Depends upon which race you are running.
I would not run without an appreciation of the power of compounding gains.
$286 left
- Thread starter hurricane_sh
- Start date
Depends upon which race you are running.
I would not run without an appreciation of the power of compounding gains.
Ok let me try this a different way to finally get the point across clearly and completely.
If you are consistent, compounding will follow.
If you are not, it will not.
Should be self evident but whatever.
I beg to disagree on:
You will do very well even if you have very lumpy, non consistent returns as long as you have overall positive expectancy and keep compounding.
Consistency is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for compounding to occur. Without a plan, it is frequently interrupted.
To OP, look at the nominal on your futures trade. Then look at how much money you have. You are trading on 50x leverage. If you are top 100 traders in the world, what probability would you give that you would not go break within a few days with that account size? Serious question, I want to know your answer.
If you are able to make $10 a day, you would be making 4%, near 5x on the current annual risk free rate (haven't seen 1 year in a week who knows where it is lol). So say the risk free rate is as high as 1%. You should make $2 a year. How is 4% a day serious?
If you contemplate questions like at ask in the first paragraph you will realize why you always lose. Because you should always lose. Go to Excel and create a distribution of scenarios with realistic profit and loss. Be really, really nice to yourself and think you are a God. Then run it through several random scenarios and see how much you bust, despite being a God.
I have no idea your trading skill, but your expectations are beyond ludicrous (I say that respectfully). If you have a 20K account and perhaps trade nominal futures of say 15K to 50K, no more leveraged than nominal of 100K, and are really good, perhaps you could make 10K-30K in a year....if you are on the elite, God scale. I'm assuming you are for this argument, because regardless as to if you were the best trader ever, you will go broke endlessly with the expectations you have put out for yourself.
So, most important question, how much nominal did you have exposed at a given time when you had 25K? I'm thinking your answer will likely fill in the blank as to why you are now bust.
If you are able to make $10 a day, you would be making 4%, near 5x on the current annual risk free rate (haven't seen 1 year in a week who knows where it is lol). So say the risk free rate is as high as 1%. You should make $2 a year. How is 4% a day serious?
If you contemplate questions like at ask in the first paragraph you will realize why you always lose. Because you should always lose. Go to Excel and create a distribution of scenarios with realistic profit and loss. Be really, really nice to yourself and think you are a God. Then run it through several random scenarios and see how much you bust, despite being a God.
I have no idea your trading skill, but your expectations are beyond ludicrous (I say that respectfully). If you have a 20K account and perhaps trade nominal futures of say 15K to 50K, no more leveraged than nominal of 100K, and are really good, perhaps you could make 10K-30K in a year....if you are on the elite, God scale. I'm assuming you are for this argument, because regardless as to if you were the best trader ever, you will go broke endlessly with the expectations you have put out for yourself.
So, most important question, how much nominal did you have exposed at a given time when you had 25K? I'm thinking your answer will likely fill in the blank as to why you are now bust.
To the OP: on the day you posted your account, out of curiosity, why no short trades? Considering that ES never traded above the opening few minutes again until 3:30. Do you use indicators, look at charts, or just trade by gut? Why is your target profit so close to your stop loss? For instance, if your target and stop are the same(as in 4 points or something) and you're right half the time, you lose just from commissions. Why not use a trailing stop instead? Do you use the same criteria for your entries every day and every trade?
EDIT: I'm coming back to edit this. I know that some brokerages will let you trade down to $100 on the micro's. Some, maybe less. So, if you're now back to your original amount, plus a buck, you've got $287 left. And if your brokerage will close you out when you drop below a hundred, that means you've got $187 to trade. Different firms may let you go down to 50, or so, I don't know. and they'll all charge you if they close your trade, too. I'm sure you're aware of that. However, using my numbers, you have $187 and free will. Decide how much loss you'll take. Don't forget, if your stop is set and it is moving fast against you, you may well get filled below your number. In an economic data event, when everybody pulls their bids/asks, WELL below your number. So, if you think $18.70(including commissions) is an acceptable loss, you've got 10 trades left. $23.37 loss = 8 trades, etc. Choose them very, very carefully. VERY. I'd be looking for repeating patterns. But, more importantly, look inside yourself for that fatal flaw. It's in plain view, you just keep looking the other way. I don't know what it is, but I know my own.
There was an inscription at the temple of Apollo at Delphi that translates as "Know Thyself" Nothing is more important to a trader.
