5% - 10% profit per day trading

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major news for oil for last one week

Jun 10, 2009 - Oil tops $71 a barrel as inventories fall
Jun 09, 2009 - Crude ends above $70 for first time 7 months
Jun 08, 2009 - Oil ends lower, then rebounds in after-hours trade
Jun 05, 2009 - Stronger dollar and weaker demand weigh on oil
Jun 04, 2009 - Crude approaches $70 as jobless claims dip
 
Retail sales rise 0.5%, but it's mostly higher prices

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. sales at retail stores increased 0.5% in May, but much of the seasonally adjusted increase reflected higher gasoline prices, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

Sales rose for just the fourth time in the past 12 months. Compared with May 2008, sales are down 9.6%, reflecting the huge contraction in consumer spending as the recession tightened its grip.

Compared with the first five months of 2008, sales so far this year are down 10.2%. Read the full report.

The 0.5% increase in May from April was less than the 0.7% forecast by economists, but upward revisions to March and April put total sales receipts in May close to expectations. Sales fell 1.2% in March and 0.2% in April. See Economic Calendar.

The figures are adjusted for seasonal differences and numbers of trading days, but they aren't adjusted for price changes.

Economists expect consumer spending to be a drag on economic growth again in the second quarter after spending grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting a 2% annualized decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter, which ends June 30. They then see GDP turning higher, rising at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter.

Gasoline sales jumped 3.6% last month, a function of higher prices at the pump. Excluding gas, retail sales increased 0.2% in May and were down 6.5% compared with a year earlier.
 
today factors on oil so far
bullish: drop in initial claims
bullish: weakdollar
bearish: smaller-than-expected rise in retail sales in May

waits another key auction of government debt

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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures dipped early on Thursday, losing early steam after the government reported a smaller-than-expected rise in retail sales in May.

A market increasingly fixated on bonds also awaits another key auction of government debt.

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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Copper futures rose Thursday as government data showed a rise in U.S. May retail sales and a decline in weekly initial jobless claims, raising hopes for an economic recovery.

The number of first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 24,000 to 601,000 in the week ended June 6, the Labor Department reported Thursday. May retail sales increased 0.5%, the Commerce Department reported.

After the data, July copper rose 4.3 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.41 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal has gained more than 5% this week.

Gold and silver, however, moved lower, as the economic data curbed the precious metals' appeal as a safe haven. August gold fell $8.40, or 0.9%, to $946.30 an ounce, and July silver lost 25 cents, or 1.6%, to $14.975 an ounce.

Also pushing copper higher Thursday, trade data from China, the world's biggest copper consumer, showed the country's May imports of copper hit a fresh high for the fourth straight month.

Copper imports rose by 6% from the previous month, to 422,666 metric tons.

China has helped copper inventories at the London Metal Exchange move lower. Inventories at the LME fell to 294,275 metric tons Wednesday, down 2,075 metric tons from the previous session and 90,900 metric tons from a month ago, data from the exchange showed.
 
TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Foreclosure filings in May fell 6% from April, but rose 18% from May 2008, RealtyTrac reported on Thursday.

Foreclosure filings -- default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions -- were reported on nearly 321,500 properties in the month.

May was the third straight month in which filings exceeded 300,000.

One of every 398 U.S. housing units was the subject of a foreclosure filing in the month, the Irvine, Calif., consultant reported.


RealtyTrac reported fewer defaults and auctions but a 2% increase in bank repossessions.

- Nevada remained the state with the highest foreclosure rate, with 1 in 64 housing units the subject of a filing.
- California was second with 1 in every 144,
- and Florida was third with 1 in every 148.
 
Quote from wee man:

Where is Spanners?
More...

I cant beleive that sucker!
He shorted at what 58 or 59? and then when the market jumped to 65+ he claims it was a 'paper trade'. Then he says he would short oil at 68 if had any real money. ROFL
Spanner would you have been wiped out by now with 72+ oil?
With a lucky streak using sub $2000 account
 
Oil factors by one market analyst
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Oil had so much more to consider then just the supply report. Oil has been moving for a multitude of reasons and current supply and demand is just one of them.
- Oil is moving higher because it fears that the government is spending too much money.
- It is moving because the market is reacting to huge budget and trade deficits.
- It is moving because it is worried that rising yields and a lack of confidence in the dollar and our bonds may force the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than it wants to.
- Oil is acting as a hedge against inflation but it is also acting as a safe haven from those who want to abandon the dollar and US treasuries.
- The International Energy Agency raised their oil demand forecast for the first time in 10 months .

Yesterday this market had so much news that went to the heart of what is worrying and moving the price of oil.

We started off the balance of trade number US Trade Balance deficit that widened 2.2% in April to $29.163 billion from $28.532 billion in the last month. The dollar seemed to rally after this report putting some early pressure on oil. Yet with a looming supply report and an important 10 year action ahead oil bulls did not run too far from home.

As anticipation built up ahead of the ten year auction there was news that the China Russia and even Brazil said they would diversify out of US Treasuries and replace them with International Monetary Fund bonds. IMF bonds are good to buy as the IMF needs the money but it is another sign that our debtors especially the Chinese are looking to alternatives to US treasuries. China has already been buying oil as a hedge. China car sales soared over 30% last month and industrial production is rising. The Chinese demand story is just part of it.

