5% - 10% profit per day trading

[MohdSalleh]

Quote from spanish89:

yea, and not enjoying it at all.


I earnt 119% profit last month though,
even after missing the 6best trades id been trying to get (mostly dow longs at 6400).

So thats covered my food and bills money for the next 3weeks.


But i need to make 90% profit again over the next 4weeks though to provide me food and rent for the month after...,

So i really really cant afford to have to miss ot of 1weeks of trading even just because of some government department are lazy and incompetent at their job tasks!!

why dont you jsut borrow some money from your parents

 

[spanish89]

Quote from MohdSalleh:

why dont you jsut borrow some money from your parents

LOL


Parents dont just go around giving out money because its a tough job economy.

(Some people's do, but those are just lazy spoilt people who dont have put in the hours n work for their living)


Ive managed to survive on my own for many many many years now,
even back when i used to go to school i got my bedroom to live in,
but if i wanted food, clothes, alcohol travel or anything I had to work out a way of earning it myself.
I survived earning my living while at college,
i funded myself for the last 9months since i started working fulltime for a living...,

And so i can get through this and keep on going, hitting that 90% profit each month!

 

[sirgiyan]

Dear Spanish,

Oil is going down the tube this week. I have no doubts! Can reach 40 easily

PS
The more I read your posts the more respect I feel

 

[spanish89]

Quote from sirgiyan:

Dear Spanish,

Oil is going down the tube this week. I have no doubts! Can reach 40 easily

PS
The more I read your posts the more respect I feel

ALoha and thanks mate, i really do appreciate it..


I do think oil could go down to the 46.86 level...

However for anyone who isnt fully aware of what the Fed actually did when they annouced they are gna ''buy longterm treasuries';,
i explained it here in easier to understand langauge...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=157818

And the main implications of what this means for oil is that the Fed basically just ''devalued the dollar''.
(And are gna continue to actively devalue it)

And so this is simply creating an artficial valueing base for all stocks and commodities.


Since the reason oil fell 70%+, while inverse-dollar only fell 35%,
is because while the dollar is simply a 'single primary entity',
wheras oil is a 'secondary controlled directly by the primary ',
as oil is priced in dollars.

So thats while oil fell so much,
as it took a double whamming from both lack of demmand when it was over $120 (and then media scare mongering which the big platers used to drive oil down to make money),
but more falling simply because of the strong dollar.

(The ONLY real less demand was about 10% - 15%, and that was from big airlines when itw as over $120... ect)



However the fact that oil fell 1/3 AUTOMATICALLY meant tht oil's price in dollars fell by 1/3,
regardless of how strong or weake demmand may be.


And so now that dollar is weakening and going to get weaker, the price of oil will be 'automatically' forced higher.

And so what before was 'oil under 40',
will now be the equivalent level of lowness when we get oil at around $46, because of the dollar correlation.



So i would be cautious about targeting it going too low 'numerically' now,
as the fed has just created a whole new articifical pricing system just because it makes them look like they have now 'made things richer'. lol

 

[spanish89]

And if i had a 5figure/6figure capital account (£100,000 for example),
i would take 50k of that and put it into a seperate account and just buy oil if the mid 40s if we can get it back there,
stoploss at $16, target at around $300.

(If you have 50k you can do it at 2.5k profit per dollar movement, and so could do it at £25 per tick size to get your stoploss to $16)

And i would then just leave that trade on for a few years.
(Would move stoploss to bit above breakeven when oil next goes above $90)



As the next crisis we have, no matter what it is, will be bullish for oil and bad for the dollar.

Any sort of geopolitcial problem will cause oil scares, a decent size war will send oil soaring, any sort of terrorism anywhere in the world, hurricanes make oil go up, increase in world poulation size, science tryingt o expand its technology needs oil to do so... ect

And even when we get the next recession, it will be VERY VERY different to this one.
Since this time the world AGAIN turned to the USA to save it, and look what happend.


So the nextime we get recession the world, when usa puts its hand up and offers to stand on the podium and lead again,
the world will simply say 'fuk off' to usa! lol
And instead will go direct to china and start worsphipping them.
Making the usa dollar worth nothing as no-one will have any interest in usa, and will instead want more currcny from a stable and strong country like china.

But more importantly individual people will start alot more hoarding of things like food and petrol, and the higher the price goes then the more people will buy it with teh midset 'i gan get it before it goes higher'.


Since this time the recession was very very organised, friendly, and polite.
Didnt get any fighting and violence.
And so instead of people fighting in the streets/stockmarket for the commodities when tehy became so cheap, everyone instead just ignored it.

But nextime the geopolitical atmosphere in relation to oil will be VERY VERY different,
as people will get their heads out of the clouds and stop pretending that oil isnt running out,
and then the fear and greed will come!


So next crisis while the indicies may collapse again, commodities (especially oil and corn/wheat/sugar) will just keep rocketing higher and higher as people will want to just get as much as they can for themselves so that they can survive the crisis, no matter what happens to the rest of society.


(In about 15 - 20years oil will no longer be tradeable on the stockmarket though as the government will have control of whatever little bits the OPECs give out,
and so our governments will ration it out).



But if you have a 6figure capital account, all you have to do is use 50k of that in a oil long now at £25 per tick,
and in a few years time you will very likely be a millionaire.

 

[spanish89]

Btw does anyone know any sort of ETF that i can use to 'ultra short' airlines??


Since all the analysts out there have once again been extremely foolish idiots horseing around all winter saying that ''oil price would rise because of the cold''!
(I really want to know how such a bunch of thickos ever manage to land such cushy jobs)

Since i while i do know that heating oil does have a tiny impact on oil sentiment,
when the fuk was the lastime you saw some ''get a pot oil oil and then heat it up inside their house just because they feel cold''??!! :eek: LOL



I am instead much more interested in where the real 'mass usage' of oil is done,
which is by large commercial and industrial airlines!