EDIT: I'm coming back to edit this. I know that some brokerages will let you trade down to $100 on the micro's. Some, maybe less. So, if you're now back to your original amount, plus a buck, you've got $287 left. And if your brokerage will close you out when you drop below a hundred, that means you've got $187 to trade. Different firms may let you go down to 50, or so, I don't know. and they'll all charge you if they close your trade, too. I'm sure you're aware of that. However, using my numbers, you have $187 and free will. Decide how much loss you'll take. Don't forget, if your stop is set and it is moving fast against you, you may well get filled below your number. In an economic data event, when everybody pulls their bids/asks, WELL below your number. So, if you think $18.70(including commissions) is an acceptable loss, you've got 10 trades left. $23.37 loss = 8 trades, etc. Choose them very, very carefully. VERY. I'd be looking for repeating patterns. But, more importantly, look inside yourself for that fatal flaw. It's in plain view, you just keep looking the other way. I don't know what it is, but I know my own.
There was an inscription at the temple of Apollo at Delphi that translates as "Know Thyself" Nothing is more important to a trader.
Last edited:
Sure you're not there already and that it's merely a matter of growing your account (instead of withdrawing)...?
Or are these 5 figure traders making that return on a similar capital base as you?
You're only scalping equities by the way? Not futures?
Nice job.
That's a distinct possibility, but I hesitate to say I'm fully there. I'll explain at the end.
I've withdraw a decent chunk of $ from my winnings so far these last few months. I like to withdraw to pay bills. It's a good ka-ching feeling as well. Also, there's risk of losing the gains and not enjoying the profits made. While my winning percentage is 70%+, there are days I'm down. lol. So in theory if I had kept them in there I could trade bigger and bigger and bigger sizes to get to the 5 figures day. But then again, I could take a bigger hit too. So I rather withdraw my winnings and keep the account balance somewhat the same.
I don't know the exact size of these 5 figure traders but from their P&L and shares trade I can safely assume they are trading capital base bigger than mine. I'm not sure how much bigger.
My stats are for scalping equities. The funny thing is I've achieved similar stats scalping index micro futures mainly MNQs. I was making $1K+/day just scalping MNQs but that was during the high volatility crazy moves in Feb/March. I doubt I would achieve the same profits when markets cool down on such few MNQs contracts. I was only trading 4-6 MNQs which is not even 1 NQ and I was making $1K+/day! I captured 100pts moves using MNQs. It was wild.
But the main takeaway is that I could probably achieve $1K/day now but would have to trade multiple NQ contracts. But the margins on IB are ridiculous. They required something like 26K+ for just 1 NQ on my IRA account. At least during the high volatility months. I'm not so sure the amount now. But my point is that I used to be able to trade 3 full NQ contracts but now I barely do one NQ lot.
I have the skills now to take MANY POINTS out of each NQ moves and making over $1K+/day. I'm just not using it b/c I realize it was too much work to focus on NQ futures chart and my equities charts. So, I decided to focus on just equities with the $0 commission model. I have jokingly thought that I can probably start a chat room and beats hands down the long list of furus on Youtube trading either index futures or stocks! I've seen furus posting winnings as little as a few hundred bucks and they have a following. ROFL. But I have no time for running that. I'm not sure if I want to expose my edge either. If you have a real edge(s) then you definitely don't want to trouble yourself with subs etc. You would rather figure how to scale it.
Getting back to your 5 figures comment if I'm there, the reason I think I'm not quite there yet is because these traders take a BIGGER CHUNK out of the moves. Whereas I just take pennies out of the moves. I'm still constantly evolving. I'll get to the point where I can take a big chunk of the move on SIZE. Then 5 figures days will be a regular occurrences just as low 4 figures days are normal for me now. I need to learn to hold my winners longer. So for the exact same trades I've made in the last few months if I just held winners longer I would see the occasional 5 figures day. So the promise is out there...
thanks for the congrats and encouragement.
Last edited:
Overall positive expectancy = consistent.
You must further plan to take advantage of compounding. @trader99, for example, has achieved consistency. He has no plan as he's described his current approach to benefit from compounding his gains. Nothing wrong with that, and I by no means am criticizing him. His consistency is necessary for him to benefit from compounding in the future, but it is in and of itself not sufficient to allow compounding to occur. There must be an additional refinement to the plan.
Seems clear to me. Not sure why it isn't clear to you.