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25-stock paper portfolio
- Thread starter waditude
- Start date
<i>How are you coming up with these and WHY would you want to ignore dividends? Dividends acct for about 50% of gains in most longterm portfolios when they are reinvested in the same stock. Also, if you look at many (I estimate ~50%) of those stocks that I looked at are in obvious downtrends. Why would you make a "long only" portfolio that has stocks in comfirmed downtrends? You would be better off in cash than these stocks or in choosing stocks starting new uptrends or at least consolidating and paying dividends. I dont get the methodology here....just seems random and haphazard guesses that you have made in trying to diversify this portfolio.
I think you coould replace MANY if not almost all of these and come up with 25 or even only 10-15 that will outperform the S&P ESPECIALLY when you include dividends and still provide sufficient diversification.
I would suggest the following 25 stocks instead:
LLY, PG, CLX, CVX, EC, MSFT, INTC, AGNC, NNN, PSA, PFE, ABT, LMT, TGT, MCD, MO, PM, RAI, CAG, HNZ, DTE, D, ED, LINE, KMP.
Every single one of these pay at least 2% dividend and most pay much more. Also all of these are either consolidating or in uptrends on a weekly chart. I just dont get why you chose these stocks on your list. WHY disregard dividends?....just does NOT make sense if your ulitmate goal is to beat the S&P and especially if you want to beat it by 10% in a mostly position trading type of "system".
Please explain your "strategy"...
BTW,...I suspect the 25 stock portfolio I listed will EASILY outperform your 25 stocks over the last part of the year. You should keep track to see. </i>
N54 Fan,
I don't WANT to ignore dividends, I am simply not willing to put in the effort to track them. In no case can they be large enough to be a decisive factor in whether to commit to this approach.
I will not keep track of your picks, but I invite you track them publicly if you think they have merit. If they perform well, I will be happy to offer my congratulations.
My testing has not revealed that "being in an obvious downtrend" should exclude a pick.
The selection criteria includes factors including free cash flow, debt, earnings, liquidity, and diversification. Nothing very odd.
I certainly expect that there will be times when one is better off in cash, and in actual trading, I do employ some market timing to try to identify these times. But the object of this portfolio is to beat the S&P without timing.
I agree that 25 stocks is more than is needed for diversification, however, it does increase the statistical validity of the performance.
Waditude
I think you coould replace MANY if not almost all of these and come up with 25 or even only 10-15 that will outperform the S&P ESPECIALLY when you include dividends and still provide sufficient diversification.
I would suggest the following 25 stocks instead:
LLY, PG, CLX, CVX, EC, MSFT, INTC, AGNC, NNN, PSA, PFE, ABT, LMT, TGT, MCD, MO, PM, RAI, CAG, HNZ, DTE, D, ED, LINE, KMP.
Every single one of these pay at least 2% dividend and most pay much more. Also all of these are either consolidating or in uptrends on a weekly chart. I just dont get why you chose these stocks on your list. WHY disregard dividends?....just does NOT make sense if your ulitmate goal is to beat the S&P and especially if you want to beat it by 10% in a mostly position trading type of "system".
Please explain your "strategy"...
BTW,...I suspect the 25 stock portfolio I listed will EASILY outperform your 25 stocks over the last part of the year. You should keep track to see. </i>
N54 Fan,
I don't WANT to ignore dividends, I am simply not willing to put in the effort to track them. In no case can they be large enough to be a decisive factor in whether to commit to this approach.
I will not keep track of your picks, but I invite you track them publicly if you think they have merit. If they perform well, I will be happy to offer my congratulations.
My testing has not revealed that "being in an obvious downtrend" should exclude a pick.
The selection criteria includes factors including free cash flow, debt, earnings, liquidity, and diversification. Nothing very odd.
I certainly expect that there will be times when one is better off in cash, and in actual trading, I do employ some market timing to try to identify these times. But the object of this portfolio is to beat the S&P without timing.
I agree that 25 stocks is more than is needed for diversification, however, it does increase the statistical validity of the performance.
Waditude
From Monday's 8/29 open to 11/18 Friday's close
S&P 500 + 3.2%
model + 5.1%
So far, the model portfolio has gained 1.9% vs the S&P over a period of 12 weeks.
The portfolio will rebalance on Monday's open with the following stocks:
AFAM
AIT
CFK
CORE
CRDN
CTGX
ENS
FSTR
GCO
GPX
HGG
IPHS
LL
LMIA
MTSC
NUTR
OVTI
SNX
SYKE
SYX
TECD
TTEC
TTEK
TXRH
UACL
S&P 500 + 3.2%
model + 5.1%
So far, the model portfolio has gained 1.9% vs the S&P over a period of 12 weeks.
The portfolio will rebalance on Monday's open with the following stocks:
AFAM
AIT
CFK
CORE
CRDN
CTGX
ENS
FSTR
GCO
GPX
HGG
IPHS
LL
LMIA
MTSC
NUTR
OVTI
SNX
SYKE
SYX
TECD
TTEC
TTEK
TXRH
UACL
From Monday's 8/29 open to 12/15 Friday's close
S&P 500 + 0.5%
Russell 2000 -1.2%
model + 2.3%
So far, the model portfolio has gained 1.8% vs the S&P 500 and 3.5% over the Russell 2000 over a period of 16 weeks. The Russell 2000 is the more appropriate benchmark index for comparison and I may drop comparison vs the S&P 500 in the future.
