29 turning 30. 11 years of trading. First profiting year Journal 1

[Slope Trader]

9/3 -$3,666
balance: $30,733

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Wabu,

Your recent comments about NG made me think about the different methods of technical analysis that people use. Many traders like to talk about predictive TA versus reactive TA. They usually recommend that traders employ reactive TA and I agree with that.

Instead of predicting where price will be at some time in the future, reactive TA involves responding to a specific indication on the chart that is happening right now. The response of course takes into account the recent history on the chart (the context), but the emphasis is to only go long or go short when there is a specific clear indication to do so, i.e., to react to a signal.

You mentioned that you were sure that NG was going to be going down the next day or the one after and held onto shorts even as price kept going higher and higher on the daily charts over a 2-3 day period. It seems like this was engaging in a type of predictive TA that wasn't totally wrong (the price really was extremely overextended relative to oscillators and moving averages I look at). However, on the daily and longer-term intraday charts there didn't seem to be a clear signal or trigger indicating that prices were ready for a retracement back down and they kept producing strong bullish candles again and again.

I think that a more reactive approach would generate better performance and stability than a predictive one...

 

[wabu27]

9/7 +$8,805
Balance: $39,538

I'm alive boys. After having a good winning momentum I almost lost half my money in less than a week but I'm back. I'm so disappointed in how I traded. Never doing all-in on NG overnight ever again. What I'm more mad about outside of my position in NG is missing out on the MRNA run. I've been calling it for several days MRNA heading to 440 and because my money was tied up in NG, I missed the giant run. Couldn't trade stocks today because previous equity balance was $0 (everything in NG). Starting tomorrow going to focus primarily on stocks because that's where the money and safe haven is. Not futures...

 

[wabu27]

@wrbtrader I had 6 contracts when you asked. It was 8 but one by one it got liquidated cause of margin call

@Laissez Faire I was kidding about jumping off the bridge. I'm used to the losses. I was just angry about losing weeks of my life that I shouldn't have lost.

@Slope Trader You're definitely right about the predictive vs reactive method. I keep telling myself to do reactive but when I see a move coming on, I have to fight myself with all my mental strength to not go in. And I think a lot more money is to be made in predictive than reactive.. more risk = more reward I guess. I try to do small positions to satisfy my gambling urges and soothe my mental state but sometimes I get so excited that I go in too big too early. I try to change my style to the reactive style everyday but it's been a challenge.

 

[ChipShotTrader]

9/7 +$8,805
Balance: $39,538

I'm alive boys. After having a good winning momentum I almost lost half my money in less than a week but I'm back. I'm so disappointed in how I traded. Never doing all-in on NG overnight ever again. What I'm more mad about outside of my position in NG is missing out on the MRNA run. I've been calling it for several days MRNA heading to 440 and because my money was tied up in NG, I missed the giant run. Couldn't trade stocks today because previous equity balance was $0 (everything in NG). Starting tomorrow going to focus primarily on stocks because that's where the money and safe haven is. Not futures...

Awesome. Requoting myself (and now you will be taking a much shorter break, after you go into cash, and turn the screens off).

"Just skimmed over your journal. NG is a very dangerous instrument, and you mastered it in order to get back to stocks. I have traded it, back in early 2014, at 20-30 contracts a clip, and it was very difficult. Those 10:30am numbers on Thursday were simply too wild for me. I stopped trading it in 2017 (for good). There are better options out there. There is this cool thread that is getting me interested in stocks again, which I found by following @TrailerParkTed:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/gbas-2021-stock-phantasma.354298/

Forget about NG. Mastering NG should give you the confidence to focus on stocks exclusively, which are an easier instrument.

@Dustin is another trader doing stocks as well. I would follow him.

My advice to you is to take a break (there is "NO TOMORROW"), after this loss. Go into cash, and restart on Monday, September 13th. Take this time to FULLY disconnect. Grab a burger, eat pizza, go to a park, go to a dive bar, drink cheap wine & watch "Making a Murderer"/"Dexter"/"Money Heist" (ALL of it, with Chinese take-out), BUT cleanse yourself from ANYTHING market-related. Don't even log back in here, until that Monday.

Then restart trading, and assess your performance weekly. See how many consecutive positive weeks you can create."

PS. Otherwise, you will be recreating the same cycle. I mean, you have already been doing it for 11 long years, why continue?

 

[Overnight]

...I'm so disappointed in how I traded. Never doing all-in on NG overnight ever again. What I'm more mad about outside of my position in NG is missing out on the MRNA run...

Starting tomorrow going to focus primarily on stocks because that's where the money and safe haven is. Not futures...

I don't believe you. You have broken this rule two times already. Each time, you have lost more of your account.

We have been pleading with you to stop doing it.

Delete NG from your watch list, delete the charts, deletes all futures. Stick with stocks. That is where you are now making your money. Do NOT JUMP back into futures if the stocks give you a bad time. This is your final warning.

And listen to some music, man. Feed your head.

 

[wabu27]

9/8 +$411
balance: $39,949

Lucky and unlucky day. Put in 1 short and slept because i believe ng is going down and when i woke up to check ng was shot up… wtf. had a rollercoaster day. i never learn.

 

[Overnight]

... i never learn.

This is about the only truthful thing you have typed in this entire journal thread. Man, what a disappointment you are.

Here's my advice to you, since you will not listen. Just ignore all stocks, and start studying RBOB futures and learn that instrument.

For shits and giggles, just go long or short 7 contracts on the thing right now. See what happens. You are *this* close to alienating all people here who are trying to help you become the successful trader that you can be. You are basically shitting on us. It is NOT appreciated.

 

[ChipShotTrader]

This is about the only truthful thing you have typed in this entire journal thread. Man, what a disappointment you are.

Here's my advice to you, since you will not listen. Just ignore all stocks, and start studying RBOB futures and learn that instrument.

For shits and giggles, just go long or short 7 contracts on the thing right now. See what happens. You are *this* close to alienating all people here who are trying to help you become the successful trader that you can be. You are basically shitting on us. It is NOT appreciated.

@wabu27 THIS: 9/7 +$8,805

Was a Gift from God. And yet, you continue with NG, when your original plan according to this thread was to return to your true love, STOCKS...

I have traded NG before, and I threw in the towel in 2017, as I did not want to have a stroke or a heart attack later in life. I was hooked on it for 4 years, and I feel great to no longer look at it.

So, based on my experience, I suggested you take a break (even pointing out exactly what to do). This is NO time for celebration. This is time for reflection, away from the screens (for at least a week). I have done this before. You will get insights into your behavior, which I find erratic (the whole Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha thing is bizarre).

Yet you continue with NG?

PS. If you are trading off charts, I hope you are aware there are better charting applications than IB (think TICK data, at 180T for NG). IB's charts are prehistoric, and I am being kind...

 

[ChipShotTrader]

Major Motivation!!!

 

[ChipShotTrader]

Another cool video for @wabu27