401(k) balances skyrocket in the decade since the market bottom

[dozu888]

That is why next downturn will be the most painful one in history, that is if it happens of course. Some people do no say if but when.

It has been instilled into our DNA that in the long run stocks go up, no one currently envisioning a situation where market could stand still for 10-20 years. Pure fantasy at this point.

anything is possible - but providing a possible scenario might be more helpful for people to envision, instead of blindly trying to imagine a 10-20 year stand still.

yes happened to japan, but it's not the same... not the dominating economy in the world, not with the reserve currency.

from the stand point of everyone's motive... people have too much to lose for a long stand still... you are basically talking about deflation, which is why the Fed has a 2% inflation target, a safety margin to prevent that... and so far you can't say they are doing a bad job.

Right now we seem to be in a goldilock zone.. high growth, low inflation, full employment.. monetary, fiscal policies are all tail winds.. plus the cheap labor from globalization and massive productivity gains from technology....

plus from the sentiment point of view, the public participation in the market is still low compared to historical average.

so at this point there is more reason to be glass half full than otherwise.

 

[Cuddles]

point 1 - the best thing he did was probably nothing.. tits side up is mostly the Fed's easy money.. but he put in nothing but head winds.. environmental regulations, obamacare... name 1 thing he did that is actually PRO-business?

point 2 - I would never ask 'scholars' and 'professors' with zero executive experience to run even a company.. and he had to muddle thru 8 years, multiple disasters in foreign policies.

I'll take the scholar with the historic economic recovery over the snake oil salesman that asks us "to trust him, but don't look" and pressures the fed to keep the presses going.

 

[RedDuke]

anything is possible - but providing a possible scenario might be more helpful for people to envision, instead of blindly trying to imagine a 10-20 year stand still.

yes happened to japan, but it's not the same... not the dominating economy in the world, not with the reserve currency.

from the stand point of everyone's motive... people have too much to lose for a long stand still... you are basically talking about deflation, which is why the Fed has a 2% inflation target, a safety margin to prevent that... and so far you can't say they are doing a bad job.

Right now we seem to be in a goldilock zone.. high growth, low inflation, full employment.. monetary, fiscal policies are all tail winds.. plus the cheap labor from globalization and massive productivity gains from technology....

plus from the sentiment point of view, the public participation in the market is still low compared to historical average.

so at this point there is more reason to be glass half full than otherwise.

Agree with above, but economically things are truly too good to be true now, and that's what worries be a bit. Another one, is massive piles of debt everywhere. We shell see how next few years play out.

 

[dozu888]

I'll take the scholar with the historic economic recovery over the snake oil salesman that asks us "to trust him, but don't look" and pressures the fed to keep the presses going.

couple of points -

1. historical recovery - yes, but the question is how much credit is due.. again, name 1 thing he did that was a tail wind... other than doing nothing and let the Fed and the Wall Street guys do their thing... this is where the left MSM keeps throwing the muddy water to confuse the public.. the truth is the recovery was probably 85% monetary policy 15% fiscal/regulational... but if you compare obama to trump, the former is all head wind (obamacare, regulations), the latter is all tail wind (tax cut, deregulations).... so the recovery happened DESPITE obama, and continued with the help from Trump.

2. snake oil sales man... I think the neutral term is 'sales man'... I'd take a sales man to run a company all day, over some 'professor'... and much more so for running a country.

 

[ironchef]

The average 401(k) balance rose by 466% since the market bottom in March 2009.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/401k-balances-skyrocket-in-the-decade-since-the-market-bottom.html

Fidelity based its findings on 1.64 million accounts where workers actively contributed and remained at the same company over the decade.

Limited sample size and selective sample.

 

[ironchef]

 

[dozu888]

you want to see 'cash on the sidelines' lol

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/m...ta-suggests-bank-customers-are-too-2018-04-25

one after another those cash hoarders will need to come into the market, one after another they will be convinced that stocks are the best value.

 

[neke]

anything is possible - but providing a possible scenario might be more helpful for people to envision, instead of blindly trying to imagine a 10-20 year stand still.

Its NOT blind talking of a 10-20 year standstill. Maybe you started investing in the last decade. But Jan 2000 - Jan 2010 is ten years. The SPY is down over that period, and that's not so long ago. Lets not even go further back.