque characteristics of gold, you don’t see that?

Actually it doesn't solve problems for futures contracts AT ALL which is what I was referring to.
Bitcoin is not some magical wand that solves all problems.

If I buy a futures contract to receive 5 Bitcoins in six months there is still risk of default. If they do default, it is up to the courts and the language of the contract to determine what I get.

The block chain essentially solves zero problems in this scenario. There is not some magical Bitcoin police that stops people from defaulting on contracts just because Bitcoin is involved. Nor is there a magical fairy that stops them from offering contracts and thereby affecting the price.

It's amazing how much financially illiterate nonsense you get out of Bitcoin supporters. You would think no crypto firms have ever gone bankrupt before.
 
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You would think no crypto firms have ever gone bankrupt before.

I watched plenty of FIAT banks go under (live) since TGFC. Some of them were large investment banks that are no more.

You would think no fiat firms have ever gone bankrupt before.
 
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