5% - 10% profit per day trading

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Nat. GAS Futures Hit Fresh 6-Year Low Ahead Of Expiration



HOUSTON -- Natural-gas futures fell to a fresh 6-year low Friday under pressure from robust storage levels and the expiration of the April futures contract.

Natural gas for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange recently traded 22.8 cents, or 5.78%, lower at $3.719 a million British thermal units. The contract sank to a low of $3.668/MMBtu -- the lowest since September 2002.

"The run-up earlier in the week had nothing to support it," said Larry Young, a trader with Infinity Futures in Chicago. "Now we've come back to reality and are looking to make new lows."

Natural gas prices have fallen about 73% since hitting an intraday peak last July of $13.694/MMBtu. The contract fell nearly 9% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a surprise build in natural gas storage.

Natural gas in U.S. storage for the week ended March 20 stood at 1.654 trillion cubic feet -- 29% higher than year-ago levels and 20% above the five-year average.

Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York, wrote in a note to clients that the Friday expiration of the April futures contract was adding time pressure to the trade and contributing to volatility.

"The buyers are just stepping back from the market, confident that prices are unlikely to snap back any time soon," Evans wrote.
 
crude drops on 3/29
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Back then, bloated stocks helped push crude prices down by nearly 20% in the ensuing five months. Now, despite a weaker global economy and much higher OPEC spare capacity, year-end crude futures are priced above $60 a barrel.

The balance between supply and demand doesn't justify current price levels, analysts say, but the market is looking beyond the huge 48-million-barrel year-on-year surplus in crude-oil inventories. It's taking it cues instead from the resurgent stock market and dollar weakness sparked by the Federal Reserve's move to buy up $300 billion in U.S. government debt, effectively expanding the money supply.

Oil prices, however, won't hold if demand stays weak.

The strength drifting into oil from other markets comes as U.S. refiners are cutting operations amid the weakest oil demand since mid-November, which is nearly 1.2 million barrels a day below a year ago.

U.S. crude-oil stocks are still growing, as imports rise, despite deep cutbacks in OPEC output. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has delivered on about 80% of its pledged output cuts of 4.2 million barrels a day since autumn. In cutting, OPEC increases idle output capacity that can weigh on prices.

Idle Capacity = Saudi Flow

By the end of the year, OPEC cuts and capacity additions will lift spare capacity to near eight million barrels a day, the most since April 2002, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase. That's equal to the current output of Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter. The figures assume the Saudis will reach their target capacity of 12.5 million barrels a day by year end.

U.S. refiners processed 14.135 million barrels a day of crude in the week ended March 20, unchanged from a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration.

While that may look strong compared with recent year-on-year declines of near 700,000 barrels a day, latest crude runs were still at a 12-year low for this time of year.

There are signs that weak refiner crude-oil demand will continue into April, despite EIA projections that inputs will rise by nearly 500,000 barrels a day next month.

France's Total SA (TOT) on Tuesday began shutting all key units at its 232,000-barrel-a-day Port Arthur, Texas, refinery. Industry reports said the current poor price environment could shutter the plant for a month.

All else being equal, that closure may cut refinery operations to below 81% of capacity for the first time on record for this time of year, from 82% now.

Refinery Damage Control

U.S. data show "exceptional damage-control" by refiners "in the face of large-scale demand destruction," said Antoine Halff, an analyst at Newedge Group. Deeper refinery cuts "look set to put renewed downward pressure on crude prices," Halff added.

The EIA data showed demand for fuels such as diesel and heating oil was at a seven-year low for this time of year, leaving stocks at the highest level on record for this time of year.

The lone bright spot was in implied gasoline demand, which was reported at a six-month high of 9.058 million barrels a day in the latest four weeks. Still, the figure was little changed from a year-earlier compared with adjusted or unadjusted data.

"With global demand in the doldrums and the world swimming in oil, the current price run in oil is an aberration," said Stephen Schork of the Schork Group. "We do not think it will last...in a logical world."

But, Schork wrote in a note to clients, in the "illogical world" of Wall Street "there is no telling how long it can last. There is no denying the bullish riptide, whether we are talking commodities or equities. People are in a buying mood. Why? Your guess is as good as theirs."
 
Aloha guys, what everyone did over the weekend?? :cool: :p


Ive looked at the news and the chart and i know ive said it many many times before,
but it still baffles me so much as so who the fuk are these people who would have taken so much risk in holding their long trades for nearly 3weeks now,
through 3weeks, through an entire week of a very choppy volatile 2weeks range,
just to then cash in their trades when the market is now nearly 300ticks off the highs of the move!! :eek: :confused: :confused:

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Oil/idUSTRE5210GO20090330
 

Attachments

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell below $51 a barrel on Monday, extending the previous the sessions' losses, pressured by
- a stronger U.S. dollar and
- a slump on global stock markets.

The U.S. government's rejection of turnaround plans for troubled automakers GM (GM.N) and Chrysler also dampened investors' sentiments and encouraged further sell off.


"The rejection of the turnaround plans has led to a pick-up in risk aversion, which explains why oil is falling further," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

European stock markets followed Asian shares lower on Monday, while U.S. stock futures pointed downwards after Obama administration's autos task force rejected turnaround plans for GM and Chrysler, raising the prospect of bankruptcies that could further undermine the already ailing U.S. economy. [nSP426975]

This renewed spirit of risk aversion strengthened the U.S. dollar, which rose against other major currencies on Monday, adding downward pressure on oil prices. <USD/>

Oil was up about 14 percent since the start of the month and is looking for its biggest monthly gains since October 2007, thanks to rallying stock markets and tightening oil supplies as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) curbs exports.

However, the global economy remains bogged down, leaving analysts skeptical over the longevity of oil's rally.
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U.S. oil for May delivery fell $1.75 to $50.63 a barrel pulling back from Thursday's four-month high.

London Brent crude fell $1.57 to $50.41.
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={F1D01BF9-1416-424F-82F4-7CFAD38BCBD2}

Data will come in play next week after some signs of improvement in the housing market raised hope for the economy.

- Key will be the S&P/Case Shiller index of home prices for January, due out Tuesday,
- followed by the Chicago manufacturing and consumer-confidence surveys for March.

- Wednesday will bring the national manufacturing survey for March from the Institute of Supply Management, along with pending home sales and a private-sector survey of employment.

- Friday will bring the ISM's service-sector survey and the all-important March employment report.
 
short 50.30
stop 25c


holding until we're under 50 again. even though i missed the move, i think shorting is the only way to go today. up 20c from an earlier short.
 
Its gone under 50??? :( :(


I not been trading today, but am about to do that assessmnet test that that hedgefund asked me to do as the 1t stage of recruitment.

I dont know anything about quantum mathematics or anything like that though,
was very content having a B grade at gcse maths. :)


So im very sure that im gna fail this test bigtime, but ive got nothing to lose in atleast doing it since they ahve invited me to.


goodluck trading guys
 
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