5 Harsh Truths No Crypto Investor Wants to Hear

1. In a World of Bitcoin Experts, Nobody Knows Anything -.......... True, BTC is shrouded in secrecy and 90% of all the BTC is mined in China. But BTC is only 1 of 3800 coins. And it's usefulness is limited. It only exists because the name is popular and people speculate with it. The only thing it is good for is speculation and using it to buy other coins.

2. You’re Here Because of Emotions, Not Shrewd Financial Acumen - ......... No, there are good reasons why cryptos are not going away. Emotions ruled the day in December of 2017, but that was 2 years ago. There are a lot of reasons why BCH, XRP, XLM and others will continue to do well and survive the shakeout of cryptos. Last month China announced they are going to create their own digital currency. Other nations will follow.


3. Most ‘Expert’ Opinions are Bought and Paid For - ........... Can't disagree with you there. There is a lot of pumping and dumping in cryptos. As well as Amazon reviews.

4. Decentralization is a Utopian Pipe Dream - ............ Eventually, there will be an exchange similar to the Comex or NYSE dedicated to cryptos. It will come after the shakeout.

5. Crypto is a Bubble: At Least 95% Of All Projects Will Fail - ........... Gotta agree. A lot of them are pure crap. Doge coin, Dent coin, Campus coin. Who the F is going to buy a crypto just to pay for their dental bill or buy books and pens on a college campus? But Ripple / XRP is being used for banks for clearing and many other coins are being adopted by other industries for specific purposes. BTC is too labor intensive, uses too much energy, takes too much time to clear and most of the mining is done in China, so it could be manipulated by the government in the future.

Many coins - most - will wash out, but the top 50, perhaps the top 100, most of them will survive the long term. When Deutsche Bank collapses - and it will, the Euro will collapse. People will buy dollars, Pounds and cryptos to preserve their wealth and hide money from the tax man. When that happens more scrutiny will be paid attention to cryptos and the weak ones will die off. But, they aren't going away. I was buying something at Target this week and I paid cash in the self check line. I was wondering how much longer it will be before companies charge you a dollar extra for using cash, the same way that some gas stations charge you 2, 3 percent extra to buy gas with a cc. It is more labor intensive for companies to use cash. Eventually, it will be all digital; cc, debit or apple pay. And I honestly don't think that day is more than 2, 3 years away.

But cryptos are not emotional any more. A lot of smart money is investing in them.


1) I know a few things. Bitcoin bought my house and car and puts food on my table. You can cash it in like a check, or have it deposited on to my visa card... Proves pretty useful.

2) I made my first trade after 2017 when it first went to Chicago, I went short.... I'm here now because rather than depending on earnings from the next Enron I do my own research. Predictive Analytics, sentiment analysis, machine learning and a rock solid investment approach (Market Neutral), to name a few.

3) Most "expert" mouth pieces are full of shit, but that's always been true.

4) Decentralization is already here, and spreading. Know what isn't centralized, the NYSE, hasn't been for almost 20 years. I was trading multi-million share orders with a pen and paper then. Now 90% of all volume is computerized and sent to a server in NJ. The trading floor is a ghost town.

5)Most coins will fail, but it only takes one Google or Amazon to change the world.

Don't worry to much about it being too labor intensive on the computers, or anything along those lines. We almost have it all. Unlike the governments who will just make up money out of thin air and worry about the problem when they are not in office. There will never be more than 21M Bitcoin, we already have 18M. You can not make anymore, ever.
 
1) I know a few things. Bitcoin bought my house and car and puts food on my table. You can cash it in like a check, or have it deposited on to my visa card... Proves pretty useful.

3) Most "expert" mouth pieces are full of shit, but that's always been true.

4) Decentralization is already here, and spreading. Know what isn't centralized, the NYSE, hasn't been for almost 20 years. I was trading multi-million share orders with a pen and paper then. Now 90% of all volume is computerized and sent to a server in NJ. The trading floor is a ghost town.

5)Most coins will fail, but it only takes one Google or Amazon to change the world.

