3 thoughts about behavior

Quote from outsource:

Jack, what does the 'day of cycle column' mean? How to interpret these reiterated numbers with each next cycle?
tnx
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Thank you for your question.

Anyone can inerpret anything any way they wish.

One aspect of learning to trade is the foibles of the potential trader. There is an expression: "knowing that you know".

Make up card 29. Write on it Day of Cycle. Make up a definition. Use the definition.

If it is correct, the definition will work for you. If it containes any of the BF foibles A, B, C or D or a combination of them, wirtwe on the card what you ran into that screwed up your being able to define the term.

Then change the term.

use the following information to help yourself deal with day of cycle.

there are 12 days in each cycle. The days follow an OOE. The OOE for a day of cycle, reliably follows no matter what cycle is underway. You learn that this OOE works. You learn it never
fails.

Print the Excel. Cut the top off the finncal pages so they can be folded over the record keeping pages after the pairs of pages are glued together. Punch the 8 pages and put them in a three ring binder.

Day one of cycle one has two trades. They are numbered trade 1 and trade 2. Both trades are dominant trades, meaning they take place on increasing volume. You are learning that increasing volume CONTINUES a HOLD on a profitable segment of the day.

Your question is telling you to make up cards for each column. then you make up cards for the words in the definitions you wrote for the words you wrote in the definitions. In this way you are building a "tree" in your mind. It will be a long term memory tree at some point if you are using the cards to learn. It will also be a tree if your are learning repeated failure.

When does one or the the tree dominant and make it impossible for the other tree to be built? everyone finds that out.

As ammo suggested, I am posting in CW'ese since what I usually suggest that people learn is too difficult to do. The questions in this thread set the level of conversation. that is how it has been always.
 
Quote from TIKITRADER:

Jack

Here is a monthly ES.
Do we have an HVS here with a resumption to dominant or do we have an entirely different situation going on here ?
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Thank you for your monthly chart.

You ask two questions.

Does everyone see the volume situation? Yes. What is the PRV volume for this month? Make an equation of two ratios to find out.

If you were Andrew Lo and you classified each bar on the chart, what kind of bar would be least frequent? Good. everyone can look at the bars and see that almost all adjacent bars are the same case from the possible cases of all bars.

By looking at the two matrices provided by MAK and converting them to monthly matirces, you get to determine the character of the presently forming bar. Daily, it continues to form according to the OOE for forming bars.

Where are we with respect to the Depression we are in? This is an OOE question.

Look at the chart carefully. For me, as an old person, it is somtething that I would not wish on anyone who is younger. I, especially, feel that it is very important that as many people as possible understand what is going on.

I commented in SEP2009, to point out the circumstances.

Here the emphasis is on BF and the foibles of traders. It is very important to keep taking stock of your continuing growth in trading.

Fractals nest and one each fractal an OOE is completed. this applies from the gross econometric level all the way down the the finest granularity of the markets.

It is wonderful to see that a person can keep track of what is going on in this Depression. It is possible to make a connection all the way across all of the fractals in the spectrum of nested fractals.

By marking the "response period" on your chart, you can get a better picture of the symmetry philosophy of history. (15JUL11 to 15SEP11) The explanations of 06MAY10 are what they are. It is clear that "self preservation" is now exceeding "following the regulations" and regulations are going to be "replaced".

"Uncertainty" with regard to the future is always a factor. NOV 10 is a facet right now.

Here is my statement in response to your question.

The volatility of the current point to point of the econometric level of the Depression is very low.

The "fleeing of capital" is evident and continues. Regulations are NOT bewing followed and enforcement is NOT happening.

As you saw when the depression began in JUL2006, it was not apparent to most and a "climax run" occurred. (see camtasia's archived at that time). Following this, your chart shows the point to point from 1 to 2. The VE is remarkable.

Therefore, what we all can expect is that getting to the FTT of the Depression is going to be an unfortunate experience for all that are not immune.

The absence of integrity that is so persistent, is the modus of the system.

I'm not going to go through some of the details of your chart. It is very important to pay attention to detail and not "rush" through doing a quickie. the chart is not a quickie. I compliment you on your work and for posting the chart. Your bookmarks are important.

One thing I like about this fractal level is the distribution of the cases. Internals are rare and so are laterals. The OB's are significant, however.

Cycles 1 through 5 will take us through the end of the year.

The key BF issue is how people use their emotions to signal making reasonable changes in their approach. this is plain and simple how iterative refinement is done to improve knowledgeand skills. Experience can be very purposeful.
 
As you saw there were many trades beyond the two required trades for day 1 of Cycle 1.

Does a person do the trades?

If he does, then he is doing a drill. The drill allows him to use a plan and a strategy while doing a routine.

The great thing is the Behavioral Finance foibles that keep showing up. Notice the BF advice is to make reasonable changes in your technique.

Attached is a simple example of how adding "a context" to the first trough and its following peak.

There are 22 more during the day.

This one met the target, too.
 

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Suppose you soup up your chart and ID the ten cases by putting boxes around to one that are "internals". You have to add ten cards for the cases and you have to include the word "internal" in the description where "internal" is applicable.

Internals are combined to treat then as one equivalent bar.

Today there were 25 internals (including OB's but not including laterals).

This chart has them as automated features.

What is the most common case associated with a dominant multi bar hold? What emotional effect do you get if you know this?
 

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