30 min breakout ES mini/SPY strategy?

bearmace

bearmace

I checked out this online seminar with a futures guru that talked about a pretty simple strategy reputed to work 80% of the time ish, thats called the 30 min breakout.

its pretty much waiting for the SPY to make its first 30 min high low range after the open, then going long if it breaks the first 30 min high, or shorting if it breaks the 30 min low.

anyone have experience with these simple trend chasing strategies? does 15 min or 30 min breakout work better?
 
More like 30% winners I would guess.

There was a guy on here years ago who claimed to have implemented such a system and made it work. I recall his handle was 40yotrader or something like that.

I recall it because I had tested similar systems and never found one that worked without significant filters. He claimed his didn't work on its own but with money management strategies that involved doubling up, it was profitable.

A lot of breakout systems look good in a strong market.
 
bearmace said:
I checked out this online seminar with a futures guru that talked about a pretty simple strategy reputed to work 80% of the time ish, thats called the 30 min breakout.

its pretty much waiting for the SPY to make its first 30 min high low range after the open, then going long if it breaks the first 30 min high, or shorting if it breaks the 30 min low.

anyone have experience with these simple trend chasing strategies? does 15 min or 30 min breakout work better?
More...


Even if the system is right 80% of the time, you can still lose money using such a system. What's more important is how much you lose when the system is wrong 20% of the time.

For example, if you make $10 every time the system is right (80%) and lose $100 every time the system is wrong (20%), you end up losing in the long run. [10 * .8 - 100 * .2 = (-$12)]


--
<a href="http://www.optionstack.com"> Stock option analysis tools </a>
 
More than 50% of the time the high/low is made in first 30 minutes of the day session, but it is not a large enough edge to do this strategy cause too often the extreme is broken and market will go other way for lots of losses. I highly doubt it is near 80% winners. I remember a friend of mine did this method, on first day and price took out the highs, then reversed and took out the lows where he reversed and price went and took out the highs again. I did all I could not to laugh. If you look at June 16th, price takes out highs, then breaks new lows on the day and finishes higher, and yesterday took out the lows and wild day if you reversed by taking out the highs and stomach the retrace right after. This could be this system where you make a small fortune by starting with a large fortune.

I remember testing something like this fifteen years ago and didn't make me warm and fuzzy, I believe what worked better was fading it, but certainly not well enough for me to trade it.
 
Go look at the ACD thread here, and read the first few hundred pages. It "works" but you need to pay attention and put a lot of work into it.
 
Handle123 said:
More than 50% of the time the high/low is made in first 30 minutes of the day session, but it is not a large enough edge to do this strategy cause too often the extreme is broken and market will go other way for lots of losses. I highly doubt it is near 80% winners. I remember a friend of mine did this method, on first day and price took out the highs, then reversed and took out the lows where he reversed and price went and took out the highs again. I did all I could not to laugh. If you look at June 16th, price takes out highs, then breaks new lows on the day and finishes higher, and yesterday took out the lows and wild day if you reversed by taking out the highs and stomach the retrace right after. This could be this system where you make a small fortune by starting with a large fortune.

I remember testing something like this fifteen years ago and didn't make me warm and fuzzy, I believe what worked better was fading it, but certainly not well enough for me to trade it.
More...


his specific strategy is to long/short a breakout for 1 ES pt, unload a contract, then target the 50% fib extension of the first 30 min range, unload a second contract, then target the 100% extension while moving stops to breakeven.

it might be 80% winners for the first es pt, which is a pretty sensible target
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top