You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
5% - 10% profit per day trading
- Thread starter spanish89
- Start date
- Status
- Not open for further replies.
Quadraple witch expiry day
today OIL not at all responding to weak dollar/high EURO for about an hour in the morning session .
This felt very odd OIL not responding to BIG weak dollar move . now we know this big OIL drop is in works. next time we should be cautious when we see that kind of odd behavior for hours .
now coming to options , these big traders sell both CALLs and PUTs.
In the final days of the expiration week they have a sense of the market direction going into expiry day. In case of OIL here is how they may keep their positions in the final week.
they may have SOLD CALLs with average strike price of $74 ( 75 % of their total )
they may have SOLD PUTs with avarge strike price of $71 ( 25% of their total )
they may lose some money today on $71 strike PUTs , but they make lots of money on $74
this is an example in OIL price terms, actual options contracts are in OIL stock companies , OIL indices etc..
today OIL not at all responding to weak dollar/high EURO for about an hour in the morning session .
This felt very odd OIL not responding to BIG weak dollar move . now we know this big OIL drop is in works. next time we should be cautious when we see that kind of odd behavior for hours .
now coming to options , these big traders sell both CALLs and PUTs.
In the final days of the expiration week they have a sense of the market direction going into expiry day. In case of OIL here is how they may keep their positions in the final week.
they may have SOLD CALLs with average strike price of $74 ( 75 % of their total )
they may have SOLD PUTs with avarge strike price of $71 ( 25% of their total )
they may lose some money today on $71 strike PUTs , but they make lots of money on $74
this is an example in OIL price terms, actual options contracts are in OIL stock companies , OIL indices etc..
The complex had some difficulty discounting a mix of financial guidance amidst todayâs quadruple
witching session. But, at the end of the day, the crude market obviously opted to follow a plunging gasoline market lower rather than advancing off of a generally weak dollar. Gasoline selling
appeared accentuated by chart damage that triggered massive liquidation from the hedge funds that have been holding an unusually large long position.
We will also continue to emphasize a loss of upward momentum in the crude oil as Tuesdayâs highs above the $73.00 level were never challenged and such a test of these highs is looking increasingly out of reach ahead of Mondayâs expiration of the July WTI crude contract.
Although further pre-expiration support in the front July-August switch to an unusually narrow 45-50 cents continues to send off some bullish vibes, this factor is being negated by a plunge of
more than $3.00/bbl in the nearby 3:2:1 crack spreads subsequent to Wednesdayâs EIA report.
Tosome extent, this pause in the marketâs advance has mirrored the stall in the up-trends of the equity markets. But, we still view the relation between the stock market and oil market as a loose one and would not rule out a downside decoupling in the energy complex if July crude expires in
weak fashion and gasoline supplies post another significant build next week. For now, we suggest holding long summer crude positions as long as July futures hold above the $68.50 level into Mondayâs expiry.
Todayâs crude settlement will approximate a loss of about 3.4% of value since last Friday. Without significant assistance from the product markets, the past weekâs decline could accelerate going forward. Increasingly weak spot gasoline markets have not only removed the RBOB futures as a
significant price prop to the crude but also have quickly established the gasoline market as a significant downward drag on crude futures. So, while the bulls will be highlighting the crude marketâs ability to maintain value above the $69.00 support level, the bears will be stressing the trend line violation in nearby RBOB futures today that pushed July RBOB values to lowest levels since early last week. Although we had expected some stability in the gas cracks, todayâs furthered contraction could well be signaling another sizable gasoline stock build in next weekâs data.
witching session. But, at the end of the day, the crude market obviously opted to follow a plunging gasoline market lower rather than advancing off of a generally weak dollar. Gasoline selling
appeared accentuated by chart damage that triggered massive liquidation from the hedge funds that have been holding an unusually large long position.
We will also continue to emphasize a loss of upward momentum in the crude oil as Tuesdayâs highs above the $73.00 level were never challenged and such a test of these highs is looking increasingly out of reach ahead of Mondayâs expiration of the July WTI crude contract.
