3rd Time A Charm?

you need a break bro. You have to figure that we are closer to the bottom than we are to the top. That being the case, the pain should stop at some point here. We could always buy some land and start a commune. :D
 
1 nibble I'm fried. I look at my dear wife and I just want her to stop saying whatever she is saying.... CSI, Obama.... I can't make conversation. I still love everybody but everything seems so petty in comparison to the world falling apart. And I hate that I feel this way.

Great recovery by NLY today!
ENER too! New target their by Amtech today is $59 & there was a real nice piece out yesterday on them by someone I'll track it down next week.

can I eat my way out of this? So depressed.
DOWN 475 , 72 on the VIX , down 8 days in a row never before happened. Iceland Is Melting & and I've got some praying to do.
~stoney
 
NLY $10.75 - $13.00

MOS $35 - $47

MET $27 - $41

PRGO $ 30 - $34

FCX $35 - $45

HBC $ 68 - $45.....


Well the family didn't want to talk to stoney for a few days but they are burning down the phone lines now!!! Yes that was me who prfedicted this move AND told you why it was going to happen.
It was me down 400 on Friday who gave these picks out and now the poor brokers at Wackyovia who sat on their own funds despite my email primer will stew and stew today as I collect some outsized gains. True it pales to the amount lost this year. I know more prudent controls would of saved me. But alas all that option writing against positions LOL, well thank god we didn't do that. UPSIDE is one thing you never want to limit....And what of the hedge fund where I strong armed Freeport Mac in for their own good and a $10 gain... I'll wait and wait for a thank you but probably won't get one. Won't get an IPO either because they are none. In general I don't know why I do this. Non of you have commented on this thread either and I haven't looked but I imagine by stars are WAY to low... I took you from the depths of depression to the height of balls in, all in type investing, I rode the scared spine of mother market and made a few salient points along the way. Proving 3rd Time Was A Charm and making for a very good read. Good for me now what of today? ~stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

Yes that was me who prfedicted this move AND told you why it was going to happen.
More...

No, you did not predict anything. We have a raft of UP! DOWN! people on this board in a number of instruments. They are naive. When it does what half of them say, they feel like geniuses. The other half is quiet.

This market is a gyrating tornado. No one knows where it will go or where it will be months from now.

Your brilliance was no more than being the one of many counting the beans in a jar. You were the lucky one, not the smart one.

Traders should trade the market's price action and stop prognosticating
 
TraderZone you ignorant fool.

I PREDICTED THREE DIFFERENT RISES OFF THE BOTTOM EACH SUCCESSFUL WITH DIAMONDS JUST OPEN YOUR DAMN EYES. FURTHERMORE I GAVE OUT NOT ONE NOT TWO BUT A S LOAD OF GREAT BUYS. WITH THE MARKET DOWN WE WERE IDENTIFYING SLIGHT DIVERGENCES WHICH GAVE US HOPE.
AND JUDGING BY THE EMAILS I'M GETTING QUITE A FEW OUT THERE ARE DAMN HAPPY ABOUT EVERY CALL ON THIS THREAD. EVEN THE TIPS!!!!!!!!

If there is one thing I can't stand is soot nosed desk jocks who like to tell people not to predict. They oh so want you not to because THEY CAN'T DO IT! I catch bottoms AT BOTTOMS FOOLIO I get full % return while you chase and swing the day away. Man don't get me going Zone you should know better. I'm 100% fully invested my whole life is the market I don't use banks I'm on edge perhaps more than most. I try to show both sides of me- the fearful side wrestling with hop & dispair vs the I'll give it one more try side... I've been terribly hurt by your comments because is displays no concern for your fellow trader. In these difficult times try to rise above yahoo chat points and when someone with something valuable to say says something- listen.

Anyway lets wipe the slate clean and describe how investments are made on a daily basis. I began the day looking at LDK solar from there I was redirected to a Zacks piece which highlighted Jim Oberweis's feeling on solar at the bottom ofg that page was a anti oil play in nat gas- GMXR which he liked very much.

invest in natural gas. To be sure, gas is only half green; it also generates heat-trapping carbon dioxide, just a lot less than other fossil fuels. But gas is plentiful and proven. GMX Resources (47, GMXR ) is one of my favorite American natural gas exploration companies. It has acreage in the Haynesville Shale, a pool of energy in Louisiana and East Texas that could rival the famous Hugoton field of Kansas. GMX earned $1.63 a share in the last 12 months. I expect $3 for the next 12 months.....

This reminded me of a short squad in Canada who has a long on this name to I uncovered -

2008's bewildering market has even been tough for at least one high-profile bear.
Considering the bleak outlook for many developed economies, it's no surprise that Canadian money manager Sprott Asset Management, wielding a negative view of the global economy, saw this year as the right time to make its Toronto stock market debut. Founder Eric Sprott has been a vocal bear for quite some time, and on the recent quarterly conference call -- Sprott's first as a public company -- he told analysts that the firm holds about C$1.5 billion in various short positions.