And the busiest time for them is the summer, not winter.
Since no-one wants to go on a holiday in the winter anymore as you spend it with families, and especially in recession you dont go on nice winter holiday just to 'pay to be cold somewhere else'.


And i remember back last year from April t July about how so soo many airlines were crashing all around as oil broke above the $120 mark.
And so this summer when due to dollar weakness oil is nice and high again so putting lots of pressure on airlines net profit sheets,
combined with the substantial decline in families all around the world who will skip the fmaily holiday this summer and instead save their money for safety and just do a local holiday at home,
that will hit the airlines revenues hard, and the profit they do make will also have to be lower than normal to try enticing customers with low cost flights.

So the airlines will get totally slaughters this summer!!



However the wold seems to be totally overlooking them....

Since all the focus has been on the consumer industry of cars, and lack of demmand for buying new cars.

And airlines seem to have been allowed to float back alot higher because of teh low oil price is seen as good for them.



So that makes them extremely juicy and easy for shorting the shit out off ASAP before they start falling in price/oing bankrupt.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from rock34748:

I've been a cop for 23 years and never thought about trading until I pulled my investments from passive accounts in July 2008. Never thought myself capable of viewing money as ticks and numbers etc...

:eek:

What divison are you in mate??


As im trying to get in the police force for a career,
so i can get out of trading for a living!
(Since i serously seriously hate having to do it)

 

[Yrutman]

First off oil had no business being that high, and it was proven that it was just speculating. when goldman gave their long term target of $200.00 at 140.00 citing demand and a miriad of other bullshit such as chin etc, it suddenly imploded down to these levels. What did Goldman then do? Issue a report that the recession now caused this. It has already been argued time and time again when oil hit $140.00 plus that supply was not an issue, rather it is refining capacity. Now answer me this since you like to regurgitate CNBC nonsense what we are running out of oil BS. How is it that inventories are even higher now than they were when oil was trading at $20.00 a barrel? Answer is simple, hedge funds wanted to run it up and make money so they needed to justify it that is why all the talking heads were only able to have 20/20 vision in hindsight. So lets give the world is running out of oil theory a rest. As we have just as much supply as we did 20 years ago. The last statement is fact, and do your research yourself. The difference is we are now speculating now. There is enough oil for thousands of years, problem is oil companies and the United States included do not want to spend more money to build refinaries. If they did we would not even need the arabs anymore. There is plenty of oil untouched in Alaska, Mexico, and Canada for that matter. I can go on for hours on the subject but after reading your last post of your 300.00 a barrel theory I had to step in and set the record straight.

 

[spanish89]

Aloha mate.

1stly i dont really look much into the bigger picture of the number of barrels that the usa have been holding in storage each week,
so i cant answer in too much detail about the build in the weekly inventory numbers over the last few months.

However i should just say that while yes we have been having builds weekly, they have been of just a few million barrels per week maximum,
during a recession when all businesses have been looking to cut down on all costs and so not been expanding and requring more oil.
Combined with the fact that it was the winter and so the main oil users (airlines) had no real need to be buying much oil each week as they were running very low on business.


And in relation to hedgefunds and speculators being the ''only'' reason that the oil price went so high...
Yes the price of oil on the open market 'has' to be set by which direction the men with the money are betting it to go, since its that betting that moves the price.
So ofcourse it was due to them clicking 'buy' on their trading platforms that the price rose, since that is the only way the market price can physically move.

However the reason that everyone was buying oil instead of short-selling oil wasnt just 1 huge huge global conspiracy that has been going on for decades in the trading industry ever since oil made tradeable,
and has just been there floating along for the entire century with 1 group of traders all agreed to scam teh world and so only buying and getting rich/other group short-selling and going bankrupt... lol


It went up for so so sooo long because people saw from an early time that 'oil will run out'.

Its not an ''idea'' or a ''point of view''', its just simple facts / maths.

*Since if you have a barrel of water with 100litres in it, and everyday you take out and drink 1litre of that water.

Even if you just dont everyday look into the barrel or think about how much is left in it,
1day you will go to that barrel to try getting your glass of water and find that your cup is scraping along the bottom.
Week after that you can go to the barrel with your glass, and there wont be any water left, and so you will die of thirst.




You seem to have a very big view of the world though mate,
and everyone is entitled to have their own view of everything as long as it doesnt hurt anyone else..


But while you have a view of the world as this very big place, with lots of pockets oil that is easy to get to and with more and more regularly being discovered, and with arabic countries that are gna keep giving that oil to countries they hate.

I personally have a view of the world as a very very small place.
And as a place where theres only 'X' number of oil lakes with 'Y' amount of oil in them,
and 'Z' amount of that oil being used each day with everyone wanting to get as many of those 'Ys' as possible before theres none left to go around.



Im not here to have an 'arguement' with you or anyone else about this though mate..

Since only time will tell which of our views does turn out to be correct of what there is in the world.

 

[spanish89]

Oil is looking very weak,
since dow is up over 200points, dollar is 100+ pips weaker already,
yet oil is barley up 50ticks. (1%)


The level i want to see (maybe sell) is 54.86, put chart to show why.


Im gna have alot of trouble trading today though as ive got food poisoning from the burger i ate lastnight.
(ive been awake all night so basically the last meal i ate 8hours ago)


Its taken me 2 attempts to write this post alone as i had to run to the bathroom to be sick,
and so its not looking to be a very warm plesant day for me.


Im gna have to take my laptop into the bathroom and trade from there all day,
although i also need to go to the post office which im not sure how im gna manage if my stochmach stays like this.



What levels is everyone else looking for today though??