5% - 10% profit per day trading

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Quote from usman88:

even before the day opened alot of analysts and research reports indicated short covering and movement to 37+

If we look at the volume, its not even close to what took us to $33 which means there is a potential for upside THAT IS if people wanna cover their shorts.

Usually in the weekends we get huge spikes in the last half hour. Sometimes even in the last minute.

On the other hand I am praying that it goes up so that others who were long can get out safely.

Btw spanish I thought you blew your account? Coz i remember you saying you had around $3500 in your account?
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ALoha mate i have £3,600 in there, dropped quite alot as did a £6 per tick trade,
but kept enough stilll.

And ive managed to raise £1,000 more from various sources..


So from next week gna go back to just trading at £1 n £2 per tick again and buildup slowly.



As theres no rush. :)
 
Quote from usman88:

Can you explain the rationale please?
Because right now there are net short positions in the march contract which have to be covered i.e. rate for march contract is expected to go/stay up.

After covering shorts in March contract traders would obviously short the April contract. What we end up with here is

1)March contract going up/staying the same
2)April contract going down

Moreover contango is expected to get narrower as OPEC supply cut becomes more visible. (Your trade implies contago widening from the current $6 mark)

And then, dont you think rather than shorting and buying different contracts it would be simple and more profitable just trading the spread with much less margin?
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current contago is $4.25 , that way to low for 4 more days left contract , it is not $6 as you mentioned above.
if you look at last 2 months contracts at expiry contago is $7-$9 , so current $4.25 must has to increase so supporting MAR short/APRIL long 37.75/42.00 ( price at this time )
 
Quote from InvestVision:

current contago is $4.25 , that way to low for 4 more days left contract , it is not $6 as you mentioned above.
if you look at last 2 months contracts at expiry contago is $7-$9 , so current $4.25 must has to increase so supporting MAR short/APRIL long 37.75/42.00 ( price at this time )
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nice observation and thanks for correcting me but

1)In the last 2 expirations we did not had this huge OPEC cut(please refer to demand projections and current OPEC supplies. There isnt much difference). Everyone was saying that effect of cut would be seen at the end of jan and start of feb. I believe we are seeing it now

2)Why not trade the spread alone atmuch reduced margin?

3)What do you have to say regarding March short covering and consequent shifting of short positions(or simply put traders shorting April) in to April?
 
Quote from usman88:

Crack spread is used mainly for hedging and I dont think traders like us can find an edge in it due to lack of knowledge and understanding.

Btw calender spreads and inner market spreads are the same thing
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Its the other way around. Spread are much simpler and safer than taking a position outright. Actually, spreads require the least amount of work and analysis, because you are simply betting on the correlation of the two commodities instead of forecasting the direction. And correlations tend to have a strong seasonal effect, and therefore much easier to anticipate.
 
Can i ask how much capital you have in total leemeeplay?? :eek: :confused:

Its just cos you seem to have alot, as even after all the shit this month you seem to have a few thousand dollars still... :)



And 2ndly, more importantly, and this question if for everyone on here and everyone on t2w who tries to talk like they are trading masters....

What mental pyschology do traders have in their head to allow themself to have a trade that gone into $2s, paused and markets moving sideways and looking very choppy like it could easily rise up (is chopping up n down in a 50ticks range so you would have risk losing 50ticks even if you tighten your stoploss, and that could easily endup you getting stopped out at the top of the range and then market crashing in what was your favour),

but what pyschology do they get in their head at that time to risk losing those 50ticks of their money instead of cashing in to lock in their profit,
just based on they hoping market will move even further, after already falling 4%+??
 
Quote from usman88:

nice observation and thanks for correcting me but

1)In the last 2 expirations we did not had this huge OPEC cut(please refer to demand projections and current OPEC supplies. There isnt much difference). Everyone was saying that effect of cut would be seen at the end of jan and start of feb. I believe we are seeing it now

2)Why not trade the spread alone atmuch reduced margin?

3)What do you have to say regarding March short covering and consequent shifting of short positions(or simply put traders shorting April) in to April?
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1) yes OPEC cut effect is there that is counter weighting the bad economic outlook

2) but still it is two trades, is there any broker offering it as signle trade pls. let me know

3) i am not too sure of MARch short traders automatically rollling to APRIL short right away. these big traders are smart they wait for price hike say like 52 for APRIL contract in next 1 to 2 week then they take short it is not they do automatic rollover ...
 
i also think this current contract price will fall as there wil be lack of buying interest in it now...,
since its expiring, after already having spiked 11% straight in 1day.
 
Quote from InvestVision:

1) yes OPEC cut effect is there that is counter weighting the bad economic outlook

2) but still it is two trades, is there any broker offering it as signle trade pls. let me know

3) i am not too sure of MARch short traders automatically rollling to APRIL short right away. these big traders are smart they wait for price hike say like 52 for APRIL contract in next 1 to 2 week then they take short it is not they do automatic rollover ...
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1)I am talking about demand projections morgan stanely put up(which are even -0.5mn barrels LESS compared to latest IMF projections in which they reduced demand by -1.0mn barrels). According to MS all OPEC needs to do more is cut -1.0mn barrels to achieve equilibrium (ill post the research report here tomorrow).

Even if we forget the research reports and all the stuff....Cuts are giving their effect now while demand destruction will reach its max later down the road. Not now and major emerging economies are still growing albeit at a slower rate.

2)Many. Lemmeplay just mentioned IB(for calender/intramarket spreads) and I know one. MFGlobal

3)Partially Agreed
 
Quote from spanish89:

Can i ask how much capital you have in total leemeeplay?? :eek: :confused:

Its just cos you seem to have alot, as even after all the shit this month you seem to have a few thousand dollars still... :)
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My capital is around 50K, but I only use around 10K of it for day trading.
 
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