But it's the firm's exposure to commodities that may be weighing on it in recent weeks, as Sprott's U.S.-listed equity holdings are heavy into commodities and those sectors have fallen steeply from their highs. Sprott's Canadian debut has also proven underwhelming thus far. The stock slid lower on its first trading day and has so far not managed to close above its C$10 offering price.

IPO woes aside, Eric Sprott has been a shrewd money manager. The firm's flagship fund has returned 30% annually in the past five years, according to Bloomberg. While Sprott, which oversees several mutual funds and hedge funds, has exposure to many Canadian-listed firms, American investors may be interested in the various U.S.-listed equities it holds, many of them mining stocks.

By far, the largest U.S.-listed position in Sprott's portfolio is coal stock James River Coal (Nasdaq: JRCC - News), which Sprott was adding to during Q2.

Elsewhere, Sprott added stakes in gold miners New Gold (AMEX: NGD - News), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY - News), and Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC - News), while trimming stakes in gold miners Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS - News) and Seabridge Gold (AMEX: SA - News). Sprott also OPENED A NEW STAKE in oil and natural gas exploration and production company GMX Resources (Nasdaq: GMXR - News) during the quarter....

So we have a short and a long both liking a name that is down from $70. What I like about GMXR myself is that they announced a shortfall in production due to a delay in start ups partially caused by these hurricanes and the stk went down only 2%. There is a little insider selling which worries me.

An analyst today defended the name I think it was stern age I'll track it down... so we have a triangulation of thought that has led me away from my initial choice today APWR * HIGHLIGHTED HERE AT $5!!!!!! but I did not buy I'm looking at that $7.15 area.... And I was looking at ENER & LDK but I have landed in natural gas... such is the way of the everyday investor.

My hedge fund is " back to hating everything " so that gives me some pause.... they currently only have one short term long in Nat Gas (means they think something is up) That stk I will research first to make sure it fits within the standards here at ET but it has three letters to it's symbol so I imagine it's on the NYSE..., oh F* it I'll just give it to you- SWN- Southwestern Something...

Anyway let me have the anger juice subside a bit from that Zoner who rained on my beautiful thread.... It's 3:30, do you know where your PLUNGE Protection team is????

It occurred to me that if they were in the market recently today might be the last day they have to buy anything. A basket buy on close here would give every indication of institution buying especially if it's not there!

~stoney
 
here's the Morgan Keegan piece- It's I think a typo the analyst did not cut Fly on the wall has it as a reinforcement as well.... The new outlook is the company provided outlook....

AP
Analyst cuts forecast on GMX Resources
Tuesday September 23, 2:02 pm ET
Morgan Keegan analyst still bullish on GMX Resources' Haynesville field despite new outlook

NEW YORK (AP) -- A Morgan Keegan analyst said GMX Resources Inc.'s revised production forecast doesn't change his outlook on the natural gas company, since he still believes the Haynesville region can be a "huge" catalyst for the stock.

GMX Resources, which primarily explores and produces natural gas with its activities concentrated in east Texas, on Monday cut its 2008 production guidance to 13 billion cubic feet from a previous forecast range of 13 billion to 13.8 billion cubic feet.

The reduction is due to early delays in getting its horizontal drilling program going in the Haynesville/Bossier Shale acreage in east Texas and north Louisiana and some minor drilling slowdowns associated with hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

Analyst J. Michael Drickamer said the company is waiting on key materials and the delivery of a rig that was to occur in August which will now be delivered late in the fourth quarter.

"None of this changes our outlook," he wrote in a note to investors.

GMX Resources shares fell $1.08, or 2 percent, to $53.45 in Tuesday afternoon trading. The shares have ranged between $23.65 and $88.35 over the past year.

>> That's sept 23rd @ $53 today the stk is $30! has nat gas fallen that much? Overshoot much? Look at a chart and you will se a nice shelf at $40 where the stk should be in any normal downdraft... so there we have it $10 a share for you from me... now I have to strong arm GMXR into the account tomorrow unless APWR suddenly sweeps me off my feet and it may... These are my new ideas, few though they may be... I continue to hold lots of Synovis bank SNV and Perrigo Healthcare PRGO and Titan International, the big wheel people... as buys I made recently DURING THE
BLOOD ON THE STREETS PHASE that are all up nicely... EWZ, the Brazillian ETF mentioned in this thread for $10 ALREADY!!!!!! Needs careful look see; I'm honest, I whiffed on that, even though it was a good chart set up- so I have an eye on Brazil now too.

peace. ~ stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

Hello folks. Words cannot describe the state of my affairs so I have been quiet. You may remember the last time I checked in I called a mini bottom that was another head fake, I made great $'s on some Blackstone and CF & Goldman... and then rolled into some fabby stks... FMCN, MIDD and DRYS! Well I'm still holding FMCN as they say, I got bitch slapped and scared and ran from the others with big losses. Effectively wiping out the nice gains made in the flips.... Such is the state of me & the market.

