32 year cycle, down move expected in July

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Option_Trader32

The attachment is charts of the DJ index. The top chart is a portion of 1975 and the lower is of 1943. Each are 32 years apart and the next 32 above 1975 is 2007. The markets follow a 32 year cycle. The turn points on the charts are numbered and right now the market is moving to the #5 high due mid July. The 6 low is in early August. This doesn't give the magnitude of a market move but the approximate timing. I am looking to buy puts on an over bought stock like GM perhaps. Anyway, I thought I would post this. Good trading to all.:)

Let me mention, the charts are from www.prophet.net. They are their java charts. Open the charting application, get the DJ 30 index open, click the drop down box of time period and click on "all". The dow will load going back to 1901, then click daily if you want daily bars and you can look at daily data of the Dow going back to 1901.



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I agree, to a degree. Elliot Wave combined with fibonacci determines market reversals with quite accurate results(I know the response I will get on this so dont bother, I see all sides).

However I do believe that it will only be a temporary top in July. A "corrective wave" so to speak. If you look at Elliot Wave and Gann, the market should reach somewhere between 14,400 and 19,000. All depends on what is going on in China. China is carrying us at this point to a degree. Once China cools off, Watch out!

If anything we will have a short-term corrective wave and then as we head into the holidays resume the last (#5) wave of this current Bull Run that began in 2003. By next spring and the approaching of the Summer Olympics in Beijing, we should hit 14,400. If we break past restistance, then we head toward 19,000. However at some point we will hit the top of the Grand Cycle and when we do, you had better be short on anything and everything in the markets, across the board.

We will go into a mild recession as the China market corrects that could last 2 years or so and then we repeat the process all over again! My 2 cents! Nate
 
Quote from NathanGresham:

I agree, to a degree. Elliot Wave combined with fibonacci determines market reversals with quite accurate results(I know the response I will get on this so dont bother, I see all sides).

However I do believe that it will only be a temporary top in July. A "corrective wave" so to speak. If you look at Elliot Wave and Gann, the market should reach somewhere between 14,400 and 19,000. All depends on what is going on in China. China is carrying us at this point to a degree. Once China cools off, Watch out!

If anything we will have a short-term corrective wave and then as we head into the holidays resume the last (#5) wave of this current Bull Run that began in 2003. By next spring and the approaching of the Summer Olympics in Beijing, we should hit 14,400. If we break past restistance, then we head toward 19,000. However at some point we will hit the top of the Grand Cycle and when we do, you had better be short on anything and everything in the markets, across the board.

We will go into a mild recession as the China market corrects that could last 2 years or so and then we repeat the process all over again! My 2 cents! Nate
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I am looking for 1587.50-1608 for spx cash..... and then the bear market will commence...
 
'75 was counted wrong #9-10. Missed a lot of info. Two waves.

I do not know how true it is but in last month SFO same thing was projected. i forgot the article just look around the magazine and you will find it. If you need it indefenatly I might send you info if you PM me.

PS if same thing happend in 1911. Then your thesis might be correct. Otherwise, you can find this everywhere. There is only two different years of existance. It might be a coincident. If you have a third year (this one doesnt count yet) then your thesis will be much more sound.
 
Quote from rateesquad:

'75 was counted wrong #9-10. Missed a lot of info. Two waves.

I do not know how true it is but in last month SFO same thing was projected. i forgot the article just look around the magazine and you will find it. If you need it indefenatly I might send you info if you PM me.

PS if same thing happend in 1911. Then your thesis might be correct. Otherwise, you can find this everywhere. There is only two different years of existance. It might be a coincident. If you have a third year (this one doesnt count yet) then your thesis will be much more sound.
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I suppose there could also be 2 more waves between 4 and 5. My experience is that you can continue and look for smaller and smaller waves, but you need to stop somewhere and only look at your desired time frame. Yes, 1911 can be included, although for the period of june/july, there was no volatility and the cycles are not obvious.
Doubtful the SFO artical had anything to do with this. I did not see it, but what was it about, Elliot waves? Actually, these and other time periods are what cause Elliot waves.
 
As mentioned in my first post, if anyone wants to check this out, use the java charts at www.prophet.net. For example, if you wanted to compare the cycles to the recent action in 2006, just use the charts from 1974, 1942, and 1910 and compare. Then you would have 4 series to look at and your will be all set for market action in 2039.
 
Unfortunately, world political events, the rise of China, demographic/gnp/income changes, technology advances, American political events, climate changes, etc, etc...i.e. what drives the markets - cares little about Elliott Waves and 32 year cycles. Spurious correlations abound and are not helpful.

But if it works for ya, have at it!

Good trading to all. :cool:
 
Quote from NathanGresham:

I agree, to a degree. Elliot Wave combined with fibonacci determines market reversals with quite accurate results(I know the response I will get on this so dont bother, I see all sides).
More...

Fib is useless and EW is useless, so combining them leaves little hope
 
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