4X Made Hard

Quote from TGM:

What data feed are you using to feed excel? It is ashame we cant hook up Oanda to and outside charting source or excel.
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I'm not really using an actual live data feed like a DDE or anything. I have macros setup to request historic data from CMS Visual Trader via their API. Techincally, I can update the data every second if I wanted or even automate the process with a timing macro. But Excel isn't the best platform for that and the thing would bog down. It's pretty heavy on the overhead the way it is. I do have live data going into the dealing rates screen, but I don't pay attention too much to that as I watch the rates on the Oanda and Interbank FX charts.

I have a friend who's done quite a bit of Oanda API programming. He's offered to hook up with the live data for a monthly fee. Right now, I really don't see the need. but should I decide to get out of Excel and into something live, it's an option worth considering.
 
Quote from TGM:

I have used keltners since I first started trading (10years ago). It is rare to find people that use them. Most guys looked at me like I was nuts in Chicago years back when I said I use keltners! So out of curiosity how do you use them? To decide trend? I use exponential keltners mostly. How bout you?
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I use ketlners several different ways.

1. To define trend visually.
2. To measure how strong or how over bought / sold a market may be.
3. To convergence trade in consolidation from band to band.

They are great and I agree with you, most traders are mising the boat.
 
Quote from Samson77:

I use ketlners several different ways.

1. To define trend visually.
2. To measure how strong or how over bought / sold a market may be.
3. To convergence trade in consolidation from band to band.

They are great and I agree with you, most traders are mising the boat.
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Thanks for the reply. I have been surprised that more literature has not been published on them. Most indicators adjust. Keltners give a great feel because the ATR's are constant. No adjusting for vol like bollingers.

Cheers.
 
Quote from JR97:

I'm not really using an actual live data feed like a DDE or anything. I have macros setup to request historic data from CMS Visual Trader via their API. Techincally, I can update the data every second if I wanted or even automate the process with a timing macro. But Excel isn't the best platform for that and the thing would bog down. It's pretty heavy on the overhead the way it is. I do have live data going into the dealing rates screen, but I don't pay attention too much to that as I watch the rates on the Oanda and Interbank FX charts.

I have a friend who's done quite a bit of Oanda API programming. He's offered to hook up with the live data for a monthly fee. Right now, I really don't see the need. but should I decide to get out of Excel and into something live, it's an option worth considering.
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Good for you. Some day you may have to do it up in C++ complete with daily charts and let it fly. When TT comes out with Hotspot that may be an option for you. You have a good plan stick with it. What is the Oanda API costing these days? Does it read historical data as well as Realtime data??
 
GBPUSD
Woke up to this and went long with a small initial position:

http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/3996/gbp82900017zn.gif

Showered took care of the kid and got to the office and saw this:

http://img280.imageshack.us/img280/5989/ptsgbp829014ww.gif

Stopped out for 30 pips or so plus another 30 or so on the EURUSD.


Price rejected at the mean in a big way and still dropping. Run away price, so I'm not going to play it short because I believe I've missed the retrace. Overall, the system still shows long, so I'll wait for a long setup.

When I'm at the charts, I usually watch for median line rejection. That is a typical pattern failure that can still be profitable if I'm around to see it.
 
Logged on and saw a potential short term 20-30 pip setup on the GBP and EUR.

Long EURUSD at 1.2230
Double bottom on the smaller frames. Price attempting to break away from the mean on the 1H. Price turning up on the 4H. Target is 1.2260.

http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_EUR_8-29_1.gif
http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_EUR_8-29_2.gif

Long GBPUSD at 1.7960
Breaking out of consolidation?

http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_GBP_8-29_1.gif
http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_GBP_8-29_2.gif
 
Those short term trades ended up as small losses for about -15 each.

I'm not in tune. I"m trying to anticipate market turns and going against the channel direction. I've also been too biased with my market direction opinion and not going in with an open mind. The system showed short all the way since yesterday and I"ve been fighting it being stubborn with my closed mind.