The portfolio will rebalance on Monday's open with the following stocks:
AFAM
AIT
COHR
CTGX
CVG
DSW
FRED
FSTR
GPX
HGG
HITK
JCOM
LL
LMIA
LNN
MTSC
NSU
QLGC
SHOO
STNR
SYKE
SYX
TECD
TXRH
UEIC
S&P 500 + 0.5%
Russell 2000 -1.2%
model + 2.3%
So far, the model portfolio has gained 1.8% vs the S&P 500 and 3.5% over the Russell 2000 over a period of 16 weeks. The Russell 2000 is the more appropriate benchmark index for comparison and I may drop comparison vs the S&P 500 in the future.
The portfolio will rebalance on Monday's open with the following stocks:
AFAM
AIT
COHR
CTGX
CVG
DSW
FRED
FSTR
GPX
HGG
HITK
JCOM
LL
LMIA
LNN
MTSC
NSU
QLGC
SHOO
STNR
SYKE
SYX
TECD
TXRH
UEIC
The Russell 2000 is the most appropriate benchmark index for comparison so I have dropped comparison vs the S&P 500. The model began on 8/28/11.
Cummulative gain (loss) of model vs Russell 2000 index:
4 weeks 1.5%
8 3.2
12 3.2
16 4.0
20 3.5%
The portfolio will rebalance on Monday's open with the following stocks:
AFAM
AIT
CTGX
DSW
FRED
FSTR
GPX
HGG
HITK
JCOM
KEYN
LL
LMIA
MTSC
NSU
OVTI
SHOO
STEC
STNR
SYKE
SYX
TECD
TXRH
UEIC
VPRT
Cummulative gain (loss) of model vs Russell 2000 index:
4 weeks 1.5%
8 3.2
12 3.2
16 4.0
20 3.5%
The portfolio will rebalance on Monday's open with the following stocks:
AFAM
AIT
CTGX
DSW
FRED
FSTR
GPX
HGG
HITK
JCOM
KEYN
LL
LMIA
MTSC
NSU
OVTI
SHOO
STEC
STNR
SYKE
SYX
TECD
TXRH
UEIC
VPRT
The Russell 2000 is the most appropriate benchmark index for comparison so I have dropped comparison vs the S&P 500. The model began on 8/28/11. Gain/loss figures in the previous post were off slightly and are corrected in this post.
The model appears to be on track to meet my goal of 1% gain per month versus the benchmark index. Gains are significantly higher if I choose a subset of the 25 picks, but having more picks is a better test of the model.
Cummulative gain (loss) of model vs Russell 2000 index:
4 weeks 1.3%
8 3.2
12 2.8
16 2.7
20 4.9
24 7.2
The model will rebalance on Monday's open with the following picks:
AFAM
BIRT
BKR
CBOU
CECO
CSS
CVG
DSW
FSTR
FTEK
HEI
IRBT
JCOM
KFY
MCF
OMPI
SEAC
SMSC
STEC
STNR
SYKE
SYX
TECD
UEIC
ZIGO
The model appears to be on track to meet my goal of 1% gain per month versus the benchmark index. Gains are significantly higher if I choose a subset of the 25 picks, but having more picks is a better test of the model.
Cummulative gain (loss) of model vs Russell 2000 index:
4 weeks 1.3%
8 3.2
12 2.8
16 2.7
20 4.9
24 7.2
The model will rebalance on Monday's open with the following picks:
AFAM
BIRT
BKR
CBOU
CECO
CSS
CVG
DSW
FSTR
FTEK
HEI
IRBT
JCOM
KFY
MCF
OMPI
SEAC
SMSC
STEC
STNR
SYKE
SYX
TECD
UEIC
ZIGO
The Russell 2000 is the most appropriate benchmark index for comparison so I have dropped comparison vs the S&P 500. The model began on 8/28/11.
The last month was an underperforming one, putting the model behind the projected gain of 1% per month average.
Cummulative gain (loss) of model vs Russell 2000 index:
4 weeks 1.3%
8 3.2
12 2.8
16 2.7
20 4.9
24 7.2
28 3.7
The model will rebalance on Monday's open with the following picks:
AFAM
BIRT
BKR
CBOU
CRDN
CSS
CUB
DSW
EGY
FEIC
FSTR
GCOM
IRBT
JCOM
KFY
MFN
OMPI
RAIL
STNR
SYKE
SYNA
SYX
TRLG
TTEC
ZIGO
The last month was an underperforming one, putting the model behind the projected gain of 1% per month average.
Cummulative gain (loss) of model vs Russell 2000 index:
4 weeks 1.3%
8 3.2
12 2.8
16 2.7
20 4.9
24 7.2
28 3.7
The model will rebalance on Monday's open with the following picks:
AFAM
BIRT
BKR
CBOU
CRDN
CSS
CUB
DSW
EGY
FEIC
FSTR
GCOM
IRBT
JCOM
KFY
MFN
OMPI
RAIL
STNR
SYKE
SYNA
SYX
TRLG
TTEC
ZIGO