OPEC Will Consider âAll Optionsâ as Oil Demand Extends Slide
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGCfRErTSUw0&refer=home
In a Bloomberg survey,
- 31 of 41 analysts said OPEC will limit output for the fourth time next week.
- Of those, 13 expect a reduction of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day,
- 12 say 1 million barrels and two estimated 1.5 million.
- The rest declined to provide an estimate.
- Ten of the 41 analysts anticipated no change.
The analysts were surveyed on March 3 and March 4.
Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich, said a compromise could be a relatively small cut of 500,000 barrels a day, âotherwise, there will be a negative market reaction.â
âWe have to insist on higher compliance of the cuts, which we believe has been good, but needs to be completed,â Rafael Ramirez said in an interview as he arrived for the March 15 meeting. âWe have to look at the fundamentals of the market and the macro economic situation. It is very complicated.â
âThere is a risk of over-tightening and the last thing the global economy needs is a spike in oil prices,â Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity research at Merrill Lynch & Co., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. âOPEC should not think about cutting more until they meet their quotas.â
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Abdullah al-Sabah said âall options are on the tableâ at the meeting.
âWe donât want to hurt the international economy, but at the same we donât wonât to hurt ourselves,â he said in an interview at Vienna airport today. âIt is a very difficult equation. It is still undecided.â
Quote from InvestVision:
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At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents oil consumers, warned that a further cut in output would accelerate the global economic crisis.
"Another cut risks being a step too far," in view of the "catastrophic economic news over the past few months," chief IEA analyst David Fyfe warned in comments to AFP.
OPEC's recent production cutbacks, taking 4.2 million barrels out of the market every day, were likely to tighten the oil market, Fyfe said.
And that "would risk a surge in prices: the last thing the economy needs at present."
Oil producers do not agree, however. And in its latest monthly report, OPEC said that the worldwide recession was already leading to a slump in demand and that prices were therefore likely to continue to slide.
"With continued economic deterioration and demand erosion as well as the impending low demand season, there is likelihood of renewed pressure on prices," the cartel said Friday.
"The world economy is in a dreadful situation with GDP (gross domestic product) sliding into the red for the entire year of 2009. Consequently, world oil demand is slipping steeply to a record low year-on-year."