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Economic data

Investors' optimism about an economic recovery was boosted Tuesday by upbeat economic data from the U.S.

U.S. housing starts bounced back in May, rising 17.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000 after plunging 12.9% in April to a postwar low, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. See related story.

Meanwhile, inflation remained mild. Producer prices rose 0.2% in May, after seasonal adjustments, with higher energy prices offsetting a drop in food prices, according to the government. The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, fell 0.1%.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the overall producer price index to rise 0.5% and for the core to gain 0.1%. See Economic Report.


Supply data ahead

The American Petroleum Institute will release data on U.S. petroleum inventories at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. The Energy Information Administration will report its more closely watched data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

Analysts are expecting a decline of 1.7 million barrels in crude stockpiles during the week ended June 12, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

They also project increases of 650,000 barrels for gasoline and 950,000 barrels for distillates, the survey showed.

Without a sizable recovery in U.S. crude imports, inventories are apt to decline again, said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst.
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-dips-further-but-holds-ground-above-70

"Currently, the $70 mark provides strong support for the market," analysts at Credit Suisse wrote in a research note Wednesday.

"All eyes will be on weekly U.S. oil inventories," they said. "The key data point to watch will be U.S. total petroleum demand. After last week's spike, another increase would be positive for prices."

The Energy Information Administration is slated Wednesday morning to release its data on petroleum supplies for the week ended June 12.

Analysts are expecting a decline of 1.7 million barrels in crude stockpiles during the week ended June 12, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline of 1.3 million barrels in crude supplies for last week.
 
The U.S. Energy Department weekly report today will probably show that crude stockpiles dropped 2 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. U.S. crude oil supplies are 11 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline supplies probably rose 550,000 barrels in the week ended June 12 from 201.6 million the previous week.
 
Oil extends losses as gasoline stocks rise

crude -3.9
gasoline +3.4

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures accelerated their decline on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported a bigger-than-expected drop in crude supplies and a much larger-than-expected rise in gasoline stocks. Oil for July delivery was last down $1.32, or 2%, to $69.10 a barrel in electronic trading on Globex.

Before the data, the contract was down 85 cents. The EIA reported Wednesday that crude supplies decreased by 3.9 million barrels during the week ended June 12 to stand at 357.7 million barrels. Analysts expected a decline of 1.7 million barrels in crude stockpiles, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels last week, while analysts polled by Platts had expected a rise of only 650,000 barrels.

The EIA also said that distillate inventories rose by 0.3 million barrels last week.


Quote from InvestVision:

The U.S. Energy Department weekly report today will probably show that crude stockpiles dropped 2 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. U.S. crude oil supplies are 11 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline supplies probably rose 550,000 barrels in the week ended June 12 from 201.6 million the previous week.
More...
 
Stock analyst: green shoots in housing market need fertilizer

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stock investors drew fleeting comfort from the latest data on the troubled housing market, with home starts popping unexpectedly higher last month.

But analysts on Wednesday signaled caution on the sector and related industries, with tentative bright spots threatened by rising unemployment and mortgage rates.

"The selloff over the past couple of days in the stock market suggests that we need to see green stalks, not just green shoots. Even yesterday's better-than-expected rebound in May's housing starts didn't stop stocks from dropping for a second day," Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist, Yardeni Research Inc., wrote in a note.

Leading housing indicators point to a possible bottoming in housing in the second quarter, and also suggest a slow recovery, "with all stalled around recent highs," said Yardeni.

The Commerce Department on Tuesday estimated U.S. housing starts rose 17.2% in May, with the spurt led by a 62% gain in new construction of multifamily-swellings. Read Economic Report.

Conversely, shares of Best Buy Co /quotes/comstock/13*!bby/quotes/nls/bby (BBY 36.02, +0.18, +0.50%) fell more than 7% Tuesday after the consumer electronics retailer reported a 6% fall in same-store sales. The bellwether retail stock could be the "canary in the coal mine," signaling weakness in the economy and retail stocks at large, according to one fund investor. Read more.

"Pulling consumers into stores and getting them to spend will remain a challenge as long as gas prices continue to rise and the economy continues shedding jobs," said Yardeni.

Investors tuned back into the computer and electronics retail industry in a big way after the demise of Circuit City, with the stock price index up 29% on the year and up 92.1% from a 12-year low in November, Yardeni said.

The home improvement retail sector may well have it bottom judging by the upbeat earnings guidance issued last week by Home Depot Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!hd/quotes/nls/hd (HD 23.49, +0.29, +1.25%) , with the industry's price index up 45% from a 10-year low in March, according to Yardeni.

"After 11 straight years of double-digit earnings growth from 1995-2005, earnings have been pummeled by the housing recession and may take some time to benefit from lower interest rates," wrote the analyst. See detailed story.

On Wednesday, energy, materials and financials led Wall Street's declines, while defensive plays - health care, consumer staples and utilities - fronted the limited gains.
 
Manufacturing firms in the Philadelphia region reported the best business conditions since September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday. The Philly Fed index improved to negative 2.2 in June from negative 22.6 in May.
 
I am loving these swings in the crude since last week!
I am overshooting my targets sometimes before the market even opens and max 1 hour into the open...
 
Low volume day and contract switch over is happening... wonder where the last 30 minutes will bring us. gasoline and the dollar are diverging so i'm sitting on the side.
 
EURO poped upside for 15 minutes , still AUG crude at 7220 level , i think it is due for 40 cents push

It seems oil waiting for SP to push 3 points for the above oil move
 
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