Unlike the governments who will just make up money out of thin air and worry about the problem when they are not in office.


There will never be more than 21M Bitcoin, we already have 18M. You can not make anymore, ever.


Yes, it sounds like it has done well for you.

I gotta agree with you about the experts. Most of the ones on CNBC, and other networks, don't know much more than you or me when they are giving predictive analysis. But, they discuss 50 different stocks in 30 minutes or less and you can't be an expert on everything. I blame the investors that hear them make remarks and don't do their own homework prior to investing.

I am assuming that you still follow the crypto market. I have a small pool of money invested in Ripple, Tezos, BAT, ZCash, and Stellar. Do you invest in any cryptos other than BTC?
Cryptos are here to stay. A lot of them are pure junk and I think that in the next 12-18 months, many of them will not exist or they won't be permitted to trade in the U.S. because they don't meet certain standards. But, I think the top 50, perhaps the top 100 coins will be safe; with the exception of DOGE. Other than BTC, what do you think will do well ?
 
all crypto pimps are scummy con men

tom lee

and the rest

Yeah, there is a lot of that going on.
A lot of people on Twitter and YT are being paid to pump promote, specific cryptos.
Most of them are shiat coins and will fall out when the next recession, or the next Black Swan event hits and cryptos become more valuable.
There are unethical people out there, but there is nothing that can be done about it, because Twitter and YT are considered entertainment, and not sources of professional investment advice.
 
Yes, it sounds like it has done well for you.

I gotta agree with you about the experts. Most of the ones on CNBC, and other networks, don't know much more than you or me when they are giving predictive analysis. But, they discuss 50 different stocks in 30 minutes or less and you can't be an expert on everything. I blame the investors that hear them make remarks and don't do their own homework prior to investing.

I am assuming that you still follow the crypto market. I have a small pool of money invested in Ripple, Tezos, BAT, ZCash, and Stellar. Do you invest in any cryptos other than BTC?
Cryptos are here to stay. A lot of them are pure junk and I think that in the next 12-18 months, many of them will not exist or they won't be permitted to trade in the U.S. because they don't meet certain standards. But, I think the top 50, perhaps the top 100 coins will be safe; with the exception of DOGE. Other than BTC, what do you think will do well ?

I'm very actively involved in Crypto. One of the many great things about it, as seen in the earliest comments, is 98% of people don't understand it. And about 95% of the people who try trading it are just as clueless. It's a whole new world, and there's still time to be at the front of the line.

I'm not just talking about crypto, that's just a small part. We are currently in a new Industrial Revolution with Machine Learning, Deep Learning, ect... The world as we know it will be completely different in 5 years time. People are just clueless and stuck in their ways. While they're getting 1% interest at the bank I'm getting 11% on my crypto stable coin (just like a dollar, not volatility like BTC).

I don't invest a ton in crypto, I'm a trader. I use all the new technology and trade a neutral book of BTC and it's derivatives (futures and options)... And I do various types of arbitrage trades.
But more recently I'm starting to dig a little deeper into it and the industries it's creating, so I'm slowly getting more invested in other things rather than just trading.

I've always been a trader, it's hard to break away from that singular mindset... for me atleast.
 
If anything we are at the peak of a hype cycle or over the current peak after deep learning. This is just how it always goes. No matter what advances we make in AI, it is never good enough short of completely changing the world in 5 years. That is obviously not a realistic view but these crazy views are what cause AI winters because we can never match expectations. It creates this theta/time decay on expectations that no other field has had to deal with on this level. No other field is straight up measured against science fiction the way AI/machine learning is.

The new Industrial Revolution concept is just naive and a narrative from writers/journalists. Most the problems of the world are small data problems that machine learning is not good at. Humans are not good at small data problems either but it is such a different problem than what machine learning is good at. If we are in a bubble right now in anything it is in the idea that everything is going to be automated.

