5 Predictions for Real World Assets in 2024

[engineering]

totally predictable in supply,

Ignoring the giant pile of Bitcoin in a single account that no one seems to know who controls it or if it is controlled.

not controlled by any government, unstoppable by governments, not confiscatable short of violence

You need to learn about the real world more. There is more in heaven and earth than is dreamt of in crypto newsletters.

The lack of basic problem solving ability or lack of ruthlessness you assign to world governments is hilarious. A judge just holds you in contempt until you give up your keys, duh. And if they want to shut it all down they just have to go after the servers which have to publicly advertise themselves in order to be useful in clearing transactions.

Read this book to see what kinds of things governments will do when they want to stop certain financial transactions
https://www.harpoon-book.com/
At one point they dropped a 500 lb bomb on a bank president's house.

 

[GlobalMacro90]

It hasn't beat every asset. You're forgetting lotto tickets, winning NCAA brackets, horse track tickets, unopened packs of old trading cards, etc

when this is the response it’s hard to take anything else seriously. 2024 is going to be a tough year for you man. You should probably take that bitcoin price off your screen now.

 

[MarkBrown]

Read this book to see what kinds of things governments will do when they want to stop certain financial transactions
https://www.harpoon-book.com/
At one point they dropped a 500 lb bomb on a bank president's house.

like maybe stage a couple of buildings to collapse to cover up government wrongdoing and forward the one world agenda all at one blow?

 

[semperfrosty]

It hasn't beat every asset. You're forgetting lotto tickets, winning NCAA brackets, horse track tickets, unopened packs of old trading cards, etc. There may even be a few publicly traded instruments that have done better.

And that's only if you look at price appreciation. It's a non-productive asset. It produces nothing. The only money you can get out of it is money someone else puts into it.

One of the funny things about all this is Bitcoin maximalists like to act all smug and point out the returns, but they never seem to point to a solid model that previously accurately predicted those returns and predicts them out into the future.

Its a mined resource and it has value related to its scarcity,simliar to any other resource.

You may invest in platinum but I would bet youll never have held a piece of platinum in your hand.It has value regardless.

When you hold a dollar note in your hand,you may feel that you do have something of 'actual' value.'Bitcoin maximalists' would educate you otherwise.

Someone who is winning can often seem smug.Don't forget that for several years those same people were losing and wrestling with their investment.It was a dark winter and the detractors offered no sympathy.Let them enjoy a bit of time in the sun.

 

[engineering]

Its a mined resource and it has value related to its scarcity,simliar to any other resource.

No it's not mined. It's the result of solving an arbitrary math problem with no real world significance other than proving one has solved that math problem.

Calling it "mining" is marketing.

If I invested in platinum, I would either be buying actual physical platinum (useful for electrodes in chemical processes) or in paper claims on platinum. In the case of buying paper claims they would be real binding contacts, backed up by a court system and periodic audits. No audits or weird jurisdiction would mean no money from me. (Unlike all the crypto customers who have been recently wiped out by bankruptcies after ignoring obvious red flags about the firms they were involved in)

 

[schizo]

how do you reconcile bitcoin outperforming essentially every asset over a 3+ year time frame?

You might as well say 1 year performance, since all the profit you made in 2021 was wiped out in the following year. You would actually be down more than 43% (from January 2021 to January 2023).

Not bashing BTC, just stating the fact.

 

[schizo]

If I invested in platinum, I would either be buying actual physical platinum (useful for electrodes in chemical processes) or in paper claims on platinum. In the case of buying paper claims they would be real binding contacts, backed up by a court system and periodic audits. No audits or weird jurisdiction would mean no money from me. (Unlike all the crypto customers who have been recently wiped out by bankruptcies after ignoring obvious red flags about the firms they were involved in)

Let's be real about it. You don't invest in platinum because it does any good for the world. You don't care about the mines and all the dangers these miners face and how they're exploited by the mine owners. Your real aim is to make money. That's the sole purpose.

Same thing with Bitcoin and all the other "investment" (aka speculation).

 

[semperfrosty]

No it's not mined. It's the result of solving an arbitrary math problem with no real world significance other than proving one has solved that math problem.

Calling it "mining" is marketing.

If I invested in platinum, I would either be buying actual physical platinum (useful for electrodes in chemical processes) or in paper claims on platinum. In the case of buying paper claims they would be real binding contacts, backed up by a court system and periodic audits. No audits or weird jurisdiction would mean no money from me. (Unlike all the crypto customers who have been recently wiped out by bankruptcies after ignoring obvious red flags about the firms they were involved in)

I get your angle that the crypto industry has been a bit wild and that makes it perhaps not as steadfast investment as some more regulated industries.I would contend that people were losing their life savings to cowboys and conmen since the beginning of time.Its not a crypto thing,its a human thing.You need to do your due diligence and the cheapest path is rarely the safest.

My point re scarcity stands though.Whether its 'solved' or 'mined',once completed you have taken delivery of something of value.You can purchase something with that currency,you can squirrel it away and hope that it appreciates in value or you can trade the fluctuations in its price.It's scarcity(capped supply)should mean that it remains of value or appreciates with increased demand.

Speaking of 'since the beginning of time',imagine the first human who was convinced that 'these brass tacks are exactly the same as a donkey! You can take these brass tacks and buy a donkey whenever you need it!' . It takes a bit to get your head around and you will feel safer when 'everyones doing it'.

 

[engineering]

I would contend that people were losing their life savings to cowboys and conmen since the beginning of time

Yea. People have been losing money on obvious bubbles since forever. Crypto reminds me of the French Mississippi company. At one time its market cap was greater than the value of all the land in France, yet it only had about 30 employees and effectively did nothing.

My point re scarcity stands though.

It doesn't because the math problem was arbitrary. Anyone who feels like it can come along and pick a slightly different crypto with just as much scarcity as Bitcoin.

 

[engineering]

Let's be real about it. You don't invest in platinum because it does any good for the world. You don't care about the mines and all the dangers these miners face and how they're exploited by the mine owners. Your real aim is to make money. That's the sole purpose.

Same thing with Bitcoin and all the other "investment" (aka speculation).

Lazy socialists think that everyone who works is "exploited". Those of us with a bit more maturity understand that work is what pulls counties out of the dark ages into the modern industrial era. Without hundreds of millions of people getting up every day and pulling an oar, you'd be starving on the street while the world reverts to ignorance and subsistence farming.