I don't think that anyone, including the GOP leadership, seriously believed that the tax cuts would pay for themselves. It was simply a gift to reward big party donors. According to the CBO projections, GDP would have to grow by more than 5% annually for the tax cuts to pay for themselves, and only one president, Lyndon Johnson, has accomplished that since 1945.
4.1% GDP growth seems to be a dud
- Thread starter Gotcha
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Well. Trump can always send millions of able bodied men to fight a pointless war like LBJ did....
Well at least Trump has not yet said: Wars are good. Wars are easy to win.
Only people laughing are at you and you know why.
FYI GDP was 2.3% in Trump's first year, a dead heat with Obama's last. Jimmy Carter was 4.6%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...rst-year-echoes-obama-s-record-on-the-economy
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Your unconscious bias is distorting your reality. 4.1% is quite an achievement.
https://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-charts-final/3.html
Your unconscious bias is distorting your reality. 4.1% is quite an achievement.
https://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-charts-final/3.html
My bias is pretty conscious.
The 4.1% is a quarterly figure for the past quarter (Q2) which is well past the first year into presidency 45.
Are you going to say hey, sorry I had that wrong like a gentleman?
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I would like to reiterate a couple of important facts and introduce another one.
Obama had the benefit of a accommodative Fed through QE1, QE2, QE3, TARP, and effectively 0% short term interest rates. Obama also had a $750 Billion Economic Stimulus Package to work with. Furthermore, it is easier to show impressive GDP gains during a recovery than during a mature economic growth cycle.
The new fact I want to introduce is US relative economic performance versus other major countries or economic unions.
The US appears to be outperforming many of these other countries now in economic growth under the Trump Administration compared to relative performance in the Obama Administration. The US stock market has also been one of the strongest world performers this year compared to other major countries.
Although Trump has the recent benefit of his tax cuts, could it be the basis of these strong economic numbers be related to the promise of less onerous business regulation, less taxes, fairer trade agreements, and running the country from a business standpoint by encouraging business to take risks through hiring people and making capital investments?
A business friendly political environment improves economic conditions for all.
Apparently, working minorities have benefitted greatly in the Trump Administration, even more so than the Obama Administration. Trump is not even half way done with his first term yet.
Remember, Trump's economic performance has the headwind of higher interest rates and Fed balance sheet shrinkage.
Has Obama been a better marketing genius than Trump? Maybe.
Has Obama been a better Stewart over the US Economy? Certainly Not.
That's Steward but you are correct Pres Obama was not better. He was the same.
Look at monthly NFP similar, wage gains (or lack thereof) similar, stock market similar.
Somehow the great "Jobs Creator"/Bankrupt Businessman got many to believe he could work some kind of magic.
I expect trade figures to sour going forward. Housing already has. Tax cuts benefits to recede and all that even accomplished were some corporate buybacks, some bonuses and some wage increases. Those last two were really because of the tight job market. But expect that next to change.
Oh and then there has been rising energy prices for a year or more. Pres Obama had, for the most part, declining prices. Funny how drill baby drill the Lib Pres was so blessed and now the free market (supply/demand) has turned and is biting Trumpy in the azz aka economic stats declining.
One last thing heading closer to the mid terms I expect, is more tweet tweets about The Wall and other such nonsense to distract from those waning stats.
Reply to your post inline, below:
"SunTrader, post: 4698524, member: 104359"]That's Steward but you are correct Pres Obama was not better. He was the same.
Thanks for the correction.
Look at monthly NFP similar, wage gains (or lack thereof) similar, stock market similar.
The lack of wage gains is a problem. If the economy is so great and labor is so tight why aren't wages higher? It seems that SP500 earnings performance and the market valuation of those earnings, as in PE ratio, are important considerations in comparing economic performance under Obama and Trump.
Somehow the great "Jobs Creator"/Bankrupt Businessman got many to believe he could work some kind of magic.
Necessity is the mother of strange bedfellows, it has been said. A large group of working people felt persecuted by the media during the Obama Administration. The media generally supported Hillary. If you felt persecuted, felt obligated to vote, and would never vote for Hillary, Trump is the beneficiary by default.
The Radical Left has been consistently calling Trump a liar. Interestingly, they don't use Trump's own words to impeach him: Trump has said he has used the bankruptcy laws to his advantage and has bragged publically about the great return on investment he gets when he wants something from politicians. It sounds like Trump is being honest because these things that he said could have diminished his credibility as a reformer.
I suspect the media does not use Trump's words against him in this case is because it interferes with the media's "Trump always lies" and "Nothing Trump says can be believed" narrative. In addition, the media does not seen to want public attention to be focused on Washington's corruption.
You do understand that corruption is rampant now in the United States, right? From 2 DC prostitutes who worked the "politician market" who "killed themselves" before testifying and their clients list names never being revealed to illegal campaign funds and kickbacks. Now we see corruption in the FBI through selective investigations, and not based on merit. The corrupt and organized criminals that comprise many of our politicians know how to fight back. The Trump-Russia Collusion scam has already been covered here at ET ad nauseam.
I expect trade figures to sour going forward. Housing already has. Tax cuts benefits to recede and all that even accomplished were some corporate buybacks, some bonuses and some wage increases. Those last two were really because of the tight job market. But expect that next to change.
Remember the tax cut was only recently passed and the full effect has yet to be felt. Housing and autos have the headwinds of higher interest rates, higher prices with only modest wage gains, and long term demographics issues affecting developed countries, including the US.