With crypto there is really only one harsh truth and that is you can't have humans trading a market of something that goes from basically zero to hundreds of billions of dollars with zero regulation without massive amounts of fraud. If you are up on your market history, you would have to suspect that crypto markets in 2020 have the most fraud in the history of markets. It is unknowable when the day of reckoning will come but it will come at some point and what things look like on the other side is the interesting part of crypto to me. Right now it is mostly just fun to watch all the scams and fraud that you use to only read about in old trading books.

We are currently in a new Industrial Revolution with Machine Learning, Deep Learning, ect... The world as we know it will be completely different in 5 years time. People are just clueless and stuck in their ways.
 
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If anything we are at the peak of a hype cycle or over the current peak after deep learning. This is just how it always goes. No matter what advances we make in AI, it is never good enough short of completely changing the world in 5 years. That is obviously not a realistic view but these crazy views are what cause AI winters because we can never match expectations. It creates this theta/time decay on expectations that no other field has had to deal with on this level. No other field is straight up measured against science fiction the way AI/machine learning is.

The new Industrial Revolution concept is just naive and a narrative from writers/journalists. Most the problems of the world are small data problems that machine learning is not good at. Humans are not good at small data problems either but it is such a different problem than what machine learning is good at. If we are in a bubble right now in anything it is in the idea that everything is going to be automated.

With crypto there is really only one harsh truth and that is you can't have humans trading a market of something that goes from basically zero to hundreds of billions of dollars with zero regulation without massive amounts of fraud. If you are up on your market history, you would have to suspect that crypto markets in 2020 have the most fraud in the history of markets. It is unknowable when the day of reckoning will come but it will come at some point and what things look like on the other side is the interesting part of crypto to me. Right now it is mostly just fun to watch all the scams and fraud that you use to only read about in old trading books.


Yet another case of someone who has ZERO idea what they are talking about. I simply don't have the time to go line by line with you. To address me here you're using a computer of some sort, you'd be better served stopping off at Google first.

OR even better, why don't you tell me what you know about AI and ML? You must have knowledge of the field to have such an absolute view point, probably well versed in Neural Networks, reinforcement learning, ect... Tell me about it.

Same for crypto, you don't even know what you don't know..... It's not all about Bitcoin, it's Blockchain.

I'm all for a good debate, but this is not a debate. What I'm saying is Fact. Plain and simple.

I'm going to give you a helping hand towards reality. Simply Google '5th industrial revolution'.... (yeah, there were 4 before this...it's a thing)... Browse over the endless results you find. That's the best I can offer.

I don't feel great about having use this "tone", I'm really nice guy. But I am at the end of my rope with people telling me 2+2=Apple. People who CLEARLY have zero knowledge on either topic.

We all hold a portal to all the answers in our hands yet so many people still refuse to actually research something, aka Think before you speak.
 
If anything we are at the peak of a hype cycle or over the current peak after deep learning. This is just how it always goes. No matter what advances we make in AI, it is never good enough short of completely changing the world in 5 years. That is obviously not a realistic view but these crazy views are what cause AI winters because we can never match expectations. It creates this theta/time decay on expectations that no other field has had to deal with on this level. No other field is straight up measured against science fiction the way AI/machine learning is.

The new Industrial Revolution concept is just naive and a narrative from writers/journalists. Most the problems of the world are small data problems that machine learning is not good at. Humans are not good at small data problems either but it is such a different problem than what machine learning is good at. If we are in a bubble right now in anything it is in the idea that everything is going to be automated.

With crypto there is really only one harsh truth and that is you can't have humans trading a market of something that goes from basically zero to hundreds of billions of dollars with zero regulation without massive amounts of fraud. If you are up on your market history, you would have to suspect that crypto markets in 2020 have the most fraud in the history of markets. It is unknowable when the day of reckoning will come but it will come at some point and what things look like on the other side is the interesting part of crypto to me. Right now it is mostly just fun to watch all the scams and fraud that you use to only read about in old trading books.

spot on. When it unravels it will be epic. USDT alone is insane, and this is what we know. Imagine what we do not
Know.
 
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