This morning with the Global rate cuts and and the futures flopping down I told the wife " This Is It, The Big Crash " and my wife said " I thought that was yesterday ".... Well pardon her for not grasping the seriousness of all of this but honestly yesterday I'm staring at the Nasdaq and saying well if we have 9 more days like this in a row... WE'RE AT ZERO! I'll have nothing. No job. No income, two mortgages, no stocks... When you think like that- it's real fear.

And as I walk the streets of New York real fear is everywhere in the hollowed out gazes of folks walking around. I myself feel like a war vet I'm often gazing out at nothing in particular- I snapped out of it yesterday & I was in ABC Carpet buying a metal bird for $150. I have no idea why I did that. Recession is like a blanket draped over the city gently, the lights of fun are slowly dimmed. At lunch at Union Square at the bar 4 stools were available to my left- unheard of. I had a $80 lunch, no wine with my wife. Unheard of. And when I left, the match boxes I usually scoop so many of at the door as some sort of minor payback- were removed. Som Burger joint asked me if I wanted ketchup packets in my hamburger delivery the other day....

Anyway I took the kid to pre school fully expecting the DOW to be down 300-500 and I even called my poor mom and told her no promises, I've been wrong twice but today feels like the real flush buyers have been waiting for.
Then I got home and we were up 100 already... way to fast, before the AVERAGE man is even fully off the can with his coffee... surely this isn't computers talking either, I don't see at what level we are near that would of caught all the Quants attention.... could it have been stealth buying of DOW stocks by the government? Feels that way. Things are flipping around crazy.

This is so weird with the politics happening at the same time. What do we believe?
When they say banks are not lending yet the regional numbers show they are lending. It's really banks aren't greasing the system with their carry trades anymore, they are hoarding capital, the big ones are... but is the regional bank still making fair loans? The numbers say yes but they tell us no.

No doubt the biggest rally will come when the Gov prices it's first batch of CDO's.... then magically all the banks balance sheets will look a hell of a lot healthier and their capital ratios will fall into line and hopefully they will start lending and writing new mortgages. How the hell do we get LIBOR down? I'm struggling with that.

This plan by the gov surely will be examined by the business classes of the future. What the gov was faced with and how they acted.The decision to put the GSEs into conservatorship will likely end up being one of the most widely debated decisions in U.S. economic and market history.

The argument against the gov's plan revolves around the fact that as recently as early September 2008 there was no need to! In
early September, the GSEs were rolling over their short term debt below Libor, and as late as September 2, Freddie Mac issued a 5-year bond at only0.95% over 5-year Treasuries.

Then Freddi and Fannie though they have cash flow are reduced to dollar stks and everyone panicked, or did they? Did things cascade so badly at the end of the month that all of this is warranted? And if so you have to admit the fed & the gov is acting in real time and have already put a lot into the system when compared to reaction times of the great depression and other long recessions past. Life feels so fragile now. A scared investor cannot make a living. And with dividends being slashed perhaps he cannot even live.

What have we done? It seems so obvious 30% leverage should have been illegal. Where do you draw the line, I know, but when the greed has put the very system your country is based upon at risk, when Karl Marx isn't looking as stupid anymore and when Russia and Brazil have more cash than you do.... maybe 10% should of been the line in the sand.

All of these bankers- their jobs are being saved it seems from Lehman. Who will save the job of the waiter or the boutique owner- the small businessman? They do nothing wrong and pay for all of this while the boxheads take their boxes from their office and set up in Singapore or Britain.

Why did the Treasury do it? What is the real politics here? Who made the mark to market decision really? Who in the Gov was behind the decision to apply GAAP standards to GSEs in September 2008! The very time everything fell apart. We're not hearing much about that. Fund managers who were down a lot of course were clammering for explicit guarantees to calm the markets- but the markets have dived anyway- In hindsight one can ask whether September 2008 was the right time to provide such a guarantee, and extract such a steep price from preferred and common shareholders! What immediately followed was a shutdown in preferred stock markets and other sources of capital for now under-capitalized banks..... and from there it has only been a few short weeks of panic free fall to where we are now.

What happens when the ban of short selling on certain banks expires? Could shorts be lured in before the Gov auction? The timing here is fascinating.

So today with more volume on the low and more time spent there we might have had capitulation day... but does that matter even anymore? So we finally go up a thousand into the elections... it's going to happen most likely- but does anything change? We are at damn 10,000 again. Remember Maria dancing at 14,000 I do. Remember the Fast Money guys? What a joke.

