3 thoughts about behavior
- Thread starter TradeWrecker
- Start date
"Any potential trader can become successful by capitalizing on personal growth in a short and orderly process"
the above is my statement. It is stated in a behavioral context.
"capitalizing on personal growth in a short and orderly process"
My version of "capitalizing on personal growth" is the dry humor Excel sheet I posted after calling the bluff of a non potential trader.
The Excel sheet shows a behavioral learning process. It is short (204 trades on 60 days).
And it is sublimely orderly:
1. Trade dominance and sentiment only. It is proven worldwide that dominance (increasing volume) drive price change according to market sentiment (a delta price measurement).
So daily I post the results of market dominance and its sentiment.
2. A person learns to NOT set targets. He enters late and leaves at the end of dominance. The relative possibilites of doimance ending are fourfold and that becomes clear.
3. A person learns how to use an emotional signal as a signal to make reasonable changes in his technique.
$ A person learns to deal with BF's A, B, C, and D.
6. A person learns how to add contracts. (beginning with 2 and going to 40 in 48 days.)
7. A person learns that dominants are NOT always separated by non dominants.
8. a person learns when to reverse and when to hold at the change at the end of dominance. You should consider learning this some time. See refco.
9. A person learns that trend monitoring and analysis follows an order of events.
10. A person learns trends overlap.
11. A person learns that an Excel is a good way to have a plan, strategy and carry out a routine.
12. A person learns that by dropping targets he can make about 300% of targets daily.
13. A person learns he has potential and he does not have to repeat emotional signals since he corrects the cause of the signal. He makes that connection and, in doing so, he demonstrates growth.
14. Going from 5,000 dollars to 3/4 of a million in 60 days can be done by a beginning potential trader. Or he can grow the capital @ 300% of that rate. CW may find this unbelievable.
Here are some views on how emotional signals result in "reasonable change in technique".
As "sentiment change during dominance" was discussed by the group (we (7 people) met from 6:15 to 10:00MST), trade 2 was a wash and trade 3 was a loss. The attached shows the prevailing unwaffled view at this time.
One homework assignment was to make up trading sheets for several days over the weekend. this is done on a platform that lets the time move forward (at a desired rate) so several days can be done in a setting.
"Low volume" was a topic that came from an emotional signal prompted by looking at the YM during the first PACE shift.
During all times the market was projected from one computer to a 52" wall monitor at one end of the table. 7 laptops or computers were also running. journals were also being used by all 6 people. All the illustrations of this thread were handed out between 6:15 and oopen at 6:30 with a couple of exceptions.
The illustrations was never showing since a different platform was projected (it is more elaborate and PRV is in yellow.
All combinations of relative volume were brought up by group members.
One member went well into cycle 2 content by recognizing that and exit of a non dominant may be done as a HOLD under the conditions that an ensuing dominant has the SAME sentiment. the wheels are turning and the addition of contracts from profits will be followed. It was also recognized that the actual profits wee running at about 300% of "targets" and it is understood that "targets" are NOT done in reality.
Additionally an FTT to FTT fractal was also annotated AND how nonstatiionarity works under acceleration vis a vis VE's was handled.
How does not using the precepts of behavioral Finance affect the rate of learning? The OP has clearly steted what is what under these circumstances and that failure is the theme of his three initial comments. we can agree it is a long arduous process for a potential trader learning to trade IF HE DOES NOT HAVE A GUIDE BASED ON BEHAVIORAL FINANCE.
THE STOCK TRADER USING PVT, MENTIONED, AS AN EXAMPLE, USED THE EQUIVALENT OF,THE ONE PAGER ENTITLED "UNUSUAL VOLUME".
So the discussion of potential traders learning IS a Behavioral Finance oreinted learning opportunity.
Today we got to see volatility increase and as a consequence dominant trades based on sentiment had hogher money velocities for profit making. Volatility is our friend during dominant price moves. This is a major "take away" from following an orderly process.
What about low volatility? A "reasonable change in techique" following an emotional signal handled this as well.
Is it a myth that high volatility is a time of higher risk? The OP's clients have been told this. They have also been told there will be poor years and poor months.
Cycle 1 is running at 40% of margin daily. How poor is this as a proven timeless method (over 50 years of use and performance in either stocks or commodities).
In 1790, Ricardo got the ball rolling. trend monitoring and analysis has been around for a long time.
