5% - 10% profit per day trading

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API DOE(EIA) numbers how they differ over period of time

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CRUDE GASOLINE DISTILLATES REFINERY RUNS
API DOE API DOE API DOE API DOE
[2009]

CHANGE 364.7 361.1 218.4 217.4 142.2 140.8 82.0 81.8
04/03 +7.0 +1.7 +2.9 +0.6 -2.3 -3.4 +0.2 +0.1

03/27 357.7 359.4 215.5 216.8 144.5 144.2 81.8 81.7
CHANGE +3.2 +2.8 -0.5 +2.2 +1.8 +0.3 -0.3 -0.3

03/20 354.5 356.6 216.0 214.6 142.7 143.9 82.1 82.0
CHANGE +4.6 +3.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -0.2 -0.1

03/13 349.9 353.3 216.8 215.7 144.3 145.5 82.3 82.1
CHANGE +4.7 +2.0 +0.4 +3.2 +0.4 +0.1 -1.4 -0.6

03/06 345.2 351.3 216.4 212.5 143.9 145.4 83.7 82.7
CHANGE -0.5 +0.7 +1.6 -3.0 -0.3 +2.1 +0.2 -0.4

02/27 345.7 350.6 214.8 215.5 144.2 143.3 83.5 83.1
CHANGE -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 +0.2 +1.6 +1.7 +1.6 +1.7

02/20 346.1 351.3 215.4 215.3 142.6 141.6 81.9 81.4
CHANGE +0.3 +0.7 -3.3 -3.4 +1.8 +0.8 -0.3 -0.9

02/13 345.8 350.6 218.7 218.7 140.8 140.8 82.2 82.3
CHANGE +1.6 - 0.2 +4.0 +1.1 -0.9 -0.8 +0.3 +0.7

02/06 344.2 350.8 214.7 217.6 141.7 141.6 81.9 81.6
CHANGE -2.0 + 4.7 -2.9 -2.6 +0.9 -1.0 -2.0 -1.9

01/30 346.2 346.1 217.6 220.2 140.8 142.6 83.9 83.5
CHANGE +8.1 +7.2 +2.2 +0.3 -0.2 -1.4 +1.5 +1.0

01/23 338.1 338.9 215.4 219.9 141.0 144.0 82.4 82.5
CHANGE +0.8 +6.2 +0.9 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -0 5 -0 8

01/16 337.3 332.7 214.5 220.0 141.4 145.0 82.9 83.3
CHANGE +9.8 +16.1 unch +6.5 +0.1 +0.8 -1.9 -1.9

01/09 327.5 316.6 214.5 213.5 141.3 144.2 84.8 85.2
CHANGE +0.7 +1.2 +4.3 +2.1 +0.4 +6.4 -1.2 +0.6

01/02 326.8 325.4 210.2 211.4 140.9 137.8 86.0 84.6
CHANGE +2.2 +6.7 +3.6 +3.3 +3.0 +1.8 +2.2 +2.1

12/26 324.6 318.7 206.6 208.1 137.9 136.0 83.8 82.5
CHANGE + 8.0 +0.5 +1.9 +0.8 +3.9 +0.7 -0.7 -2.2

12/19 316.6 318.2 204.7 207.3 134.0 135.3 84.5 84.7
CHANGE -4.2 -3.1 +1.7 +3.3 -0.7 +1.8 +0.3 +0.6
 
does the API number try to estimate what the EIA number is going to be? it seems they're usually quite off on the crude number, and are somewhat better at guessing gasoline stocks.
 
(STOCKS LISTED IN THOUSANDS OF BBL)

CURRENT WEEK YEAR AGO PREV WK
CHANGES 04/10/09 04/11/08 04/03/09
Ref % Operated - - 79.9 84.4 82.0
Ttl Mogas Stocks -613 218,442 215,444* 219,055*
Distillate Stocks 87 142,323 110,185* 142,236
Resid Fuel Stocks -2,269 35,944 37,402 38,213
** Crude Imports -811 8,433 9,334 9,244
Crude Oil Stocks 6,509 371,247 317,924 364,738
 
[Dow Jones]--
- US crude oil inventories rose 6.509 mln bbls - much higher than expected - as
refiners cut operations by 2.1 percentage points to 79.9% of capacity in the week ended Apr 10,
API data show.

- Gasoline stocks fell 613,000 bbls,
- while distillate stocks rose 87,000 bbls.


Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected crude stocks to rise by 2.1 mln bbls, with
forecasts ranging from a rise of 1.3 mln bbls to a gain of 3 mln bbls.

- Gasoline stocks were
expected to drop 500,000 bbls, with forecasts ranging from a rise of 2 mln bbls to a fall of
1.53 mln bbls. Distillate stocks (heating oil/diesel) were expected to drop by 700,000 bbls,
with forecasts ranging from a rise of 2 mln bbls to a fall of 2 mln bbls.

Refiners were
expected to lift operations relative to capacity by 0.3 percentage points, with expectations
ranging from a rise of 1 point to a fall of 0.5 point. EIA releases its weekly data at 1030 AM
EDT Wed.


Quote from InvestVision:

(STOCKS LISTED IN THOUSANDS OF BBL)

CURRENT WEEK YEAR AGO PREV WK
CHANGES 04/10/09 04/11/08 04/03/09
Ref % Operated - - 79.9 84.4 82.0
Ttl Mogas Stocks -613 218,442 215,444* 219,055*
Distillate Stocks 87 142,323 110,185* 142,236
Resid Fuel Stocks -2,269 35,944 37,402 38,213
** Crude Imports -811 8,433 9,334 9,244
Crude Oil Stocks 6,509 371,247 317,924 364,738
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please forgive me if this has been asked already, but this thread has grown exponentially and I've scanned it pretty well.

My question is are any of you using pivot points in your trading? If so do you use rolling or daily?

thx in advance.
 
Quote from Blubaru_555:

does the API number try to estimate what the EIA number is going to be? it seems they're usually quite off on the crude number, and are somewhat better at guessing gasoline stocks.
More...


no , API is energy industry group ( business group ) , where as EIA is US Govt DOE ( Department of Energy) branch

they use different methods to calculate these numbers , but Wall streets listens to EIA numbers only in the final say . But since API release numbers 20 hours before so it give some guidance

http://www.api.org/
 
closed at 49.0 , waiting for further shorts at 49.50 level

Quote from InvestVision:

I am short at 49.40 looking for 40 cents/lot
this API numbers are helping down push along with S&P down
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holding a short from 49.50 until tomorrow morning.

the api report says there's a build up of 6.51 mil barrels, which is almost a certain over estimation by the looks of the previous estimates up there. i'll try to cover right before the numbers come out, as we usually see a big dip leading up to the report.
 
yes API is over estimate , avg. EIA estimate is 2 million barrels .
But API big 6 million estimate is 2 nd week in row, that may indicate EIA as 3 to 4 million . If that is the case there will be big drop
it seems we may ses 48.50 some time before report , may be good idea to keep profit target limit orders at low levels if they get hit ..

Quote from Blubaru_555:

holding a short from 49.50 until tomorrow morning.

the api report says there's a build up of 6.51 mil barrels, which is almost a certain over estimation by the looks of the previous estimates up there. i'll try to cover right before the numbers come out, as we usually see a big dip leading up to the report.
More...
 
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