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Oil Drops To 1-Month Low As Dollar Strengthens



NEW YORK -- Crude futures hit a one-month low Monday as investors worried about the economy fled oil for the dollar.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery traded $3.50, or 7%, lower at $46.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $2.94, or 5.5%, lower at $50.41 a barrel.

Oil futures had last traded below $47 a barrel on March 18, with resistance at that price representing a belief that the global economic downturn is close to reaching its bottom, and that oil demand will begin to recover. Traders have walked a thin line, however, rarely bidding prices much higher than $50 a barrel out of fear that further declines in consumption are possible.

On Monday, fear won out, with investors fleeing equities and commodities for the relative safety of the dollar. The euro was recently at $1.2982, with the dollar close to its highest point in a month.

"What's commonly called the risk-aversion trade is coming off, and so we've got markets all giving back some of their recent gains," said Addison Armstrong, an analyst with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn. "It's understandable, given how much they'd been up."

Equities are also suffering, helping to reinforce losses in the oil market, which has often looked to stock markets for guidance. European indexes are down, and U.S. equities are poised to open lower, after ending at a two-month high Friday.

Production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are still helping to prevent oil prices from falling back to the lows in the mid-$30s hit in February. Prices are stabilizing in anticipation of tighter supplies as OPEC members hold down output, Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) gave a similar outlook, predicting that high oil inventories would send prices down to $45 a barrel in the short term, preceding a gradual rise to $65 a barrel by the end of the year.

Front-month May reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded down 7.31 cents, or 4.9%, at $1.4196 a gallon. May heating oil traded 8.50 cents, or 6%, lower at $1.3375 a gallon.
 
yeah, we're at a 1month+ low now. but oil has stayed up while the euro/usd was dropping all this time! i think since it's decoupled a bit, oil has some wiggle room on a daily basis. we used to follow that pair quite closely
 
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