Today if the Gov was in there secretly buying this morning surely they will be there on the close.

When will the Gov auction there first batch of bad debt? When will they establish a floor? is there a floor?

Did the decision to let Lehman go under cause all of this or shock everyone into action? There certainly was no time to unwind bad bets because JP Morgan came knocking for collateral.
THEY REALLY PUSHED THE ROCK OVER THE CLIFF, you don't here much about that! The savior Jamie Dimon pushed the rock. If the Gov can establish a base price by overpaying a bit for these CDO's of shaky debt- say 77 cents on the dollar, the banks balance sheets suddenly will appear a whole lot healthier. They won't need capital raises. Banks stks will go up and they will feel embolden to lend. If the Fed keeps cutting rates there will be great incentive to lend- almost a greed to lend- banks will be able to borrow cheap and lend out pretty high... Once one of the remaining big guys starts doing it, everyone else will fall into line. That's the hope anyway.

When the first outside financing for one of our sagging banks turns positive, when some Sovereign wealth Fund makes a profit- that will indeed mark a real bottom.

Today will be wild BOTH WAYS.... It would be healthy to close far and away at the HIGHS but who will do the investing? I'm scared. Can the retail investor summon the guts? I don't believe the Hedge Funds will. Everyone is just so worn out and tired.

We have tried the drip by drip approach (wack-a-mole) putting out fires as they developed, then we have switched to a blanket over everything approach and along the way they had to draw the line somewhere... We did so with Lehman Bros. Has that caused all of this? Or just the the reckoning that we needed globally to end all of this?

In two years will we be thankful for the boring old stock market of yesteryear where banks simply took deposits and made easy free reliable money off them without leveraging or competing with investment banks? Could we go back to stks going up 25cents or 50 cents or a dollar? I liked that way better.

In two years will everything be better? Or will we just be emerging from a prolonged recession? Compared to the Depression #'s there is hope- According to BusinessWeek,
in 1932 lower rated corporate bonds paid 5.6% MORE than high grade bonds... that is certainly not happening. Personal Income by 1933 had come down 25%! It's closer to 5% now.... True panic is not in the streets yet and all of this greasing of the system seems to me to be far ahead of Gov actions in the market in prior calamities. Output at US factories & mines fell by 54% between 1929 and 32. By comparison so far we are down 2%! A lot of this is in the mind so to speak. But when your account says what it does... it becomes real. Very real. When you can say well, nine more days like that and we are at zero... certainly the end must be in sight... The end of the free fall anyway...

I kind of agree in the long run that someone had to go down and it couldn't be AIG. The fact that Goldman's ass was saved there and Paulson's connection there will all be analyzed for sure, but when you consider the global footprint of AIG, Goldman's ability to get out from under was probably secondary to everyone's thinking at the time... However, psychologically, the " biggest bankruptcy ever " has ruined the consumer it seems and ensured a painful few years for us all.

All of this political confusion might be solved if we just switched the names around. If we called Wall Street Main Street and Main Street Wall Street. Right now life sucks on both.~ stoney
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Musta been some real mean green on October 8...
 
It was, it was my Cramer moment except rather than get everybody out of the market and into TBills, I got them back in a bit... and of course Erin wasn't there staring at me doe eyed... unfortunately. ~ stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

TraderZone you ignorant fool.

I PREDICTED THREE DIFFERENT RISES OFF THE BOTTOM EACH SUCCESSFUL WITH DIAMONDS JUST OPEN YOUR DAMN EYES. FURTHERMORE I GAVE OUT NOT ONE NOT TWO BUT A S LOAD OF GREAT BUYS. WITH THE MARKET DOWN WE WERE IDENTIFYING SLIGHT DIVERGENCES WHICH GAVE US HOPE.
AND JUDGING BY THE EMAILS I'M GETTING QUITE A FEW OUT THERE ARE DAMN HAPPY ABOUT EVERY CALL ON THIS THREAD. EVEN THE TIPS!!!!!!!!

If there is one thing I can't stand is soot nosed desk jocks who like to tell people not to predict. They oh so want you not to because THEY CAN'T DO IT! I catch bottoms AT BOTTOMS FOOLIO I get full % return while you chase and swing the day away. Man don't get me going Zone you should know better. I'm 100% fully invested my whole life is the market I don't use banks I'm on edge perhaps more than most. I try to show both sides of me- the fearful side wrestling with hop & dispair vs the I'll give it one more try side... I've been terribly hurt by your comments because is displays no concern for your fellow trader. In these difficult times try to rise above yahoo chat points and when someone with something valuable to say says something- listen.

~stoney
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I can't believe that you purport to be a trader after reading all your emotional b.s. and angry replies ! No way you can ever have a succcessful trading career with that defensive and ego-based personalty profile as you potray in your posting! If you have not already - get a day job. (and a good shrink)
 
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