The auction for the 10 the year drove US long-term interest rate to the highest level for the year. The 19 billion dollar auction of ten year notes saw 3.99 per cent. It seemed like the action was good and had the sense of a central bank intervention from the perhaps Europe in a response to the moves from the Chinese and the Russian trying to provide some liquidity. Bottom line is the auction is sending signals that the policies we are using are not going to work forever.

Especially when you consider our oaring record Federal budget deficit which according to Bloomberg news reported that is already approaching $1 trillion so far this fiscal year widened in May from a year earlier as the recession subtracted from revenue and the government spent more to rejuvenate the economy. The excess of spending over revenue climbed to a record for the month and compared with a gap of $165.9 billion a year earlier. Spending 5.8 percent to $306.9 billion and revenue fell 5.7 percent to $117.2 billion. For the fiscal year to date, the shortfall totaled a record $991.9 billion.
 
post market analysis

The complex continues to advance into fresh high territory for this year with
nearby crude prices exceeding the $73 mark. While the weakening in the dollar against the euro
and further strengthening in the DJII to multi month highs were certainly drivers behind today’s
oil strength, we will continue to highlight upward pull from the gasoline market. This bullish RBOB
leadership was manifested in an expansion in the July gas cracks to widest levels in 2 weeks and
we anticipate fresh highs for the past year during the coming week.

So, even if the dollar should
strengthen during the next few days, the gasoline market appears poised to lead crude values
higher, possibly to the $76 area in a matter of days.
 
T-bills govt. auction analysis

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bette...06167.html?sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Investors welcomed
- a drop in jobless claims,
- growth in retail sales
- and better-than-expected demand at a government debt auction.

But traders also seemed mindful of how far the market has come in its three-month rally.

The stock market has at times run low on fresh evidence of economic recovery that could push the rally further. The data out Thursday helped but weren't enough to keep the pace of buying strong through the end of trading.

The Labor Department reported that the number of newly laid-off Americans filing for jobless benefits fell last week by 24,000 to 601,000, better than economists forecast. However the number of unemployed continuing to file for claims rose to 6.8 million, the highest on records dating to 1967.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.5 percent in May, interrupting two months of decreases and marking the largest gain since January. Investors watch those numbers because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Doug Lockwood, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management, said the improvements in sales is a strong signal that the recession may be easing. Hope of a recovery has pushed the S&P 500 index up 39.7 percent from a 12-year low on March 9.

"There has been a lot of rallying and rebounding going on, but we have to continue to see improvements," Lockwood said.

Stocks rose to their highest levels of the day in afternoon trading when the Treasury Department said an auction for 30-year Treasury bonds attracted strong demand. That allowed investors to set aside some of their worries about higher interest rates. Stocks lost ground Wednesday following a relatively weak auction for 10-year notes.
Investors have been uneasy in the past two months about demand for government debt. If Washington has to raise rates to attract buyers, that could hurt the economy by boosting borrowing costs.

The market's losses Wednesday came after the government had to entice investors with a higher yield for 10-year notes than traders had anticipated. The yield on the 10-year note is closely linked to interest rates on home mortgages and other kinds of loans.

"The bond market is a potential risk to the stock market if yields continue to move higher," said Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors. "A further rise in yields threatens to choke off a recovery."
 
China's economic figures show further growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economic-figures-show-further-growth

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Chinese economic data released Friday reinforced the growing perception of an economy picking up steam, with retail sales and industrial production for the month of May coming in stronger than expected, while new bank lending continued at a torrid clip.

Friday's data capped a week of relatively robust news that dispelled some of the skepticism surrounding China's recovery, with the world's third-largest economy now on track to meet its growth targets this year, analysts said.

"Most likely industrial production growth will trend upward, supporting our 8% gross domestic product growth call for 2009," wrote Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu in a research note Friday.

In March, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also said the country would expand its economy 8% this year, although it's not clear that a formal growth target has been set.
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Asian markets gain on upbeat US, Chinese data

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asian...08285.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

BANGKOK (AP) -- Most Asian stock markets advanced Friday as improving economic data from the China and U.S. supported views that the worst of the global recession is passing.

Investors were heartened by U.S. reports showing a drop in jobless claims and higher retail sales in the world's largest economy -- a major Asian export market -- although gains on Wall Street were limited overnight on concerns the three-month rally in markets worldwide is nearing its limit.

China also got more positive news Friday when the government said retail sales and industrial output grew strongly in May amid heavy stimulus spending. That followed figures showing domestic investment in factories, real estate and other fixed assets soared 32.9 percent in the first five months of the year, even as exports and imports tumbled in May.

Beijing is trying to shield the Chinese economy from the plunge in demand from Western consumers by injecting money into the economy through heavy spending on construction projects -- and so far that seems to be working.

"China has had a lot of success in boosting domestic demand, and that's been driven by government spending," said Daniel McCormack, a strategist for Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. "What China is trying to do is spend money until external demand comes back."

Investment money was flowing into the region's markets because of perceptions that "Asia is structurally sound and that's where the growth is," he said.
 
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