As "sentiment change during dominance" was discussed by the group (we (7 people) met from 6:15 to 10:00MST), trade 2 was a wash and trade 3 was a loss. The attached shows the prevailing unwaffled view at this time.
One homework assignment was to make up trading sheets for several days over the weekend. this is done on a platform that lets the time move forward (at a desired rate) so several days can be done in a setting.
"Low volume" was a topic that came from an emotional signal prompted by looking at the YM during the first PACE shift.
During all times the market was projected from one computer to a 52" wall monitor at one end of the table. 7 laptops or computers were also running. journals were also being used by all 6 people. All the illustrations of this thread were handed out between 6:15 and oopen at 6:30 with a couple of exceptions.
The illustrations was never showing since a different platform was projected (it is more elaborate and PRV is in yellow.
All combinations of relative volume were brought up by group members.
One member went well into cycle 2 content by recognizing that and exit of a non dominant may be done as a HOLD under the conditions that an ensuing dominant has the SAME sentiment. the wheels are turning and the addition of contracts from profits will be followed. It was also recognized that the actual profits wee running at about 300% of "targets" and it is understood that "targets" are NOT done in reality.
Additionally an FTT to FTT fractal was also annotated AND how nonstatiionarity works under acceleration vis a vis VE's was handled.
How does not using the precepts of behavioral Finance affect the rate of learning? The OP has clearly steted what is what under these circumstances and that failure is the theme of his three initial comments. we can agree it is a long arduous process for a potential trader learning to trade IF HE DOES NOT HAVE A GUIDE BASED ON BEHAVIORAL FINANCE.
THE STOCK TRADER USING PVT, MENTIONED, AS AN EXAMPLE, USED THE EQUIVALENT OF,THE ONE PAGER ENTITLED "UNUSUAL VOLUME".
So the discussion of potential traders learning IS a Behavioral Finance oreinted learning opportunity.
Today we got to see volatility increase and as a consequence dominant trades based on sentiment had hogher money velocities for profit making. Volatility is our friend during dominant price moves. This is a major "take away" from following an orderly process.
What about low volatility? A "reasonable change in techique" following an emotional signal handled this as well.
Is it a myth that high volatility is a time of higher risk? The OP's clients have been told this. They have also been told there will be poor years and poor months.
Cycle 1 is running at 40% of margin daily. How poor is this as a proven timeless method (over 50 years of use and performance in either stocks or commodities).
In 1790, Ricardo got the ball rolling. trend monitoring and analysis has been around for a long time.
Just more deflection from you Ammo... interesting you think the references are funny; I doubt you'd make it through much of the cited research, but I do encourage you to try. You'll be a better trader for it, which bring up the same old point... We're still waiting on you to provide some legitimate basis for your statements. You have all this time write reply after reply but can't take the time to give us some of the work you've done to acquire such strong convictions...
typical retail fraudster... get bent.
TW - Anyone who's done any research understands that going "commercial" is not for the faint of heart. Your background, focus, experiences come from the professional side. If a trading approach can't be modeled, back-tested, (then forward tested / traded) to quantify results - it won't pass muster. As far as I'm concerned you get big points for building out and walking the CTA path.
Many historical studies confirm that most DIY retail small specs blow up accounts and leave the game. This makes good sense when you consider the retail small spec is over-matched against commercials who understand the true basis of a given trade. Large spec funds are next on the list in terms of market knowledge. They have research budgets which help qualify useful "edge" (besides the built in edge of size).
Exogenous shocks hang over all traders. When Refco blew up, I have no doubt the good were punished with the wicked. An ugly race to the exits to beat the bankruptcy everyone knew might be coming - always a recipe for a bad ending. On balance, I believe exchange traded derivatives are going to attract more capital as an asset class. Perhaps it's time for get off the sidelines.
Perhaps this thread deserves a "do over" under a more focused description / theme.
Jack - I think we can all see where the above is almost completely antithetical to TW's point of view. Your dissection of BF and your railing against CW reflect your own experiences. I'm sure it's not the first time you've been asked to "show me the money".
I'm not ready to write off the ideas or the efforts people have made to post them. I'm also not going to put my hard earned capital on the line based solely on what has been written here (show me the money or not). There are many version of "truth" that do work (for a time at least) in markets.
I just re-read all of my limited postings on ET. I'm beginning to draw the conclusion that posting on ET feeds the beast (ego) way more than it should.
Hope everyone has a great weekend.