Although further pre-expiration support in the front July-August switch to an unusually narrow 45-50 cents continues to send off some bullish vibes, this factor is being negated by a plunge of
more than $3.00/bbl in the nearby 3:2:1 crack spreads subsequent to Wednesdayâs EIA report.
Tosome extent, this pause in the marketâs advance has mirrored the stall in the up-trends of the equity markets. But, we still view the relation between the stock market and oil market as a loose one and would not rule out a downside decoupling in the energy complex if July crude expires in
weak fashion and gasoline supplies post another significant build next week. For now, we suggest holding long summer crude positions as long as July futures hold above the $68.50 level into Mondayâs expiry.
Todayâs crude settlement will approximate a loss of about 3.4% of value since last Friday. Without significant assistance from the product markets, the past weekâs decline could accelerate going forward. Increasingly weak spot gasoline markets have not only removed the RBOB futures as a
significant price prop to the crude but also have quickly established the gasoline market as a significant downward drag on crude futures. So, while the bulls will be highlighting the crude marketâs ability to maintain value above the $69.00 support level, the bears will be stressing the trend line violation in nearby RBOB futures today that pushed July RBOB values to lowest levels since early last week. Although we had expected some stability in the gas cracks, todayâs furthered contraction could well be signaling another sizable gasoline stock build in next weekâs data.
"The big pressure on oil today is the stronger dollar yet again," said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. "Last week's drop in gasoline prices is also having an impact, but right now crude is due for a bit of a breather as the July contract gets ready to go off the board."
Gasoline prices tumbled more than 5% on Friday.
"Iran is sort of a non-issue [for the oil market] right now, and if we see the dollar be able to hold support here, we may see oil prices weaken further, [but] of course the opposite is true should the dollar fall apart," Kerr said.
Gasoline prices tumbled more than 5% on Friday.
"Iran is sort of a non-issue [for the oil market] right now, and if we see the dollar be able to hold support here, we may see oil prices weaken further, [but] of course the opposite is true should the dollar fall apart," Kerr said.
holding short from 67.40, really hope we're going to do a real drop soon.
my news analysis and other reports indicate AUG oil will inch up a dollar to 68.40 level tomorrow before going down again , few reasons for this is
- oil gave up $2.50 each on friday and monday totalling $5
- FMOC will continue tomorrow and day after with final news Wednesday
- gasoline is expected another bearish report on Wednesday EIA report, so before API number on tuesday evening there should be small pop of $1
- S&P may be up 6 points to 900 level before giving up again to down on tuesday
Any ideas on oil price form here ..
- oil gave up $2.50 each on friday and monday totalling $5
- FMOC will continue tomorrow and day after with final news Wednesday
- gasoline is expected another bearish report on Wednesday EIA report, so before API number on tuesday evening there should be small pop of $1
- S&P may be up 6 points to 900 level before giving up again to down on tuesday
Any ideas on oil price form here ..
different Commodity sector related stocks are down 30% - 15% for last 6 sessions , as news analysis shows
Big traders are taking profit in an orderly manner from all commodity sector for last 1 week since there was a big run in profit in this commodity sector for the quarter APR 1 - JUNE end
tomorrow the OIL should stabilize little bit after this huge 2 day sell off
Big traders are taking profit in an orderly manner from all commodity sector for last 1 week since there was a big run in profit in this commodity sector for the quarter APR 1 - JUNE end
tomorrow the OIL should stabilize little bit after this huge 2 day sell off
Wednesday AM market
The Treasury Department is set to auction off $37 billion in five-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT. And the Federal Reserve's interest-rate committee will emerge from a two-day meeting and issue its latest policy statement at 2:15 Eastern.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 101 points, or 1.2%, trading at 8423.57, recouping about half of the steep loss it had posted so far this week coming into Wednesday's action.
The S&P 500 was up 1.7%, boosted by a jump of 3.3% in its basic-materials sector after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it revised upward its economic forecasts for this year and next. The Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is sensitive to shifts in the economic outlook, leapt 3.7%.
