I am trying the long one more time.
Long @ 41.18
exit @ 41.68
stop @ 40.68
if this loses, I am stopping for the day
Long @ 41.18
exit @ 41.68
stop @ 40.68
if this loses, I am stopping for the day
5% - 10% profit per day trading
- Thread starter spanish89
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Quote from spanish89:
Aloha, i stopped my trading back on thursday till aabout the 4th of january...
Since cos the holiday now there will be barley any movement and so itd just piss me off trying to make money from it, especially with my spread.
spanish, have you checked out cmcmarkets? i think their spread is lower than ETX and also their margin money structure is different
Try - http://www.tradefair.com/ They will even give you £75 after you make 2 trades and the platform gives rapid fills with low spreads.
Just got stopped out again. That second trade was stupid, I don't know why I went long.
Quote from spanish89:
It was quite easy to know it was extremely likely to go down.. (as i said last week when tryin to se ethe logic behind the spreads difference),
why on earth would people be willing to sell oil as low as $34 on friday,
go off for thee weekend,
come back, and not be prepared to sell it for less than $40 now, just 2days later! :eek:
And why on earth would people be willing to pay $40s now, when the could of just been smart and stockedup on friday if they were prepared to pay more for it.
i came to the same conclusion, though differently.
if oil is spot prices are between 39-41 i have no idea why anyone would buy a february future at 43 odd and hold it or go long on it. there is nothing in the macroeconomic environment that will make oil prices rise beyond 43 or so.unless there is an overnight war in iran or some such oil sensitive place.
futures are a way of insuring against price rises , but i certainly cant see oil prices rising in the short to medium term. in fact i would like to think that oil will fall to the $25 as has been debated in the media.
i am not into fundamentals but my logic suited my shorting oil.
It might help you thought process if you look up Contango and backwardization.
Believe it or not these are real terms used in the futures market.
In addition to all the other financial expection and socieconomic expection reasons that move oil, oil costs money to store, which is why the out months usually have higher costs than the front month.
Right now the , unlike back in the summer when it was empty, storage facilities at Cushing Ok which is the delivery point for NYMEX is full, so if you physically buy oil you had better have a place to cart it off and store it.
Believe it or not these are real terms used in the futures market.
In addition to all the other financial expection and socieconomic expection reasons that move oil, oil costs money to store, which is why the out months usually have higher costs than the front month.
Right now the , unlike back in the summer when it was empty, storage facilities at Cushing Ok which is the delivery point for NYMEX is full, so if you physically buy oil you had better have a place to cart it off and store it.
Hope no one has been caught going long.
This is on its way to $35. May see that tomorrow but otherwise should definetly see it Wednesday.
I will be looking to try and buy now just ahead of $32 and see how it reacts and whether we will get a bounce back to test $40 from below.
I think before the Feb contract expires we will dip below $30, with the next level beneath that being $27.66 and $24.56 below that which SHOULD be the lowest we will see before the next multi-year rally begins
One thing I can say with a degree of certainty is that we will not see oil in the mid forties again for a few weeks and more like months unless something extreme happens in the Middle East.
i dont think oil is yet in a backwardation situation. spot price for nymex is 39 and cushing wti spot is 31.
secondly on lack of cushing storage space, i think thats the symptom and not the cause. the cause being a lack of global demand.
if the world was predicted to come to an end in 10 years time, then wouldnt backwardation occur in oil or consumable commodities?
am a newbie here so please excuse ignorance.
Quote from Trader_Dante:
Hope no one has been caught going long.
This is on its way to $35. May see that tomorrow but otherwise should definetly see it Wednesday.
I will be looking to try and buy now just ahead of $32 and see how it reacts and whether we will get a bounce back to test $40 from below.
I think before the Feb contract expires we will dip below $30, with the next level beneath that being $27.66 and $24.56 below that which SHOULD be the lowest we will see before the next multi-year rally begins
One thing I can say with a degree of certainty is that we will not see oil in the mid forties again for a few weeks and more like months unless something extreme happens in the Middle East.
Good call.
I had two bad long trades today and ended up -$1000. I did my analysis last night and came in the market this morning with a long bias, which was stupid, because the support line at 42.6 was broken this morning. That should have been a red flag for me, but I ignored it.
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