Quote from TraderZones:
Idiots reign supreme.
Stoned is one of the most stupid and self-misguided people I have ever seen.
Lots of people also write to Jack Hershey, and he is just as willing to convince himself that he knows what he is doing.
That is why 95% lose their money trading...
Zones your note is wrong on so many levels. First of all you have never SEEN me, if you had and I could find you again, you wouldn't of even posted. At least you acknowledge the reign supreme part.
Lots of people Do not write to Jack Hershey.
He has not convinced himself he knows what he is doing- no one has. 95% of people lose money because the F*ing stock market is DOWN 50% YOU MORON..... Obama had one of his few great linesd last night in reacting to the McCain plan for lower capital gains taxes.... " No body has capital gains. " In a normal uptrending market folks as simple as hell make fine money just in index funds! I think what you were trying to say is most active investors or daytraders fail and that's probably true.
The point is I have a point. And I have been around long enough doing this that I know when to be scared and when not to. Today, friends, I'm back to scared.... The small minded can attack in times of greatest calamity, I'm sure little Zones would be typing away to Yahoo in the middle of the Pear Harbor attack, were he and computers around then... A whole lot of people NEEDED that money last week buddy, I know- I was one of them. To trivialize this thread with the same boring one liners we have been hearing for years... my god... bring something interesting to the table or take your damn bib off!
Today I want to talk about Munis-
I have been struggling with finding the right way to play this should the uneneding, Icelandic-like terror never abate.... and Munis strike as an interesting opportunity. Certainly researching and buying the right Mutual fund in thsi arena would be a fine place to stash a large chunk of cash now, should anyone have that. I was sent some comments from JP Morgan Private Wealth, Yes I know someone wealthy enough to get their email updates- stoney
The most significant changes will take place in U.S. portfolios for taxable investors, where we are reducing cash and hedge funds, and gradually adding to longer-duration municipals. As for hedge funds, the reduction reflects changing terms and conditions for liquidity affecting some funds as described in the September 26 EOTM, and the possibility of marginally higher federal tax rates for high net worth individuals. As for municipals, while tax-free money market yields are not that different than 5 and 10 year municipals, we believe money market yields will decline (perhaps as banks that function as liquidity providers on municipal variable rate demand notes take on more risk).
A further word on municipals. We are preparing a broader piece on the topic, but some of the press articles appear to be overstating the distress. Massachusetts is a good example. There was a lot of concern about their financing needs and ability to access short-term municipal credit markets last week. They then proceeded to issue nearly $1 billion of short-dated securities at 2.2%, which was 6 times oversubscribed (demand vs. supply). There have been press reports about funding shortfalls, but these are to be expected given declines in employment and housing. However, unlike the Federal government and many financial institutions that did not prepare for a rainy day, many states did. In the aftermath of the 2002 tech collapse, states recognized the importance of excess reserves to address fiscal downturns. These rainy day facilities amount to around $50 billion (b), which is around 7.5% of total state expenditures, and more than 2/3 of expected budget shortfalls. In addition, states don't run accumulated deficits like the Federal Government: 49 out of 50 states have balanced budget clauses limiting their ability to run prolonged deficits, and explicitly prohibit deficit carry-forwards (c).
As we have covered in prior notes, general obligation and essential service revenue bonds have lived through some very tough periods (d). Despite five recessions including arguably the worst recession in post-war history (1973-75), Fed Funds rising to 19 percent, two oil shocks, wage and price controls, unemployment that hit 10 percent, a couple of episodes of 30.0 readings on the ISM report, several stock market crashes, etc., the incidence of municipal default is extremely rare. Moodyâs reports a grand total of 41 defaults of their rated bonds from 1970 to 2006 out of 28,000 issuers, and report that their entire universe of rated municipal bonds experienced a lower default rate than Aaa-rated corporate bonds. Moodyâs defaults were highly concentrated in not-for-profit hospitals and multifamily housing. Fitch reports only 2 defaults over a similar period, and S&P reports no rated defaults of all AAA and AA-rated bonds, with a 0.19% default rate on A-rated paper.
natural gas is the place to be today!