The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.3%, helped by a 7.3% jump for Oracle after the software maker beat estimates by posting a 7% slide in earnings last quarter and issued better-than-expected guidance.
The Commerce Department reported that durable-goods orders rose 1.8% in May, contrary to analysts' expectations for a slight retreat. A gauge of capital spending in the report also jumped, and orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 4.8%, after decreasing 2.9% in April. It was the largest increase since 8.2% in September 2004.
In other economic news, new-home sales sank 0.6% last month as prices fell 3.4% year over year and inventories fell slightly. Builder stocks were mostly higher.
Later in the day, all eyes will turn to the Fed. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and is unlikely to announce any other major changes in policy, though traders will be watching for any changes in the Fed's economic outlook or signals that it's beginning to consider an exit strategy from its quantitative-easing program.
Treasury prices edged lower. The two-year note was off 3/32 to yield 1.2%. The 10-year note slipped 13/32 to yield 3.673%. An auction of $40 billion in two-year notes attracted robust demand on Tuesday, a hopeful sign for bidding on the five-year notes.
Investors have wondered lately about the ability of both the U.S. government and some of its overseas counterparts to finance expensive stimulus and bailout programs over the long haul.
On Wednesday, the European Central Bank pumped a record amount of liquidity into its money market, as banks jumped at the opportunity of locking in low funding costs for 12 months.
Banks took up the ECB's offer of unlimited funds at 1% to the tune of 442.24 billion euros. However, much of that amount merely substituted money which they had been borrowing for shorter periods, and so the net stimulus to the economy is less than it appeared to be at first sight.
Analysts said the high demand for the funds reflected the problems some banks are still having in funding their businesses. At the same time, it also reflected expectations that the euro zone's economy will start to recover later in the year, and that the low rates offered this week may not be around for much longer thereafter.
Overseas, European stocks posted small gains as metals and bank stocks rose. Asia markets ended mixed.
The dollar was stronger. Oil futures slipped 53 cents to $68.71 a barrel in New York after new inventory data showed a surprisingly large increase in U.S. reserves of gasoline
The Treasury Department is set to auction off $37 billion in five-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT. And the Federal Reserve's interest-rate committee will emerge from a two-day meeting and issue its latest policy statement at 2:15 Eastern.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 101 points, or 1.2%, trading at 8423.57, recouping about half of the steep loss it had posted so far this week coming into Wednesday's action.
The S&P 500 was up 1.7%, boosted by a jump of 3.3% in its basic-materials sector after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it revised upward its economic forecasts for this year and next. The Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is sensitive to shifts in the economic outlook, leapt 3.7%.
The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.3%, helped by a 7.3% jump for Oracle after the software maker beat estimates by posting a 7% slide in earnings last quarter and issued better-than-expected guidance.
The Commerce Department reported that durable-goods orders rose 1.8% in May, contrary to analysts' expectations for a slight retreat. A gauge of capital spending in the report also jumped, and orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 4.8%, after decreasing 2.9% in April. It was the largest increase since 8.2% in September 2004.
In other economic news, new-home sales sank 0.6% last month as prices fell 3.4% year over year and inventories fell slightly. Builder stocks were mostly higher.
Later in the day, all eyes will turn to the Fed. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and is unlikely to announce any other major changes in policy, though traders will be watching for any changes in the Fed's economic outlook or signals that it's beginning to consider an exit strategy from its quantitative-easing program.
Treasury prices edged lower. The two-year note was off 3/32 to yield 1.2%. The 10-year note slipped 13/32 to yield 3.673%. An auction of $40 billion in two-year notes attracted robust demand on Tuesday, a hopeful sign for bidding on the five-year notes.
Investors have wondered lately about the ability of both the U.S. government and some of its overseas counterparts to finance expensive stimulus and bailout programs over the long haul.
On Wednesday, the European Central Bank pumped a record amount of liquidity into its money market, as banks jumped at the opportunity of locking in low funding costs for 12 months.
Banks took up the ECB's offer of unlimited funds at 1% to the tune of 442.24 billion euros. However, much of that amount merely substituted money which they had been borrowing for shorter periods, and so the net stimulus to the economy is less than it appeared to be at first sight.