Trade numbers and demographics issues are very concerning. What Trump risked with changing the status quo on trade treaties was foreign consumer attitudes towards US products. My perception is citizens in foreign countries are far more nationalistic than US citizens. US trade performance will likely suffer in the future. Between demographics and nationalistic attitudes being stoked, the global economy could very well start spiraling down. Combined with high leverage of governments, businesses, and consumers, the next downturn could get real ugly. Worse than 2008-2009 ugly.
Although Trump may have thrown another ball in the air on trade, we need to cooperate with each other, domestically and internationally, to mitigate the coming economic storm.
Oh and then there has been rising energy prices for a year or more. Pres Obama had, for the most part, declining prices. Funny how drill baby drill the Lib Pres was so blessed and now the free market (supply/demand) has turned and is biting Trumpy in the azz aka economic stats declining.
Energy prices will be energy prices. They will loosely follow the global economy. One can select favorable time periods to try to create an argument, but there are much bigger issues going on right now. Besides, high fossil fuel prices encourages conservation, energy saving initiatives, and alternate energy sources. Energy conservation and alternate energy sources lower CO2 emissions. Many Leftists could live with that scenario, I'd imagine.
One last thing heading closer to the mid terms I expect, is more tweet tweets about The Wall and other such nonsense to distract from those waning stats.
I follow transportation industry metrics very closely. From Maritimes's Dry Baltic Index, Trucking load to truck ratio, to air fright and rail stock prices. All of these metrics are still at strong levels. Trucking, the second most expensive form of transportation, is still near decisively high prices relative to historical measures. I can see daily load to truck statistics for "overflow" freight. We would need to see to see a quick and sharp reversal to affect leading economic indicators enough in time to have a chance to affect the midterms, I'd suspect.
Besides, the Left is poised to take over the House. Then again, wasn't that said about the Presidency in 2016?
"SunTrader, post: 4698524, member: 104359"]That's Steward but you are correct Pres Obama was not better. He was the same.
Thanks for the correction.
Look at monthly NFP similar, wage gains (or lack thereof) similar, stock market similar.
The lack of wage gains is a problem. If the economy is so great and labor is so tight why aren't wages higher? It seems that SP500 earnings performance and the market valuation of those earnings, as in PE ratio, are important considerations in comparing economic performance under Obama and Trump.
Somehow the great "Jobs Creator"/Bankrupt Businessman got many to believe he could work some kind of magic.
Necessity is the mother of strange bedfellows, it has been said. A large group of working people felt persecuted by the media during the Obama Administration. The media generally supported Hillary. If you felt persecuted, felt obligated to vote, and would never vote for Hillary, Trump is the beneficiary by default.
The Radical Left has been consistently calling Trump a liar. Interestingly, they don't use Trump's own words to impeach him: Trump has said he has used the bankruptcy laws to his advantage and has bragged publically about the great return on investment he gets when he wants something from politicians. It sounds like Trump is being honest because these things that he said could have diminished his credibility as a reformer.
I suspect the media does not use Trump's words against him in this case is because it interferes with the media's "Trump always lies" and "Nothing Trump says can be believed" narrative. In addition, the media does not seen to want public attention to be focused on Washington's corruption.
You do understand that corruption is rampant now in the United States, right? From 2 DC prostitutes who worked the "politician market" who "killed themselves" before testifying and their clients list names never being revealed to illegal campaign funds and kickbacks. Now we see corruption in the FBI through selective investigations, and not based on merit. The corrupt and organized criminals that comprise many of our politicians know how to fight back. The Trump-Russia Collusion scam has already been covered here at ET ad nauseam.
I expect trade figures to sour going forward. Housing already has. Tax cuts benefits to recede and all that even accomplished were some corporate buybacks, some bonuses and some wage increases. Those last two were really because of the tight job market. But expect that next to change.
Remember the tax cut was only recently passed and the full effect has yet to be felt. Housing and autos have the headwinds of higher interest rates, higher prices with only modest wage gains, and long term demographics issues affecting developed countries, including the US.
Trade numbers and demographics issues are very concerning. What Trump risked with changing the status quo on trade treaties was foreign consumer attitudes towards US products. My perception is citizens in foreign countries are far more nationalistic than US citizens. US trade performance will likely suffer in the future. Between demographics and nationalistic attitudes being stoked, the global economy could very well start spiraling down. Combined with high leverage of governments, businesses, and consumers, the next downturn could get real ugly. Worse than 2008-2009 ugly.
Although Trump may have thrown another ball in the air on trade, we need to cooperate with each other, domestically and internationally, to mitigate the coming economic storm.
Oh and then there has been rising energy prices for a year or more. Pres Obama had, for the most part, declining prices. Funny how drill baby drill the Lib Pres was so blessed and now the free market (supply/demand) has turned and is biting Trumpy in the azz aka economic stats declining.
Energy prices will be energy prices. They will loosely follow the global economy. One can select favorable time periods to try to create an argument, but there are much bigger issues going on right now. Besides, high fossil fuel prices encourages conservation, energy saving initiatives, and alternate energy sources. Energy conservation and alternate energy sources lower CO2 emissions. Many Leftists could live with that scenario, I'd imagine.
One last thing heading closer to the mid terms I expect, is more tweet tweets about The Wall and other such nonsense to distract from those waning stats.
I follow transportation industry metrics very closely. From Maritimes's Dry Baltic Index, Trucking load to truck ratio, to air fright and rail stock prices. All of these metrics are still at strong levels. Trucking, the second most expensive form of transportation, is still near decisively high prices relative to historical measures. I can see daily load to truck statistics for "overflow" freight. We would need to see to see a quick and sharp reversal to affect leading economic indicators enough in time to have a chance to affect the midterms, I'd suspect.
Besides, the Left is poised to take over the House. Then again, wasn't that said about the Presidency in 2016?