2200 is strong support for S&P 500, will it break ?

S2007S said:
Agree. I heard there was tens of billions of outflows during December's collapse...that must be all that same money wanting out now wanting in.
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If you can't tell who is the patsy at the table, you're the patsy... Plug is pulled as soon as Moody's gets the call to downgrade all those BBB's, which a lot are suppose to be in Junk already but would crashed credit markets. Prices of GE CDS roughly doubled in November and the dollar amount of swaps outstanding quadrupled to $836 million, the highest amount of any corporate borrower in the world, according to IHS Markit and DTCC Data. Wall Street banks with lending commitments to GE also are buying CDS to protect loans to the company, according to people familiar with the trades. Banks account for about 10% of the recent GE CDS transactions, one of the people said

https://www.business-standard.com/a...levels-is-roiling-markets-118111600022_1.html
 
Stockolio said:
If you can't tell who is the patsy at the table, you're the patsy... Plug is pulled as soon as Moody's gets the call to downgrade all those BBB's, which a lot are suppose to be in Junk already but would crashed credit markets. Prices of GE CDS roughly doubled in November and the dollar amount of swaps outstanding quadrupled to $836 million, the highest amount of any corporate borrower in the world, according to IHS Markit and DTCC Data. Wall Street banks with lending commitments to GE also are buying CDS to protect loans to the company, according to people familiar with the trades. Banks account for about 10% of the recent GE CDS transactions, one of the people said

https://www.business-standard.com/a...levels-is-roiling-markets-118111600022_1.html
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So what is the trade?
 
noddyboy said:
So what are you going to do?
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I have been adding short ETFs ...didn't add anything today or yesterday, just added some puts on XOP and XLF.... adding short ETFs on each 500+ point Dow interval.
Markets will retest lows, could they surge to new highs? Of course, but I see absolutely nothing to keep them there. This is a gift to those who want to sell and wait it out, I have some money on the long side sitting in a retirement account mostly in small caps and that will be entirely liquidated once the Russel 2000 makes it back to mid 2018 highs....
 
S2007S said:
I have been adding short ETFs ...didn't add anything today or yesterday, just added some puts on XOP and XLF.... adding short ETFs on each 500+ point Dow interval.
Markets will retest lows, could they surge to new highs? Of course, but I see absolutely nothing to keep them there. This is a gift to those who want to sell and wait it out, I have some money on the long side sitting in a retirement account mostly in small caps and that will be entirely liquidated once the Russel 2000 makes it back to mid 2018 highs....
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I find the govt shutdown and the China trade war completely unpredictable right now. If they are resolved, we will surely rally in the short run. Fundamentals don't seem to matter.
 
Yes but everything ends when Moody's gets the call to start rating debt honestly, then it starts to downgrade a good part of 3 trillion+ of BBB's, which 1 Trillion of that 3 is already suppose to be in Junk but for some odd reason they rate them as IG. GE 100 billion debt already yields same as junk, but moody's won't downgrade them cause it would start the collapse... Basically the financial collapse comes down to Moody's, the second they get the call to pull the plug and rate the debt as they should, it's over... Shutdown and China tariffs is completely irrelevant to what is at hand in credit markets, fundamentals do not matter until credit pops, then it does!
 

Without China the world economies are completely worthless!!!!!!!




China says its economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018. That's the lowest official pace in 28 years
  • China on Monday announced that its official economic growth came in at 6.6 percent in 2018 — the slowest pace since 1990.
  • Full-year GDP growth was expected to come in at 6.6 percent, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
  • Fourth-quarter GDP growth matched expectations at 6.4 percent on-year from 6.5 percent in the third quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/21/chi...-economic-growth-for-fourth-quarter-year.html
 
S2007S said:
Without China the world economies are completely worthless!!!!!!!




China says its economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018. That's the lowest official pace in 28 years
  • China on Monday announced that its official economic growth came in at 6.6 percent in 2018 — the slowest pace since 1990.
  • Full-year GDP growth was expected to come in at 6.6 percent, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
  • Fourth-quarter GDP growth matched expectations at 6.4 percent on-year from 6.5 percent in the third quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/21/chi...-economic-growth-for-fourth-quarter-year.html
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Chinese govt has complete control over everything, so it won't crash since they won't let it.
 
Central banks get to print Trillions, which leads to high inflation and high consumer debt servicing, in turn crush an economy. It's currently happening, Consumer Debt and Corporate debt is real and has serious effects. You can't print your way to prosperity, there are slower and more effective ways to achieving it, but the dictator and his puppets royally screwed up. They will have a similar situation as Japan's lost decade, I would say from 2020-2030... If you are going in a deep recession that is not caused by lack of credit, with current levels of QE they have been having since 2014, it is clear recession effects are coming from offshoring of jobs and not lack of credit like boom bust cycles entail, job offshoring is a permanent effect... Look at Detroit for example, unfortunately after next round of QE in US, inflation will get pretty rampant as well considering likely size of the QE, if you add Universal Basic Income few years down the road, 15 hour wage would be equivalent to 10-11 hour wage now, essentially killing any hourly wage growth progress and going into further inequality, unsustainable middle class
 
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