5% - 10% profit per day trading

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at 12 noon Newyork time oil was at 40 , only last 1 hour of market it spiked to 40.90 just due to Week-end premium ( oil week end premium in troubled times middleeast conflict ), otherwise oil true range as of Friday Newyork market close is around 40 ..

I believe that 40 is the base line new as nothing changed and few thing improved ( see above post) supporting oil SELL side ...
 
Quote from InvestVision:

All these 4 fundamental factors are supporting sell side market for Crude OIL ..
Appreciate comments ....

1) Russia gas conflict settling ( almost)
2) middle east conflict near ending ..

3) strong US dollar against EURO

Euro Falls Versus Dollar, Yen on Speculation ECB Will Cut Rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZEgwPhy05W8&refer=home

“A large portion of the euro’s demise has been predicated on the view that the ECB is falling behind the curve,” said Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. “The market has priced in a 50 basis-point rate cut from the ECB.”


4) week markets next week
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={2131685F-79E2-4E4D-AC41-3EEAD5ADB051}

There's disappointment about the prospect of the recovery," said Ken Tower, market strategist at Quantitative Analysis Services. "Earnings are now more likely to disappoint, and across the board, [companies] are slashing estimates going forward."

The current market consensus is for the U.S. recession to bottom out sometime in the middle of this year -- but the latest signs from the labor market suggested to many that these forecasts might be too optimistic.

"I think that people are too optimistic about the recovery," Tower said. "A lot of bad news is already priced in but every time you get worse than expected news, the stock market will have to adjust."
More...

40.80 is good sell point if it reach this sunday night , if you can wait till newyork market open on monday you make $1 difference
 
The key levels you need to watch how reacts at are going to be-

39.26, 38.62, 38.26, 37.86 and 37.07.


I will start looking to buy if it gets to but consolidates at 38.26, we break below that even and anything in the 37s i will be very much inlicned to snap up as a buy for the pullback.


Selling wise i would need 43.86 t 44.26 still before id consider selling.
 
While the news and dolalr strength/weakness does influence oil,
i would strongly advise not putting to much directional bias on the news for the start of this week anways as there is no news... lol

(The next big news will be the run-up to opec's next meeting when people start to speculate that they could cut again and so price wll rise in advance)



So untill wednesday when we get inventory number these next 2days im just going to focus on getting back to being patient during the day as i let the market over stretch itself, and then attacking it extremely hard and fast when its at is weakest. :)

Lots of easy money for extremely little actual risk. :cool:



(The reason i am advising that selling before the high 43s would be risky is that even though yes we did have big inventory number last week, that was because of the russian stuff that refiners builtup more in the reserves,
that took oil down form $50s to under $40s in 2days.

While it may not sound much to have oil going down in what was a down trending market since summer, and since we have been below 40 before it doesnt sound that low now...,

That crash of 20% in 2days has still happened, and so there will be a pullback coming.
*The futher this thing stretches just like a rubber band the harder it will snap back when it does.
:cool:
 
Crude loves squeezing shorts if I were to sell I would sell somewhere in 43s and 44s as Spanish suggested below. I would not be suprised to see 42s over night. just on the sidelines right now as I missed the move earlier as I was going to buy long at around 40.26 and sell in the 70s. Missed that so Ill watch but shooting for below 40 over night I would bet the percentages on that is lower for the over night session.
 
1) Strong dollar case

The euro was off its early Asian lows, recently at $1.3421 from $1.3381, though the European Central Bank was expected to cut interest rates at its meeting later in the week.

Recent gains in the euro would retrace as worsening economic data would lead the ECB to cut rates, eroding the single currency's rate and yield differentials, said strategists at BNP Paribas, who looked for the central bank to cut by half a percentage point.

"We should not fall into the trap of expecting a higher euro/dollar on the back of rallying share prices as we see the correlation between equities and the euro reversing this year as the anticipated capital market rebound becomes U.S.-centric."

The U.S. dollar was broadly higher against Asian currencies, hitting a one-month peak against the Malaysian ringgit.
 
Quote from InvestVision:

40.80 is good sell point if it reach this sunday night , if you can wait till newyork market open on monday you make $1 difference
More...

closed short at 40.30 , good 40 points .. waiting for 40.75 range for next short
 
this FEB09 CRUDE oil contract ( Expiring on JAN 20 ) will PEAK the day before the US oil stock piles report ( report out is JAN 14 or 15 I am not sure ). The peak price may be < $43
Here are my analysis.

Last month contract closed at 33.5 , from economy ( jobs , factory orders etc.. ) did not improve anything from that time. The main factor that brought crude up middle east is settling .

let us assume FEB09 crude oil contract will close around 38 at contract close time JAN 20 .

- last 2 days Jan 19 , 20 th it will drop $1.5/day total $3, that gives "JAN 16 th friday " close price as 38 + 3 = 41

( big traders roll contract to next month that is MARCH ).

- my assumption is after US gov. stock piles report , crude may not change much .

- so that gives the PEAK for this contract will happen mid day ( the day before ) US gov. stock piles report.
 
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