Last night's trades ended up EURSD - 30 GBP -50 but with larger initial positions than I normally start with violating my MM plan. Oanda account is back to b/e and mini-account is now below b/e by about $150 after getting up over $170. That's some pretty healthy drawdown.

GBP where I went long at the bottom of a trendline anticipating a reversal:

http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/8976/gbp830021fi.gif

Notice that everything there said go short even though price was at the bottom of some serious support. I also got my wave wolfe count wrong. In hindsight it was a careless mistake. My direction bias had me looking for what I wanted to see.

http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/8900/gbp830011ej.gif

Should have been this: http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/1315/gbp830046fy.gif

I haven't been analyzing my losses like I used to, so now is a good time. I think it comes down to two things. 1) I was getting cocky. 2) My personal life is a train wreck and the markets are the last place I should be... especially with a cocky attitute. On the bright side, the losses have brought me back to earth and hopefully knocked some sense into me. The losses still show that the system is right. I don't think my confidence has been shaken, but the cocky attitute has got to go.
 
9-1-05

EURUSD Long at 1.2335
GBPUSD Long at 1.8020

I set my alarm for early in the AM and looked at my laptop metatrader and was in profit. Went to adjust the trailing stops and accidently closed out both positions. Damn. I'm still getting used to Metatrader. I don't like how right click and left click on transaction bring up different windows. Oh well.. live and learn. +84 pips between the two trades.

Screenshots coming later of what I was looking at. The system was dead on.

I've been sponsored to trade the InterbankFX contest with live money, so I won't be trading my regular Oanda account this month and will be using a different MM style geared more towards contest type trading vs safe and sound account preservation trading.
 
Major moves on the EUR and how the system picked it up.

Here is a shot of 9-1 and the long term setup:
http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-1_0002.bmp

The monthly is in an up channel and had previously been in green status, but the past week had been showing some retrace. The weekly is at the +1 deviation.. a major resistence area and also a down channel. Typically, the top of down channel is an area to look short if it's in agreement with other time frames. However, the weekly is under a lot of pressure to pivot up. Check out the Daily.. relatively flat and breaking away from the mean. Channels don't stay flat for long and the balance is shifting. Check out the 4H. Similar story, but showing signs of reversal and heading back down? Not necessarily because like a see-saw... balance is hard to maintain. The channel will either pivot up or down, but rarely stay flat for long periods of time (relative to the time frame of course).


Let's now look to the smaller time frames to see what is going on: http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-1_0001.bmp

We've already discussed the Daily, and 4H, so let's look at the 1H.. which is typically my trigger and confirmation frame. It is in up channel and price traversing the channel. As I've said many many times before, price can traverse the channel by being flat. When it reaches the other side, I expect action. In this case, I'm expecting a move to the long side based on the Daily chart breaking away from the mean. Check out the 15M... very flat and in a small range. Flat and small range is like a pressure cooker. When it blows, it blows big.

And here is the aftermath: http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/sample_5.gif

Notice that the 4H channel is now pivoting up. There is probably enough momentum to push the Daily channel up. If that happens, the S/R lines will also pivot up giving new ranges/targets.


Now on to 9-2: http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-2_01.gif

Retrace in order? Not looking like it. Every channel but the Daily are at the bottom and breaking upwards. Daily has broken most recent high, so here we go again on a ride up.

A few hours later: http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-2_011.gif
http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-2_012.gif
http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-2_013.gif

I didn't get back to the PC to make any screenshots until late friday, but you can clearly see the aftermath. The 4H has been in energyzer bunny mode but for the past 3 days... just keeps going and going: http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-2_014.gif

The long term charts show that price is making it's way to the monthly mean of 1.2700.. which is also the weekly +2 and the 4H +1. Strong confluence: http://www.precisetraders.com/forex/PTS_9-2_015.gif

Suffice it to say, I only made 100 pips combined out of all of that in one account and got my a$$ handed to me in another trying to scalp in a trading contest using the smaller time frames and trying to jump the gun. The system is good when I follow it and don't over leverage/over trade. Sometimes it takes a bit of a smackdown to be reminded of that.
 
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