4,000/1 Odds

[cybtropic]

Not enough info from that study. A REAL daytrader will not start trading for a living until he has had some success before going fulltime. Someone who puts $2k in an account and starts trading for first time ain't a real daytrader.

As an example, I think the study tells you that out of 4000 who put $2k in an account and started trading for the first time, ONE actually made it to the point where he was successful enough to trade for a living, fulltime.

 

[Kicking]

I have got a problem with those stats. There aren't 2 million
daytraders on the face of the earth , how did he find them in Taiwan alone ? They used a very loose definition "anyone dabbling in the market on a regular basis". These are not pros or semi-pros. As a whole they are probably a less sophisticated bunch and then there is the Chinese gambling culture. So these numbers I take them with a grain of salt but the reality isn't a great deal better probably.

 

[TradingPilot]

The real odds are more like 2 or 3 out of 100 not good!

 

[chrisdunn]

Quote from Jaytrade:

Expectations...

Why do most fail? Probably because they have not done their research and do not posses the right behavioral traits (and do not understand they can be fine tuned and learned).

Also, how many of these failed traders want to make millions? I would say most fail because their expectations were too high.

Then, out of how many successful traders, what was the starting expectation? "give it a try" "play it like a game" and make just a FEW buck$? Then probably that is why they succeed...

My buddy has just started trading. Is now up 750% and how did that happen? He used money he could live without, and "played" the futures like a "game" with very low starting expectations. That's how you create success...but the real traders need to find a way to keep the $ucce$$ and not blow it

Luck is also helpful...
"Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb can explain that...

I kind of agree with you, but you're missing one key element. Trading is a SKILL, not a book you read or game you play. It takes practice and dedication... for example, I sim traded for over a year (full time) before I started trading real money. Now I don't think it should take people that long, but the point is there... you can treat this like a game or a business. I bet you $1 that your friend will NOT stay profitable if he keeps playing this as a game.

CD

 

[TraDaToR]

I have a question:

How long do you have to trade successfully to be considered profitable?

 

[kenten]

it says here that "The population in the Taiwan Area of the Republic of China was estimated in July 2007 at 22,858,872"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan

so 1 out of every 10 people in taiwan is a daytrader ( not just trader or interested in trading or seen a chart or tape)

statistics are flawed all the way

 

[BlueHorseshoe]

Quote from kenten:

it says here that "The population in the Taiwan Area of the Republic of China was estimated in July 2007 at 22,858,872"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan

so 1 out of every 10 people in taiwan is a daytrader ( not just trader or interested in trading or seen a chart or tape)

statistics are flawed all the way

You are jumping to conclusions. They looked at data over ~15 years ... so some daytraded for only a short period over that time.

And yes, 10% of the population, or +20% of the adult population has daytraded for some period over the last 15 years. Taiwan had a bubble economy just like Japan - but it was more extreme here. Everyone caught the fever, and nobody forgot. Lots of people come back from time to time to try their hand again.

 

[BlueHorseshoe]

A lot of the posts on this thread provide evidence that, at the end of the day, people will believe what they want to believe, regardless of what any evidence may suggest.

So no point in arguing ... you win. (Hahaha!)

 

[vandger]

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Just finished listening to a presentation by a Brad Barber, professor at UC Davis. He is studying day trading performance in Taiwan (where I live.) Trading data on the local market is clearly identified as individual or institutional, and individual trades make up 25% of liquidity, so it is a good market to study.

Anyway, he said they have looked at the records of ~2-million "daytraders" over a 15-year period, and have identified about 500 who are/were consistently profitable.

So, in a nutshell he is telling us 1 in 4,000 daytraders are profitable.

Look to your left, look to your right, gentlemen. If you don't see 3,999 losers well, you get the point.

it determinded on how u guys define "daytrader".