Analysts said the high demand for the funds reflected the problems some banks are still having in funding their businesses. At the same time, it also reflected expectations that the euro zone's economy will start to recover later in the year, and that the low rates offered this week may not be around for much longer thereafter.
Overseas, European stocks posted small gains as metals and bank stocks rose. Asia markets ended mixed.
The dollar was stronger. Oil futures slipped 53 cents to $68.71 a barrel in New York after new inventory data showed a surprisingly large increase in U.S. reserves of gasoline
Re: Wednesday EIA report
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reversed their earlier losses Wednesday, rising for a second session after government data showed a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories.
Also boosting prices, economic data showed a better-than-expected increase in durable-goods orders for May.
The gains in oil, however, were limited as the weekly data on petroleum stockpiles also showed gasoline inventories rose more than expected, a reflection of producers increased their output.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for August delivery rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.46 a barrel. Crude's two-day gain came after it hit a three-week low on Monday.
"This report could set up a battle between the bulls and the bears," said James Williams, economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics. "Crude-oil stocks went down as much as gasoline stocks increased."
Crude inventories fell 3.8 million barrels in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration reported. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a decline of 1.2 million barrels.
The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week, more than the buildup of 1 million barrels that analysts had been looking for. The EIA also reported an increase of 2.1 million barrels in distillate inventories for the latest week.
Refiners boosted production in anticipation of higher fuel demand in the summer driving season. Gasoline production stood at 9.2 million barrels a day last week, up 1% from the previous week.
U.S. refineries ran at 87.1% of their operable capacity last week, the highest level since the week ended Dec. 5, EIA historical data showed.
The EIA data sent "mixed," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors.
However, "we do feel both the crude and gasoline markets could see a downward correction in the next few weeks as demand is looking weak," Zahir continued.
Total implied demand for petroleum products over the last four-week period has averaged 18.3 million barrels a day, down by 6.6% compared to the similar period last year, the EIA reported.
Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stockpiles for last week fell by 72,000 barrels, while supplies of distillates and gasoline rose by 2.3 million barrels and 3.7 million barrels, respectively.
The Washington-based API, an industry trade group, uses different criteria for measuring changes in inventories.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reversed their earlier losses Wednesday, rising for a second session after government data showed a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories.
Also boosting prices, economic data showed a better-than-expected increase in durable-goods orders for May.
The gains in oil, however, were limited as the weekly data on petroleum stockpiles also showed gasoline inventories rose more than expected, a reflection of producers increased their output.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for August delivery rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.46 a barrel. Crude's two-day gain came after it hit a three-week low on Monday.
"This report could set up a battle between the bulls and the bears," said James Williams, economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics. "Crude-oil stocks went down as much as gasoline stocks increased."
Crude inventories fell 3.8 million barrels in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration reported. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a decline of 1.2 million barrels.
The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week, more than the buildup of 1 million barrels that analysts had been looking for. The EIA also reported an increase of 2.1 million barrels in distillate inventories for the latest week.
Refiners boosted production in anticipation of higher fuel demand in the summer driving season. Gasoline production stood at 9.2 million barrels a day last week, up 1% from the previous week.
U.S. refineries ran at 87.1% of their operable capacity last week, the highest level since the week ended Dec. 5, EIA historical data showed.
The EIA data sent "mixed," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors.
However, "we do feel both the crude and gasoline markets could see a downward correction in the next few weeks as demand is looking weak," Zahir continued.
Total implied demand for petroleum products over the last four-week period has averaged 18.3 million barrels a day, down by 6.6% compared to the similar period last year, the EIA reported.
Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stockpiles for last week fell by 72,000 barrels, while supplies of distillates and gasoline rose by 2.3 million barrels and 3.7 million barrels, respectively.
The Washington-based API, an industry trade group, uses different criteria for measuring changes in inventories.
everybody else waiting till 2:15, or is anybody intraday trading this?
- Status
- Not open for further replies.